Brisk Wind Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 PM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry conditions south of the Brooks Range today will cool
and moisten significantly on Tue as a weather front moves from the
Gulf of Alaska north over the Interior and West Coast. This will
bring likely showers to the Southwest Interior and West Coast late
tonight or Tue with just a chance of slight chance of showers
over the Northern and Eastern Interior. For Wed and Thu
conditions will have near normal temperatures humidity with little
if any rain.

Strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast is causing east
winds 10-20 kt along the Arctic Coast today, that will increase
to 25-35 kt tonight through Thu as the front moves north and
tightens the gradient.

Heavy snow melt will decrease after today as temperatures fall.
This will cause rivers and streams across the Interior to rise
through Tue, then remain high through the week.

Aloft...
A long wave ridge over Western Canada and Northern Alaska will
persist through Wed and then slowly retrograde. A long wave trough
over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska will persist through Thu
then also retrograde. This will keep the North Slope and NE
Interior mainly dry and allow periods of showers over Western
Alaska.

A strong short wave in the Gulf of Alaska will move NW over the
Southern Interior tonight. Expect showers likely with this
feature southwest of Denali to the Bering Strait tonight and Tue,
with a chance or slight chance of showers over the Eastern and
Northern Interior Late tonight or Tue.

A weak short wave trough over the Southern Beaufort Sea will move
SE tonight.

A third short wave trough in the Canadian Archipelago will move
to the Beaufort Sea Coast Tue, then move south along the Alcan
Border on Wed. This will bring colder air south over the Eastern
Interior.

Surface...
A thermal low pressure trough that lies just north of the Alaska
range will persist this evening. This is causing near record heat
over the Interior and RH of 15-25% along with winds of 15g25 mph
blowing into the trough now that will continue into this evening.

A 1008 MB low near Sparrevohn will move to Eastern Norton Sound as
a 1004 mb low by 4am Tue, to 100 NM west of Emmonak as a 1004 mb
low by 4pm Tue, then 100 NM west of St Matthew Island as a 1008 mb
low by 4pm Wed. An occluded front stretching SE from this low will
move to Golovin to Tanana to Northway and merge with thermal
trough by 4am Tue, then move to the Bering Strait to Fairbanks to
Northway by 4pm Tue, then move to the Chukotsk Peninsula of Russia
to Kotzebue to Denali by 4am Wed, then slowly weaken. Widespread
showers will accompany the low center with showers become less
common along further north and east along the front. Showers will
decrease Tue night and Wed as the front weakens. Expect Winds to
turn south 15 mph just south of the front.

A strong high north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Thu. An Arctic front stretching that lies along the Brooks
Range will persist tonight, move to Old Crow to Point Hope by 4pm
Tue, to Chicken to Point Hope by 4pm Wed, then persist into Thu.
NE winds and stratus/fog/flurries will cover the North Slope
behind this front for the next several days. This is causing east
winds 10-20 kt along the Arctic Coast today, that will increase
to 25-35 kt tonight as the gradient tighten ands then persist
into Thu.

This front will bring cooler temps and NE winds 15g25 mph to the
Northern Interior on Wed and Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12z, all models initialize 10-20 meters too low on 500 MB
heights under the ridge ridge aloft over Northern Alaska and NW
Canada. The NAM, ECMF and Canadian models keep the ridge a bit
stronger than the GFS through 4am Wed. After that time, the ECMF
keeps the ridge a bit stronger than other models. Since the ridge
is stronger than any models initialize, favor a blend of the
stronger ridge shown by the NAM and ECMF through 4am Wed, but
with slightly lower POPs and warmer temps that a stronger ridge
would show. After 4AM Wed, prefer the NAM because it keeps the
ridge a bit stronger than other models.

850 MB temperatures cool 4-8C from across the Interior from today
through Tue, then remain cooler through Thu.

GFS moves precip north across the Interior and West Coast faster
than other models. Favor the NAM precip which is slower and with
lower pops than the GFS due to it maintaining the stronger 500 MB
ridge.

At the surface models verify well at 15Z and show similar
solutions through Thu.

Bottom line is that we will use the NAM for precip amounts, pops
temps and winds through Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A thermal low pressure trough that lies just north of the Alaska
Range will persist this evening. This is causing near record heat
over the Interior with temps in the 70s to near 80, RH of 15-25%
along with winds of 15g25 mph blowing into the trough now that
will continue into this evening. This is causing Red Flag
conditions now through 10 pm this evening over zones 221 222 223
southern 224 and 226 near Ft Greely. Conditions will cool and
moisten significantly on Tue as a weather front moves from the
Gulf of Alaska north over the Interior and West Coast.
For Wed and Thu conditions will have near normal temperatures
humidity with little if any rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Near record high temperatures across the Interior
are causing rapid snow melt. This is causing high water on most
streams and rivers across the Interior. Water levels are expected
to rise through Tuesday, and then remain high or fall slowly
through the week. Cooler temperatures starting Tuesday should slow
down the snow melt later this week.

Minor flooding is occuring on the Chena River upstream of Nordale
Road, and on the Salcha River. Flooding is possible on the
Chatanika and Little Chena Rivers.

The Chena River downstream of the Moose Creek Dam will rise to
near bankfull today, and remain high for most of the week. This
is causing flooding of low lying areas along the Chena River such
as Freeman Road in the Steamboat Landing Subdivision, and bike
paths under bridges in Fairbanks. These areas will keep high water
through the week.

The Moose Creek Dam is now being operated and is closed to boat
traffic. Boating on the Chena River will be hazardous this week
due low clearance under bridges and logs in the river.

Flooding is occuring on the Dietrich River north of Coldfoot
and has damaged the Dalton Highway at Milepost 206 according to
the Alaska DOT. The DOT also reports flooding and washouts on the
Taylor Highway between mileposts 90 and 93.

Flooding is possible along the Goodpaster and Fortymile Rivers
through Tuesday. Flooding is possible on other rivers and streams
across the Interior over the next several days as well.

On the Koyukuk River, Ice runs will continue and will be heavy at
times. Waters are expected to rise with continued snow melt.

On the Kobuk River, ice remains in place in many locations. Ice
is expected to break up over the next week along the Kobuk River
along with rising water levels. People along the Kobuk River
should be alert for possible ice jams later this week.

The Yukon River water levels continue to rise with the snow melt.
Ice runs will continue as shore ice is mobilized and side
channels clear. Villages down river from Russian Mission may still
have channel ice in place. Mountain Village to Emmonak may have
areas with moving ice and rising water levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Flood Watch for AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224 for Chatanika, Little Chena,
Goodpast and Fortymile Rivers.

Flood Advisory for the Chatanika River and the Chena river
upstream of the Moose Creek Dam.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAY 20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1102 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

AKZ222-112115-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1102 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

...High Water On Rivers and Streams In The Fairbanks Area Through
The Week...

Near record high temperatures are causing rapid snow melt in the
Fairbanks area. This is causing high water on rivers and streams
in the Fairbanks area. Water levels are expected to rise through
Tuesday, and then remain steady or fall slowly through the week.
Cooler temperatures starting Tuesday should slow down the snow
melt later this week.

Minor flooding is occuring on the Chena River upstream of Nordale
Road, and on the Salcha River. Flooding is possible on the
Chatanika and Little Chena Rivers.

The Chena River downstream of the Moose Creek Dam will rise to
near bankfull today, and remain high for most of the week. This
is causing flooding of low lying areas along the Chena River such
as Freeman Road in the Steamboat Landing Subdivision, and bike
paths under bridges in Fairbanks. These areas will keep high water
through the week.

The Moose Creek Dam is now being operated and is closed to boat
traffic. Boating on the Chena River will be hazardous this week
due low clearance under bridges and logs in the river.

AKZ218>221-223>226-112115-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely,
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok,
Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, Chicken, Boundary,
Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, Kantishna,
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp,
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1102 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

...High Water On Rivers and Streams Across Interior Alaska
   Expected Through The Week...

Near record high temperatures across the Interior are causing
rapid snow melt. This is causing high water on most streams and
rivers across the Interior. Water levels are expected to rise
through Tuesday, and then remain high or fall slowly through the
week. Cooler temperatures starting Tuesday should slow down the snow
melt later this week.

Flooding is occuring on the Dietrich River north of Coldfoot
and has damaged the Dalton Highway at Milepost 206 according to
the Alaska DOT. The DOT also reports flooding and washouts on the
Taylor Highway between mileposts 90 and 93.

Flooding is possible along the Goodpaster and Fortymile Rivers
through Tuesday. Flooding is possible on other rivers and streams
across the Interior over the next several days as well.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1112 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

AKZ222-130130-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1112 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

...High Water On Rivers and Streams In The Fairbanks Area Through
The Week...

Near record high temperatures are causing rapid snow melt in the
Fairbanks area. This is causing high water on rivers and streams
in the Fairbanks area. Water levels are expected to rise through
Tuesday, and then remain steady or fall slowly through the week.
Cooler temperatures starting Tuesday should slow down the snow
melt later this week.

Minor flooding is occuring on the Chena River upstream of Nordale
Road, and on the Salcha River. Flooding is possible on the
Chatanika and Little Chena Rivers.

The Chena River downstream of the Moose Creek Dam will rise to
near bankfull today, and remain high for most of the week. This
is causing flooding of low lying areas along the Chena River such
as Freeman Road in the Steamboat Landing Subdivision, and bike
paths under bridges in Fairbanks. These areas will keep high water
through the week.

The Moose Creek Dam is now being operated and is closed to boat
traffic. Boating on the Chena River will be hazardous this week
due low clearance under bridges and logs in the river.

AKZ218>221-223>226-130130-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely,
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok,
Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, Chicken, Boundary,
Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, Kantishna,
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp,
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1112 AM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

...High Water On Rivers and Streams Across Interior Alaska
   Expected Through The Week...

Near record high temperatures across the Interior are causing
rapid snow melt. This is causing high water on most streams and
rivers across the Interior. Water levels are expected to rise
through Tuesday, and then remain high or fall slowly through the
week. Cooler temperatures starting Tuesday should slow down the snow
melt later this week.

Flooding is occuring on the Dietrich River north of Coldfoot
and has damaged the Dalton Highway at Milepost 206 according to
the Alaska DOT. The DOT also reports flooding and washouts on the
Taylor Highway between mileposts 90 and 93.

Flooding is possible along the Goodpaster and Fortymile Rivers
through Tuesday. Flooding is possible on other rivers and streams
across the Interior over the next several days as well.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 PM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

AKZ208-210-216-217-132115-
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Buckland, Deering, Candle,
Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs,
Taylor, Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler,
Shungnak, and Kobuk
107 PM AKDT Mon May 11 2020

...Rising Water Levels in Rivers and Streams across Western and
Northwestern Interior Through the Upcoming Week...

...Rising Water on Rivers Across the Western and Northwestern
Interior Through the Week...

Warm temperatures across the Western and Northwestern Interior
are causing rapid snow melt. This will cause water levels to rise
significantly in rivers across the Western And Northwestern
Interior this week, and cause break up to proceed rapidly in
rivers that remain ice covered.

On the Koyukuk River, Ice runs will continue and will be heavy at
times. Waters are expected to rise with continued snow melt.

On the Kobuk River, ice remains in place in many locations. Ice
is expected to break up over the next week along the Kobuk River
along with rising water levels. People along the Kobuk River
should be alert for possible ice jams later this week.

The Yukon River water levels continue to rise with the snow melt.
Ice runs will continue as shore ice is mobilized and side
channels clear. Villages down river from Russian Mission may still
have channel ice in place. Mountain Village to Emmonak may have
areas with moving ice and rising water levels.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc