Gale Warning 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 AM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will produce below average temperatures across much
of the state through Thursday. A major pattern shift is underway
and will manifest Thursday as powerful frontal system along the
northwest coast. Very strong south winds along with snow and
blowing snow will likely lead to blizzard conditions at times
along portions of the Chukchi Coast, western Brooks Range, and
western Arctic Coast. Additionally, warmer temperatures associated
with this system will spread to the Interior over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
A mid level trough spanning Mackenzie Bay to the Alaska Panhandle
will track east, bringing any remaining cloud cover with it.
Ridging will be the dominant feature over much of the state
through Thursday, though a very weak shortwave will move across
the West Coast today before dissipating over the Interior early
Thursday. A strong ridge in the central Bering Sea will be forced
up and over a cutoff low south of the Aleutians near 40N. This
will reinforce the omega block currently over the north central
Pacific. Deep longwave troughing over Siberia and the northwest
Pacific will push a series of shortwaves through the northern
Bering Sea, across Siberia, and into the eastern Chukchi Sea. This
general pattern is expected to persist well into next week,
supported by an abnormally strong omega high in the Gulf of Alaska
at around 575 dam.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winds have finally decreased across the Beaufort coast as low
pressure tracks east across Mackenzie Bay. High pressure to the
north will support cold temperatures and and otherwise benign
weather for much of the region, though a weak front will bring
some cloud cover and a few snow showers to the Chukchi Coast
today. A strong front will approach the Chukchi Coast Thursday,
bringing very strong southerly winds as well as snow and blowing
snow. Blizzard conditions appear likely for much of the immediate
coast from Utqiagvik west, as well as the western Brooks Range.
Sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph are possible with gusts to 70 mph
or greater at times. The strongest winds will generally be felt
from Kivalina north to Point Hope, Cape Lisburne, and Point Lay.
Winds 30 to 50 mph are possible as far north as Utqiagvik late
Thursday. As such, Winter Storm Watches are in place for this
region. Expect strong southwest winds to spread west along the
coast Friday. Passes in the eastern Brooks Range will also be
targets for hazardous winds Friday. Temperatures will be
increasing as the warm front tracks east across the Interior.
Above average temperatures can be expected this weekend into next
week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Areas of low clouds and light snow showers are expected today
with the passage of a weak front. Skies may again clear briefly
before the arrival of a strong front Thursday. South winds will
begin to increase across the coast Thursday morning. The strongest
winds will generally remain farther north and impact St. Lawrence
Island, the western Seward Peninsula, and the Chukchi Coast.
Sustained winds of 30 to 50 mph could gust to 70 mph or greater at
times for these areas. This combined with snow and blowing snow
has prompted Winter Storm Warnings for these areas. Areas of the
coast from Nome south can expect winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts to
50 mph at times late Thursday into Friday. Precipitation through
Friday morning will be confined mainly north of the Bering Strait.
However, by Friday afternoon, the front will tap into moisture
associated with a cutoff low in the north central Pacific, This
will send a surge of moisture northward, affecting much of the
remainder of the coast late Friday, as well as the Interior by
early Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temperatures will remain colder than normal today, though the
arrival of cloud cover late this evening should initiate a
warming trend Thursday. A strong warm front will sweep across the
Interior Friday, instigating a much warmer pattern for this
weekend into next week. Gusty winds up to 40 mph can be expected
over areas of higher elevation Friday. A few snow showers can be
expected Saturday, though high pressure is expected to build
across the Interior Sunday into early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Strong weather system is expected to impact the northwest coast
beginning Thursday. At this point, strong south winds and warmer
temperatures are expected. Thick, extensive sea ice coverage
across the eastern Bering Sea should prevent any coastal flooding
issues, though we will continue to monitor closely.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ207-
AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ213.
&&

COWMAN MAR 20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1117 AM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

AKZ207-209>214-130000-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock,
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Nome,
White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim,
Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller,
Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua,
and Pitkas Point
1117 AM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...Strong Storm will bring Elevated Water levels to Coastal
Areas...

A strong storm moving across Siberia into the Arctic will bring
strong winds and elevated coastal waters to the area Thursday into
Friday.

Winds will increase significantly Wednesday night and Thursday and
persist into Friday afternoon before diminishing. Water levels
along the coast will rise 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide
line and may inundate some low lying areas, and will be pushed up
on top of the ice around open leads.

With the very strong winds there is the threat of an ice push
near Nome, but the probability remains low at this time.

Residents can prepare for this event by ensuring all valuables are
moved well away from the shoreline, and objects that can be blown
around by the wind are secured.

For the latest Warnings, Advisories, and forecasts go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks.