Brisk Wind Advisory 94, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues across the Northland as yet
another low has moved across the region, leaving broad southwest
flow and snow showers. Gusty southwest winds are creating some
areas of blowing and drifting snow, including inland areas
along the highway network. Another low is poised to move onshore
this evening and will move inland through Saturday, bringing more
light accumulating snow to the entire Northland. Waves of energy
moving across the North Slope will continue to support areas of
blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Upper Levels...
Flat troughing exists aloft over the Northland with a fast zonal
flow. One shortwave trough has exited the Northland into the Yukon
with yet another shortwave trough over the Bering Sea poised to
move inland along the West Coast. A secondary plume of Pacific
moisture will phase with the Bering shortwave trough and this
will enhance precipitation as it moves inland along the coast.
Elsewhere, a rather tight gradient exists on the North Slope, and
this is keeping strong and gusty southwest winds in the 35-50 MPH
range along with well above average temperatures. Given the
southwest winds across the Northland, vertical mixing has allowed
pretty much the entire region to remain above average
temperatures.

Model Discussion and Confidence...
The numerical weather models are in very good agreement as yet
another low brings snow to the Northland through Saturday night as
it makes landfall over the West Coast today then shifts eastward.
The models are also in good agreement with a stationary front
setting up over the Interior and West Coast Sunday into Monday.
However, the details are very murky at this time, but there is a
quickly increasing threat for more active weather and accumulating
snowfall. A blend of the models was favored, although forecast
confidence is high through Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Active and windy weather will persist over the Brooks Range and
North Slope as a frontal boundary shifts eastward through
tonight. Snow and blowing snow will be the main hazard through
tonight as winds will eventually reach into the 40-50 MPH range
accompanied by light snow and regions of blowing snow, resulting
in potential blizzard conditions. Temps will also remain well
above average, but they will gradually cool as colder air moves in
from the west. A moderate strength arctic front will move into
the eastern North Slope Saturday night and will likely bring more
snow and blowing snow. Yet another front will move in with more
accumulating snow Sunday night and Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The pressure gradient remains strong enough this afternoon to
support continued strong southwest winds along the coast. However,
this gradient will slacken quite a bit this evening. Yet another
low is moving into the southwest coast this afternoon, and this
will spread more accumulating snow across the region, with the
heaviest snow accumulations across the Yukon Delta and the Norton
Sound region. Snowfall accumulations will also be heavier across
the Nulato Hills and interior highlands. This low will move out of
the region on Saturday evening with yet another front moving
inland on Sunday evening.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Convective snow showers will continue to move west to east this
afternoon and evening. Winds gusting to 35 mph in the Fairbanks
area will gradually die off overnight. Additional snow associated
with another shortwave trough will begin around 7am Saturday in
Fairbanks to 1pm for the far eastern Interior. Expecting an
additional 1 to 3 inches with this before a stronger front moves
across the area Sunday evening. This has the potential to bring
some heavy snow Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Will continue
to monitor and update with amounts as model runs become more
consistent.

Extended Forecast Days 3-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Monday evening, there
will once again be a very active pattern in place as a stationary
front sets up across the Northland. This will bring more
accumulating snow threats to large swaths of the region beginning
as early as Sunday evening. The potential is rather high for heavy
snow accumulations from Monday through Wednesday, depending on
where the frontal band stalls. Some of the long range global
numerical models are depositing some rather high snow total
amounts, some of which would be rather extreme if they were to
verify. The signal is certainly in place for some impressive snow
totals next week, but there is still high uncertainty. The second
half of the week looks to finally dry out and colder northerly
flow moves into the Northland, bringing a break from the warm
temps and stormy pattern.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Gale Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

AHSENMACHER MAR 20