Flood Watch 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKDT Fri Apr 24 2020

.Synopsis...Ice from the Nordale bridge broke loose yesterday and
moved through Fairbanks after getting plugged up for a while as
it moved through. Flooding around Hunts Creek near Chena Hot
Springs Road continues, but is localized and the jam is moving
downstream. Most other flooding is due to ponding of meltwater at
this time. Overnight temperatures falling below freezing is
helping to slow the melt process so expect the nuisance flooding
to gradually dry up. Mostly clear across the forecast area with
the exception of some stratus expected to move east across the
Arctic tonight, and some clouds and snow showers in the Upper
Tanana Valley that will be tapering off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 24/12Z solutions are in pretty good agreement
through the weekend and into the middle of next week before
diverging. Surface solutions in good agreement through Monday,
then quite a bit of disagreement, especially in the Arctic. Not
much as far as precipitation the next few days and solutions are
similar in handling it. Temperatures will be very important of the
next couple weeks as breakup continues and it looks like most
solutions are leaning toward the cooler overnight lows through the
weekend and most of next week. Will generally not be making any
significant changes to the short term temperatures, but will look
at nudging the extended period temperatures down a bit.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Trough associated with a 504 dam low just
southeast of Banks Island extends southwest over the Fortymile
Country and the Eastern Alaska Range and will swing east of the
state tonight. Ridging from a 548 dam high over Siberia extends
southeast over Chukotka, the Seward Peninsula, and Southcentral
Alaska. Ridging is pushing east over the Arctic Coast and the
Interior. Troughing lies to the south extending from south of the
Gulf of Alaska over the Alaska Peninsula across the Southern
Bering Sea to the southern tip of Kamchatka. By Saturday afternoon
not much change as ridging will continue over most of the state
with troughing to the south. The change will be a 505 dam low
moving from just east of the New Siberian Island to 300 nm
northwest of Point Barrow. The low will continue to dive into the
area Saturday night and by Sunday afternoon it will be over
Oliktok Point at 501 dam with a trough extending southwest over
the Bering Strait. Ridging will be push south with the axis south
of the Alaska Range. The low will move east over MacKenzie Bay
Sunday night as the low that was over the Canadian Archipelago
rotates northwest over the Beaufort Sea, then into the Eastern
Arctic by Monday afternoon. At 850 hpa...Temperatures slightly
cooler for most of the area tonight through Saturday evening, then
slightly warmer through Tuesday.

Surface...Rather benign pattern for most of the area. Weak high
pressure over most of the Interior with low pressure to the south
and north. A 1029 mb high over the Eastern Arctic will move east
this evening with low pressure moving to the Dateline by Saturday
morning, and to 300 nm northwest of Utqiagvik at 998 mb by
Saturday afternoon. The low will move to 100 nm north of Kaktovik
by Sunday afternoon at 995 mb. High pressure will persist east to
west over the south slopes of the Brooks Range and Upper Yukon
Flats, while low pressure associated with a 976 mb low to the
south pushes north over Southcentral and the Southeast Panhandle
through the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some stratus and patchy dense fog
will persist over the northwest Arctic coast. Mostly clear from
Utqiagvik east, but expect that stratus to migrate east as the
high pressure moves out of the area tonight. Winds generally
southeast to south tonight 10 to 20 mph. Winds will be increasing
Saturday night as the low moves closer to the coast bringing
potential for stronger winds and blowing snow to areas east of
Deadhorse. Slightly warmer temperatures with the south flow
through Sunday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mainly clear with north to
northeast winds. Along the north side of the Seward Peninsula,
through the Bering Strait, and on St Lawrence Island expect some
stratus and foggy conditions, especially overnight and into the
early afternoon before it clears. Temperatures slightly cooler
the next couple days

Central and Eastern Interior...Mainly clear with the exception of
the southeast interior this evening. Some snow showers in the
Upper Tanana Valley this evening will be tapering off. Slightly
cooler temperatures. Wind north to northeast 5 to 15 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low pressure system will
bring another round of winter to the Arctic Coast while the
remainder of the forecast area will be under weak high pressure.
Temperatures cooler, especially at night with lows falling into
the teens. Warming later in the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...No concerns at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...Minor flooding continues along the Chena River
downstream of Hunts Creek but is slowly subsiding for the moment.
Continue to watch the Chena around the Nordale Bridge as the ice
is pretty solid in the area and not breaking up yet. Smaller
streams, creeks, and sloughs continue to open up and lake ice is
turning as meltwater from the snowpack is ponding on it. Minor
nuisance flooding due to ponding of meltwater by frozen drainage
ditches, and ponding of meltwater in low lying areas continues.
Ice is still firmly in place on most of the major rivers and
lakes, but extreme caution should around them as conditions can
change rapidly. Cooler temperatures have slowed the melting, but
that will not stop the ice from breaking down. For the latest
river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB APR 20

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