Gale Warning 114, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
113 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will be building over Interior Alaska,
while low pressure will remain over the coastal areas.
Temperatures will cool through Monday morning, then start slowly
warming and remain mild through next weekend. Precipitation will
be mainly in the Arctic and the Lower Yukon Delta, with a few
lingering flurries in the Interior into Monday morning before
skies clear. A strong low moving into the Central Bering Sea will
bring strong winds and snow to the Northwest Arctic Coast Sunday
night and Monday with strong winds near the Bering Strait Monday
into Tuesday. A Blizzard Watch is in effect for the Northwest
Arctic Coast.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 14/12Z solutions initialized well with major features
within a millibar at the surface and a couple decameters aloft.
Solutions are similar well into the extended periods. Not much
going on precipitation wise so will use a blend, but lean a bit
away from the GFS as precipitation amounts are the outlier from
the other solutions. General blend for the remainder of the
elements.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Weak ridging is holding over the southeast
Interior with weak troughing over the Western Interior and the
Central Interior west of Fairbanks. As the ridging expands over
the Interior with a 524 dam high over Fairbanks, and the troughing
will is pushed south over the Alaska Range and lingers over the
upper Tanana Valley through Monday morning as a 518 dam low hangs
on over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. A 489 dam low 200 nm north of
Banks Island will slide east and merge with a 484 dam low to the
east. A 488 dam low high in the Arctic will move over the Northern
Beaufort Sea Sunday evening them move southeast. The high over
Fairbanks will merge into the building ridge over West Coast
Sunday morning. The ridging will slide over 170E Sunday evening
with 540 dam heights being pushed north to Kotzebue Sound. A 524
dam low will move over the Southwest Bering Sea near the Dateline
Monday morning. As a closed 549 dam high develops and moves over
the Lower Yukon Delta Monday afternoon the low will weaken to a
trough and start to ride up the western flank of the ridge.
Tuesday morning the closed high will be over Ambler at 547 dam
with a trough over the Eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Anadyr. At
850 hpa...Some cooler temperatures dig southwest over the Eastern
Interior by Monday morning, while out west the temperatures will
be on the rise as the -10C isotherm moves to lie from Valdez to
Minchumina to Utqiagvik.

Surface...Weak high pressure hanging on over the south slopes of
the Brooks Range this afternoon. Low pressure associated with a
965 mb low in the Northern Beaufort Sea is pushing south over the
Central and Eastern Arctic Coast. A 990 mb low remains in the
Northern Gulf of Alaska with a 998 mb low in Bristol Bay. High
pressure is building north over the Western Bering Sea and
Siberia. The high pressure to the west will move to the Eastern
Bering Sea and Bering Strait tonight. A 994 mb low will move out
of Chukotka into the Southwest Bering Sea Sunday send a front
across the Chukchi Sea to the Northwest Arctic Coast. A tight
pressure gradient will develop northwest Alaska and the Chukchi
Sea with strong southwest winds from the Bering Strait north, then
east across the Arctic Coast. The low will move north of Utqiagvik
Monday and southeast across MacKenzie Bay Tuesday as it weakens.
As the high pressure moves over the Bering Strait high pressure
will also be building between the ranges with a 1017 mb high over
the Yukon Territory Sunday morning that will merge into the 1030
mb high over Tanana Monday morning. By Tuesday afternoon the high
will be over the Yukon Territory near Eagle at 1028 mb with high
pressure pushing west over the Northwest Interior and the Upper
Kuskokwim Basin.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blizzard conditions east of
Deadhorse will taper off this evening as the low near Banks
Island moves east. Expect some clearing in the Brooks Range as
high pressure pushes north. A fast moving low will push a front to
the Northwest Arctic Coast Sunday with potential Blizzard
conditions developing. A Blizzard Watch has been issued. The low
will move north of Utqiagvik by Monday morning as it spreads snow
east. Winds turning from the southwest will increase to 20 to 40
mph and visibility will be reduced to near zero at times in
blowing snow. Temperatures warming through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Will remain pretty quiet as high
pressure moves over the coast tonight and Sunday. A front moving
into the Arctic will send a front into the Chukchi Sea with some
snow being pushed south to the Seward Peninsula and into the
Northwest Interior Sunday night and Monday, then clearing Tuesday.
Generally north winds on the coast to 20 mph with light winds
inland. Winds in the Chukchi Sea will turn from the south to
southwest as the front moves across the area and increase to 15 to
30 mph north of the Bering Strait Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
slightly warmer through Monday, then steady.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some breaks in the clouds, but
expect some more flurries and overcast Sunday. Skies clearing
early Monday as high pressure builds over the area and clouds
clear from the west eventually clearing in the Upper Tanana Valley
by Monday evening. Winds generally light and variable.
Temperatures will bottom out in the area Monday, then start
warming slowly.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated surf near the
Bering Strait and in the Chukchi Sea as strong low moves near the
Dateline in the Central Bering Seal, then north into Siberia.

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Stacked high pressure moving
over the state with low pressure over the coastal areas.
Precipitation will be mainly over the Arctic Coast and the Lower
Yukon Delta. Temperatures will warm slightly through the week,
then cool starting next weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ201.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.

&&

SDB NOV 20