Gale Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
450 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures and cold wind chills continue through the
weekend for the Interior and North Slope and a warming trend
begins over the West Coast and Western Interior Sunday and begins
early next week over the Central and Eastern Interior as well as
the North Slope. A weather front over the Central Interior
continues to bring light snow over the Central Interior this
morning. Wind chill advisories remain across the eastern north
slope with wind chills to 55 below. Gusty winds south of the
Denali Park Entrance combined with cold temperatures continue to
produce wind chills to 50 below. A strong front ahead of a very
deep low moving into the Southern Bering will bring snow and
blowing snow over much of the YK Delta, and lower Yukon Valley and
Strong winds and blowing snow to St. Lawrence Island Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft 500 mb...A high amplitude longwave trough extends from the
high Arctic well into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska and along the
West Coast of North America. A vertically stacked low near
Yakutat currently anchors the longwave in place. High pressure to
the west continues to amplify and force the trough eastward. A
deep mid level low will push north and east over the western
Aleutians Sunday, supporting the progression of strong shortwaves
into the southeastern Bering Sea and West Coast Sunday and Monday.

The deep longwave trough weakens and pushes east into Canada as
the strong longwave ridge builds over the Western Interior today
and over the Central Interior Sunday and over the ALCAN border on
Monday and Tuesday. A deep trough remains over the Central and
Eastern Bering Sea through Tuesday.

Surface...A low pressure trough continues over the Eastern Brooks
Range while a weak ridge of high pressure remains over the
Western Interior. A low pressure trough extending north through
the Bering Strait from a 1002 mb low over the Central Bering Sea
move north and east moving through the Bering Strait and into the
Southern Chukchi Sea late tonight and Sunday. A 944 mb low just
south of the Western Aleutian Island will slowly weaken as a the
low wobbles east on Sunday. A strong front wrapping around the low
will move onto the West Coast in the Lower YK Delta and over St
Lawrence Island on Sunday bringing snow and blowing snow with
near blizzard conditions possible. Heavy snow will push north and
east Sunday and Monday into the Western and Central Interior. 1
to 3 inches of snow is expected along the West Coast with gusty
winds reducing visibility at times. 5 to 8 inches of snow is
expected late Sunday into Monday over the Western Interior south
of Galena where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.
Lighter snows in the 2 to 4 inch range are expected in the Central
Interior Sunday night and Monday with the heaviest snows falling
north and west of Fairbanks as chinook winds limit snowfall
accumulations over the southern portions of the Central and
Eastern Interior Sunday night and Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong Northeast winds continue
at St. Lawrence Island along with some snow. This current feature
weakened rapidly as it crossed the sea ice line, but bring an
additional 1 to 3 inches of snow, and blowing snow with reduced
visibility to St Lawrence Island through this evening. A winter
weather advisory remain in effect for zone 213. Snow, blowing snow
and low visibilities will increase late Sunday in the Yukon
Delta, the West Coast and St Lawrence Island and will continue
through Monday. 5 to 8 inches of snow are expected in the Western
Interior to the south of Galena where Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued. Generally 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected
along with gusty winds and reduced visibilities along the West
Coast. Wind gusts to 55 mph are expected to develop on St Lawrence
Island on Sunday and combined with falling snow will likely
produce very low visibilities in blowing snow.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A low pressure trough continues over
the Eastern Brooks Range while a weak ridge of high pressure
remains over the Western Interior. A low pressure trough extending
north through the Bering Strait from a 1002 mb low over the
Central Bering Sea move north and east will move through the
Bering Strait and into the Southern Chukchi Sea late tonight and
Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low temperatures continue to
produce low wind chill values prompting a Winter Weather Advisory
for the Beaufort Coast east of Prudhoe Bay for wind chills of 50
to 55 below and blowing snow.

Interior...Heavy snow will push north and east Sunday and Monday
into the Western and Central Interior. 5 to 8 inches of snow is
expected late Sunday into Monday over the Western Interior south
of Galena where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.
Lighter snows in the 2 to 4 inch range are expected in the Central
Interior Sunday night and Monday with the heaviest snows falling
north and west of Fairbanks as chinook winds limit snowfall
accumulations over the southern portions of the Central and
Eastern Interior Sunday night and Monday to 1 to 2 inches from
Fairbanks north and west. Minimal snowfall is expected south and
east of Fairbanks.

Models...The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and verified well against the 06z surface
analysis. Model spread is minimal in the short range but begins
to display considerable spread by early next week and to larger
degree in the extended ranges as the models continue to struggle
with upcoming pattern change.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

CCC FEB 20