Gale Warning 117, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continue to dominate the weather across much of
northern Alaska through early next week. Winds will be the main
issue today, with strong winds expected in the Tanana Valley near
Delta Junction as well as the northern western Interior, Western
Brooks Range as well as the West Coast. An area of low pressure
moving north through the Central Bering Sea will bring gusty
winds to the west coast through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The 21/00z model suite generally initialized well with the
placement of the synoptic scale features. The models continue to
initialize the strong area of high pressure over the Yukon
Territory several millibars too low as is typical with this type
of pattern and we have taken this into account with our wind
forecasts. Model spread from run to run remains minimal as well as
from model family to model family. Model spread is reasonable
early next week but begins to increase rapidly after that point
with weather pattern change in the middle of next week.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a strong area of high pressure stretches
southeastward from the High Arctic southeastward over the McKenzie
Delta and southward over the eastern Interior and Yukon, while a
501 dam low is currently located just off the coast of the YK
Delta. The low will push off to the northwest to be located near
St Lawrence Island this evening and a attending trough will push
north over the Alaska Range this evening. By Sunday evening we
expect this trough to stretch from west to across the state from
the Bering Strait through the central Interior and to the Canadian
Border. This trough will persist on Monday. On Monday night, a
ridge will build north along the west coast. This ridge will push
east into the Interior Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough pushes
east over the Bring Sea. On Wednesday, a deep upper level low will
move into the northern Bering Sea with a strong trough extending
south of the low that will track northeast into the West Coast on
Thursday.

At the surface, a 1032 mb high remains in place over the Yukon
Territory, while a 969 mb low is located just east of Nunivak
Island. This low will push northwest today, passing just south of
St Lawrence Island this evening and will reach the Gulf of Anadyr
by Sunday afternoon. The area of high pressure over the Yukon
Territory will remain in place today, and will start to weaken
tonight. A deep low will push from the north Pacific into the
northern Gulf of Alaska on Monday; however, this system will have
little impact on our forecast area.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High pressure over the Yukon combined with the low pressure system
in the Bering Sea continues to create a tight pressure gradient
on the north side of the Alaska Range. This tight pressure
gradient continues to produce strong Tanana Valley Jet winds near
Delta Junction. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through late
this afternoon for the area around Delta Junction. Easterly winds
with gusts to 55 mph are expected. We will also see gusty cold
air drainage winds near Eagle. Strong southerly gap winds continue
along the Parks Highway near Denali National Park where a Wind
Advisory remain in effect through late this afternoon. Wind gusts
up to 60 mph are expected through late this afternoon along the
Parks Highway. Elsewhere in the Interior, strong and gusty
easterly winds have developed in the Upper Koyukuk Valley near
Indian Mountain as well as the Upper Kobuk Valley near Shungnak.
Strong and gusty winds are expected to develop later this morning
in the Noatak and Lower Kobuk Valleys as the low in the Bering Sea
moves north and increases the gradient in these areas. Mostly
clear skies are noted over most of the Interior as a strong ridge
of high pressure remains in place over the Central and Eastern
Interior as well as the Yukon. With the high pressure ridge in
place, we continue to see strong temperature inversions across
the Interior. We expect this to continue tonight, with lows in the
20s to 30s below in many valley locations tonight. In the
Fairbanks area we are again expecting lows in the teens to around
20 below at valley level with above zero lows in the hills. We
expect cloud cover will increase tonight as the upper level trough
moves north over the area. As the clouds move in we will see
temperatures warm a little bit, however no precipitation is
expected in the short term.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...
The weather will remain pretty quiet the next couple days with
mainly high clouds or clear skies expected for most locations,
however areas of fog along the coastal areas near still open
water will produce areas of low stratus, fog and flurries. Winds
along the coast are expected to remain light generally from the
east at 5 to 15 mph today. Winds will pick up a bit along the
eastern Arctic Coast today and continue tonight. The pressure
gradient across the Brooks Range will bring gusty southerly gap
winds through Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front associated with an area of low pressure that is currently
just west of Nunivak Island will continue to bring clouds, snow,
rain and gusty winds to the Yukon Delta through his morning with
conditions improving this afternoon. Any snow accumulation in this
area is expected to be minimal, although the visibly may be
reduced at times due to a combination of snow showers and gusty
winds. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies are expected today, although
the winds could be gusty at times, especially along the coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A front may bring rises
in water levels on Tuesday and Wednesday to south and west facing
coastlines along the West Coast south of the Bering Strait.

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...
A front associated with a strong low over eastern Russia will
push across the Bering Sea late Monday and Tuesday. This front
will reach the west coast of Alaska late Tuesday. This front will
bring gusty southeasterly winds to the west coast along with snow
and blowing snow (the snow may mix with rain at times along in the
Yukon Delta). A strong ridge over the Interior will keep this
front from pushing that far inland. A strong low will move north
along the west coast Wednesday into Thursday of next week; however
models disagree on the timing and the track of this low. This
system will bring another round of strong winds to the west coast.
A front associated with this low will move north over the
Interior on Thanksgiving. As this front moves to the north it will
bring chances for snow for the Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 20

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