Gale Warning 126, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1234 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern over Northern Alaska remains relatively quiet
especially as compared to the last couple of weeks with no watches,
warnings or advisories currently in effect nor expected through
the weekend. Gusty winds are expected along the Chukchi Sea
Coastline as well as the Bering Strait through Saturday. Gusty
winds are also expected from Delta Junction to Nenana as a weak
Tanana Valley continues into Saturday. Mostly cloudy skies and
light snow is expected over the Central and Eastern Interior to
the south of the Yukon River Sunday into Monday. Easterly winds
will become northerly for most of the West Coast and Western
Interior and will help limit precipitation chances in these areas.
A stalled and weakening front over the North Slope will produce
low stratus ceilings and flurries as well as gusty southeast winds
along the coast through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering
Sea and a ridge over Western Canada and Eastern Alaska. Several
strong short waves making their way around the trough will dig
into the ridge and pull the trough east over Alaska and the Gulf
of Alaska by Sat, then persist there into Mon before retrograding
slightly next week. This means that Northern Alaska will cool to near
normal by Sat, then remain near normal through Mon, with the SE
Interior warming to above normal Tue through the end of next week.

Models...
The 27/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis on
synoptic scale features in both location and strength. The model
suite remains fairly consistent in amplifying a the trough ridge
pattern centered over Alsaka over the weekend and into next week.

Central and Eastern Interior... Mostly cloudy conditions will
continue with no large weather system expected to impact the
interior into the middle of next week. A weak front will push
north and west into the Eastern and Central Interior on Sunday and
Monday and will bring a chance of light snow or flurries to the
area mainly south of the Yukon River and to the East of Tanana.
The Tanana Valley Jet is active this afternoon and will continue
to bring gusty east winds in the 15 to 30 mph range to areas near
Big Delta west to near Nenana through Saturday night. Southerly
winds ahead of a low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska continues to
cause moderate south winds through Alaska Range Passes. Expect the
winds to continue through and near the Alaska Range Passes into
Saturday before diminishing some Saturday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong low in the southern Bering Sea will become very strong
and move into the Gulf of Alaska on Sat and move to the Northern
Gulf of Alaska Coast on Sun. This will cause North winds along
the Capes of the West Coast to increase through Sat and persist
into Sun. Generally dry conditions are expected for the Western
Interior and only a stray snow shower pushing inland along the
coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range... A stalled and weakening front
over the North Slope will produce low stratus ceilings and
flurries along the coast through Saturday. Gusty northeasterly
winds will develop through the Brooks Range Passes, especially the
Western Brooks Range as a deep low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska combined with strong ridging over northern Siberia stacks
a strong gradient along the north side of the Brooks Range through
the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7... A low pushing into the northern
Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday of next week will spin a front north and
west into the Interior and will produce snowfall generally light
south of the Brooks Range. Gusty winds are expected along and near
the northern Foothills of the Alaska Range Monday and Tuesday.
Moderate strong northerly winds will continue along the West Coast
and through the Bering Strait through the middle of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

CCC NOV 20