Brisk Wind Advisory 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 AM AKDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure continues to dominate the Central and Eastern
Interior while a weak weather system moves north along the west
coast of Alaska on today. A front associated with the weak low
will push east into the western Interior tonight night bringing
generally 2 to 4 inches of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 01/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified will with the 06z surface analysis with the
exception of the high pressure system over the Yukon initializing
a couple mb too low. Model spread remains low through Friday,
however considerable model spread continues to plaque the
extended model runs with significant differences on the track and
strength of a low pressure system pushing into the Central Bering
Sea on Friday and near the Bering Strait on Saturday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, A 548 dam ridge extends south and west over
mainland Alaska from 554 dam high pressure centered over Banks
Island. This ridge will slowly push to the east today and
and by early Thursday will be east of the Canadian Border. A weak
shortwave currently along a Prudhoe Bay to Fairbanks to Anchorage
line will continue to push east moving into Canada this evening
providing only mostly cloudy skies and a brief flurry as the front
passes. A stronger shortwave will push east across the Bering Sea
today, reaching the Yukon Delta this afternoon. This shortwave
will push into the Interior Wednesday night and Thursday and will
bring 2 to 4 inches of snow as it passes through the West Coast
and Western Interior and generally 1 to 2 inches of snow over the
Central Interior on Thursday. A trough moving east across the
Bering Sea will reach the west coast of Alaska Thursday evening,
and will push east across the Interior Thursday night and Friday
bring another round of light snow to the Interior and mixed
precipitation late Friday in the Lower YK Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior: Clouds continue to increase over the
interior ahead of a very weak front pushing east out of the
Western Interior. Mostly cloudy skies with no more than a brief
period of flurries as the front passes is expected as the front
passes today. A front moving through the Interior on Thursday has
the potential to bring a quick shot of snowfall. Previous forecast
remains on track with only minor timing edits made. Generally 1 to
3 inches of snow is expected with the system.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Minimal precipitation is expected
through tonight. A front moving to the east across northern
Alaska will bring chances for snow on Thursday, especially to the
south slopes of the Brooks Range where a couple of inches of
snowfall is possible.

West Coast and Western Interior: Snowfall will move into the
Yukon Delta this afternoon, with snowfall spreading north and
east tonight with generally 2 to 4 inches of snow expected.
Snowfall with this system will taper off in the late morning on
Thursday as the front pushes into the central Interior. Another
shortwave will bring light snowfall to to areas along the coast
Thursday night and Friday.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7: Yet another low pressure system
will reach the west coast Friday evening and will push into the
Interior on Saturday. This system has the potential to bring a
good amount snowfall to the west coast; however, there is still a
lot of uncertainty with this system, especially as it moves
inland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CCC APR 20