Brisk Wind Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high over the SE Interior, combined with a strong low
near Cape lisburne that is moving northeast to the Northern
Beaufort Sea on Tue, is creating blizzard conditions over NW
Alaska now that will spread east across the North Slope as near
blizzard conditions tonight through Tue night. This low has caused
clouds and light snow to spread east across the Interior and
brought temps into the 10 above to 10 below range. The Alcan
Border area remains in the 20s and 30s below, but clouds pushing
into that areas tonight should cause a significant warm up there
as well.

Clearing skies moving into the West Coast on Tue, and to the
Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope on Wed and Thu, will
cause skies to clear and temperatures to fall again. Expect temps
to fall back into the 20s to 40s below across the Eastern
Interior by Thu, and remain that cold into the weekend.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a ridge over the North Pacific
stretching north over the Bering Sea and Alaska Mainland. After
several strong short waves troughs move east through the top of
this ridge and across Alaska over the next several days, then the
ridge will amplify over the Bering Sea and West Coast of Alaska
on Tue, and over Mainland Alaska on Wed, then persisting through
late in the week. This means that most of northern Alaska will
have clouds and light snow the next several days as the short
waves move east across the area, then see clearing and dramatic
surface cooling under the ridge over Western Alaska on Tue, and
over Eastern Alaska on Wed and Thu, with eastern Alaska remaining
clear and very cold through Fri and possibly into the weekend.

A strong short wave trough from Northern Chukchi Sea to Utqiagvik
to Denali will move to Barter Island to Delta Junction by 3am Tue,
then dissipating along the Alcan Border Tue pm. This is causing
low to mid level clouds and light snow to move east just ahead of
the trough with snow tapering off to flurries just west of the
trough.

A second short wave trough that lies along the West Coast will
move to Deadhorse to Mcgrath by 3am Tue, to Barter Island to Delta
Junction by 3pm Tue, then dissipating along the Alcan Border Tue
night. Expect more low to midlevel clouds and light snow withe
this feature.

A third short wave trough over NE Russia will move to Wrangel
Island to Galena by 3am Tue, to Cape Lisburne to McGrath by 3pm
Tue, to Bettles to Denali by 3am Wed, to Old Crow to Delta
Junction by 3pm Wed, then east of the Alcan Border Wed night. Will
see more light snow and low to mid level clouds east of this
trough. Should see dramatic clearing west of this trough as the
ridge aloft builds in.

Surface...
A 1045 mb low over the extreme southeast Interior will persist
through Tue, then possibly strengthen Thu, and persist into the
weekend. This is causing weak winds blowing down the Yukon River
near Eagle and down the Tanana Valley near Delta that will weaken
tonight.

A 1000 MB low just north of Cape Lisburne will move to 500 NM
north of Utqiagvik as a 1002 mb low by 3am Tue, to 700 NM north of
Demarcation Point as a 1009 mb low by 3pm Tue, then continue
moving east. An occluded front stretching from the low to
Deadhorse to Denali Park will move to Barter Island to Delta
Junction by 3am Tue, to Inuvik to Tok by 3pm Tue. Light snow is
occuring along and west of the the occluded front with about 1
inch of snow across the Interior tonight. Snow and strong winds
in the SE quadrant of this low are now causing blizzard conditions
over NW Alaska North of Kotzebue along with another several
inches of snow tonight. The snow and strong winds will taper off
late tonight over NW Alaska, but light snow and blowing snow will
spread to the Western Arctic Coast tonight, and then spread east
across the eastern Arctic Coast on Tue.

An arctic cold front that lies front the low to the Yukon Delta
will move to Utqiagvik to Bettles to the YK Delta by 3am Tue, to
Demarcation Point to Tanana to the YK Delta by 3pm Tue, to Inuvik
to Old Crow to Denali by 3am Wed, and to Eagle to Tok then south
by 3pm Wed. There are clouds, light snow, and SW winds 20g30 mph
along this front along the West Coast. The winds will continue
with with this front as it moves east across the North Slope, but
just west winds of 10 mph will move across the INterior with the
front. Expect another inch of snow with this front tonight through
Tue night. High pressure will build over the West Coast on Tue
behind this front, causing skies to clear and temps to drop, with
the high building over the Interior on Wed and Thu.
Expect east winds of 20-30 mph to develop Wed and continue into
Thu along easterly drainage areas of the West Coast such as
Kotzebue and Unalakleet.

A strong weather front near Kamchatka will move into the Western
Bering Sea on Tue, to the Central Bering Sea on Wed, and to the
northern and eastern Bering Sea on Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models all initialize 10-20 meters too low at h500 as
compared to the Fairbanks and Yakutat ROABs, and thus all are
slightly weak on their initialization of the ridge over Eastern
Alaska. Otherwise, models initialize well aloft and show similar
solutions through 3pm Thu, with fair agreement into next weekend.
With the stronger than model indicated ridge over eastern Alaska,
expect that the short wave trough and associated clouds and light
snow will be several hours slower in its eastward movement across
the Eastern Interior today and tonight than models indicate.

850 MB temps range from -10C over the West Coast and Arctic
Coast, to -20C over the extreme SE Interior. Temperatures will
slowly cool tonight and Tue so that most over the Interior and
North Slope is -20C or colder by Tue, while the West Coast
remains warm, and then Western Half of the State warms on Wed and
Thu, while the area east of the the Alaska Pipeline remains cold
Wed and Thu, and likely into the weekend.

Model Precip fields are similar. PLan to use a blend of the
NAM/GFS/ECMF through Thu, but with the caveats that precip and
clouds will move east today and tonight several hours slower than
models indicate, and that there will remain light snow further
west than models indicate today through Wed, with precip not
shutting off until after the short wave trough passes and the
trailing strong ridge builds over Alaska.

At the surface at 18Z, all models verify 5 mb too weak on the high
pressure over Northway, and 2-3 mb too weak on the low just west
of Cape Lisburne. Expect that the models will remain 4-5mb too
weak on the high near Northway through Tue, and that the Cape
Lisburne low will remain a few mb deeper than models indicate as
it moves NE tonight and Tue. For these reasons, expect winds near
Eagle to be 5 kt stronger than models indicate through Tue, and
for winds through the Brooks range Passes and along he Arctic
Coast to be a few kt stronger than models indicate through Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Expect southeast winds 20-30kt along the West Coast Wed and Thu.
Expect blowing snow with this.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ224.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-
AKZ217.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 20