Gale Warning 116, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1234 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure remain in place over most of the state
with low pressure over the marine areas. Another currently moving
onto the West Coast is weakening fast as it pushes east into the
strong high pressure over the Interior, however it is still bringing
another round of wintery weather to St Lawrence Island, and
mainly snow to the coastal areas from the Bering Strait south.
High pressure will continue to keep the precipitation with this
front from getting inland as it weakens and dissipates. The
Arctic will see some clearing with more clouds on the way, but not
expecting any precipitation through Thursday. Mostly clear and
cold over the Interior with light winds, however a strong Tanana
Valley jet continues from Delta Junction West to near Nenana and
drainage winds moving down the Yukon river near Eagle are
producing windchill values near 30 below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The 19/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the short range and is reasonable in the
mid range, however there are some differences that will impact
sensible weather in the Southeast Interior Sunday and Monday on
the track and strength of a front that will wrap around a
weakening low pressure system forecasted to track into the
Northern Gulf of Alaska Sunday Morning and there remains
considerable differences on the track and strength of a deep low
forecasted to move into the Northern Gulf of Alaska Monday
Afternoon and Tuesday. At this time model guidance continues to
indicate a weak front pushing into the Southeastern Interior and
Eastern Alaska Range Sunday and Monday that will bring a round of
light snow and warmer temperatures.

On the surface, a 1030 mb high pressures center over the Yukon
combined with a 960 mb low over the Western Bering Sea is
producing a strong pressure gradient that continues to produce
strong and gusty winds with a Tanana Valley Jet from near Delta
Junction west to near Nenana as well as gusty off shore winds in
Norton Sound as well as Kotzebue Sound and the Lower YK Delta. A
cold drainage wind is blowing down the Yukon River Valley in Eagle
and is currently producing wind chill values near 30 below. Winds
in these locations are expected to continue through Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Will remain pretty quiet the next
couple days with mainly high clouds or clear skies. Winds
generally east at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will be cooling into
the teens and single digits by the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...Another front is currently
moving onto the coastal areas south of the Bering Strait with
mainly snow on the coast. Mixed precipitation continues along the
the coastal Yukon Delta locations. Snowfall totals will generally
be less than 2 inches. Winds northeast to east for most locations
at 5 to 15 mph with some gusty winds to 30 mph possible near the
Bering Strait and eastern portions of Norton Sound. Another low
will move rapidly north into the Eastern Bering Sea Friday and
will bring some strong winds to St Lawrence Island and another
round of snow and rain to the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence
Island.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear with the exception of
the Upper Yukon Flats where low stratus has set in and will
probably not be scoured out for a few days. The stratus may erode
on the edges during the day but expect it to thicken at night
under the strong inversion. Strong inversion in the Fairbanks bowl
will also persist. Tanana Valley Jet has kicked in and winds
picked up at Delta Junction to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around
40 mph. The gusty winds have pushed downriver to Nenana with winds
gusting to around 30 mph. As the winds continue temperatures will
remain much warmer than the areas with no wind. Temperatures for
most of the area will be pretty steady with lows in the teens
below and highs in the single digits above and below. Cold
drainage winds pushing down the Yukon River Valley near Eagle
continue to produce windchill values to near 30 below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models continue to struggle
with a pattern transition from strong surface and upper air
ridging over Mainland Alaska to upper level troughing with
increased clouds and increased chances of snow.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
&&

CCC NOV 20