Brisk Wind Advisory 33, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1202 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A very cold airmass will continue over Northern Alaska for the
coming week. Very cold wind chills are occuring over the Eastern
North Slope, through the Brooks Range and Alaska Range passes,
and along much of the West Coast, and over the Steese and Elliott
Highway Summits in the INterior. The cold temperatures and low
wind chill values will persist through mid-week and possibly
through late in the week. Temperatures will range from 30s and 40s
below with a few 50s below in the coldest spots over the Western
Interior and North Slope, to the teens and 20s below in cloudy or
windy areas along the West Coast and in windy areas of the Eastern
Interior and Eastern North Slope. There will be pockets of 50s
below in the Koyukuk Valley and the inland North Slope where
conditions are clear and not windy. Areas of snow will move
north over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope through
Wed, with temps in the teens and and 20s below when it is cloudy,
then dropping into the 30s and 40s below during the brief clearing
periods between clouds and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft at 500 mb, A very deep long wave trough stretches from the
North Pole south over Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. This trough
will persist through Fri then become progressive over the weekend
as a ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska and Mainland Alaska.
This trough aloft has very cold temperatures which are being
manifested at the surface with 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s below. The
very cold airmass will persist through the end of the week, then
begin to moderate over the weekend.

A series of weak short wave troughs are making their way north
over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope in the southerly
flow on the east side of the long wave trough. These short waves
will bring periods of clouds and flurries to the Eastern Interior
and Eastern North Slope through Tuesday, with clearing south of
each short wave. A strong short wave trough currently south of the
Aleutians will move to the northern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday night,
and over the Eastern Interior Wed into Thursday. This will bring
snow and slightly warmer air to the Interior Wednesday and
Thursday.

On the Surface, A 1032 mb high over the Chukchi Sea will weaken
slowly through Wed. A ridge of high pressure stretching from this
high east over the North Slope of Alaska will persist through
Tuesday then move north of the Arctic Coast on Wed. A low pressure
trough stretching from north of Prudhoe Bay to Atqasuk will move
to Barter Island northeast by Tuesday afternoon, and then
dissipate.

North Slope and Brooks Range, A patchwork of mostly clear skies
and areas of stratus along with patchy fog and flurries are
accompanying a weak trough as it moves east out of the Eastern
North Slope today. West winds 15-20 kt along the Eastern Arctic
Coast are occuring east of this trough, with the winds decreasing
west of the trough. This is causing Wind chills to 50 to 70 below
in zones 203 and 204. North winds 15-30 mph blowing out of this
high through Brooks Range Passes are causing very cold winds
chills along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. This is also
causing blowing snow through passes.

West Coast and Western Interior, A ridge of high pressure stretching
from the Chukchi Sea south over the Bering Sea will persist through
Wednesday. A low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Alaska
will weaken slowly through Tuesday. The gradient between these
systems is causing north winds of 10-25 kt along the West Coast,
with Capes and Points of the West Coast having the strongest winds
and coldest wind chills. Mostly clear skies and light winds under
the very cold airmass aloft it producing temperatures in the 30s
and 40s below with a few spots in the 50s below. Clouds will begin
to push into the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night which will
warm temperatures into the 20s and 30s below on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior, The gradient between the Bering Sea
High Pressure system and the low moving into the northern Gulf of
Alaska is also causing NE winds along with blowing snow and cold
winds chills over Summits of the Elliott, Steese and Dalton
Highways south of the Yukon River. In addition, the strong
gradient is causing north winds gusting to 30 mph and cold wind
chills and blowing snow through Alaska Range Passes. The cold
temperatures, gusty winds and low wind chill values through the
Alaska Range Passes and over the highway summits will continue
through Tuesday. A very strong low developing in the southern Gulf
of Alaska on Tuesday will move to the Northern Gulf of Alaska on
Wed with an occluded front moving to the Kenai Pen to Burwash
Landing by 3pm Wed. This will spread snow to the SE Interior Wed
and Wed night and over much of the Interior on Thu. This will also
enhance north winds between the Brooks Range and Alaska Range on
Wed and keep the cold wind chills going.

Models initialized well aloft at 12Z and initialized well at 18z.
Models show similar solutions through Tuesday evening, then start
to see differences on timing and strength of strong low moving
north over the Gulf of Alaska Tue night and Wed.

850 mb temperatures range from -22C along the West Coast to -35C
over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope. 850 MB temps
will remain cold into Tue, then begin to slowly increase Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with a more sharp increase on Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ217-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ204-AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

CCC JAN 20