Gale Warning 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
317 PM AKST Sat Dec 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast and an Arctic Front over
the Brooks Range crest then retreat north on Mon and weaken along
the coast on Tue.

A weak short wave trough that lies from Gambell to Aniak will move
to the Bering Strait to Denali by 3am Sun, then dissipate along
the Brooks Range by 3pm Sun. There is an areas of snow showers
along this trough over the West Coast that will become scattered
show showers tonight over the Western Interior, and then Isolated
snow showers over the Northern Interior Sun.

An extremely deep low in the Western Aleutians south of Adak will
move into the southeast Bering by 3pm Sun, to the Central Bering
by 3pm Mon, then weaken slowly in place through Tue. This will
bring snow, easterly gales force winds, and near blizzard
conditions to zones 213 and 214 tonight, which will spread north
along the West Coast and Western Interior Sun and Sun night with
conditions lasting into Mon. Could see heavy snow along the east
side of the Nulato Hills with 6-12 inches a possible Sun into Mon.
Could see snow change to freezing rain south of Anvik Sun, and
then south of Anvik to Denali on Mon and Tue.

This feature will also cause south winds through Alaska Range
Passes Sun PM through Mon PM, and east winds to develop across
the Interior Sun through Mon.

Conditions will remain generally warmer and wetter than normal
over Northern Alaska into early next week, then gradually cool to
near normal by the end of next week.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a strong ridge over Western
Canada and Eastern Alaska, and a deep trough over the Bering Sea
and the Northwest and North Central Pacific with moderate south
flow aloft over Northern Alaska. A series of strong short wave
troughs will move east across the North Pacific and then move
northeast across mainland Alaska, digging into the Long wave ridge
and flattening it late next week. As the ridge flattens next
week, the south flow aloft weakens, and a second long wave over NE
Canada will eject energy and cold area west into Northern Alaska
by the end of next week. This all means that the generally warm
and wetter than normal pattern now over Northern Alaska will
persist into early next week, then gradually cool to near normal
by the end of next week.

A weak short wave trough that lies from Gambell to Aniak will
move to the Bering Strait to Denali by 3am Sun, then dissipate
along the Brooks Range by 3pm Sun. There is an areas of snow
showers along this trough over the West Coast that will become
scattered show showers tonight over the Western Interior, and then
Isolated snow showers over the Northern Interior Sun.

850 MB temps rise above freezing just north of the Alaska Range
W of Fairbanks Mon night and Tue. This will bring a slight chance
of freezing precip to that area Mon and Tue.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast will persist into Tue.
This is causing areas of stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast
that will persist into Tue.

A very deep low south of Adak will move into the southeast Bering
Sea as a 944 MB low by 3pm Sun, to the Central Bering as a 956 mb
low by 3pm Mon, then weaken slowly in place through Tue. A front
associated with this will move into the SE Bering Sea tonight, to
St Matthew Is to the YK Delta to Bristol Bay by 3pm Sun, to the
Bering Strait to Iliamna by 3am Mon, and to Near Point Hope to
McGrath by 3pm Mon, then weakening in place. This will bring
snow, easterly gales force winds, and near blizzard conditions to
zones 213 and 214 tonight, which will spread north along the West
Coast and Western Interior Sun and Sun night with conditions
lasting into Mon. Could see heavy snow along the east side of the
Nulato Hills with 6-12 inches a possible Sun into Mon. Could see
snow change to freezing rain south of Anvik Sun, and then south of
Anvik to Denali on Mon and Tue. This feature will also cause
south winds through Alaska Range Passes Sun PM through Mon PM, and
east winds to develop across the Interior Sun through Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialized well aloft and show similar solutions through
3pm Mon. After that time, the ECMF is the odd one out with the
other models bringing a strong short wave into the Kodiak area by
3pm Tue while the ECMF haws a very weak short wave. Given the very
deep long wave trough over the Bering and Northern Pacific, and
the strong energetics rotating through this features, favor the
strong short wave shown by the GFS/Canadian/ NAM.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 3am
Sun, then the NAM and GFS have much higher amounts on the east
side of the Nulato Hills than the ECMF for Sun and Sun night.
Prefer the NAM and GFS precip through Sun night. After that time,
the NAM brings a well defined front north across the Interior with
precip Mon night and Tue. At this time, due to the downslope
pattern prefer the drier Interior shown by the GFS Mon night and
Tue.

Bottom line for models, is prefer a blend of the NAM and GFS
models for temps, precip, clouds through 3AM Mon, then the GFS
for precip, temps and clouds Mon into Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ216.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ212.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB DEC 20