Blizzard Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

437 
WWAK41 PAFG 161248
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
448 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

AKZ204-170200-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200317T0200Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
448 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches
  expected. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times is 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...4 AM to 6 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will increase rapidly this morning
  with blizzard conditions developing by mid-morning. Winds
  gusting to 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing
  snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Winds will
  decrease this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. 

$$

AKZ202-161800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T1800Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
448 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. Plan
  on difficult travel conditions. Additonal snow accumulations of
  1 inch expected. Visibility one half mile or less at times 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause areas 
  of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will decrease late this 
  morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. 

$$

AKZ201-161400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T1400Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
448 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT
EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. Plan
  on difficult travel conditions. Additonal snow accumulations of
  1 inch expected. Visibility one half mile or less at times 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Noon today to 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause areas 
  of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will decrease early this 
  morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means that
visibilities will be limited due to strong winds blowing snow
around. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas. 

$$

AKZ203-162000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T2000Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
448 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. Plan
  on difficult travel conditions. Additonal snow accumulations of
  1 to 2 inches expected. Visibility one half mile or less at 
  times expected.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...10 PM today to noon Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ206-162000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T2000Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
448 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. 
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 inches expected. Visibility one half mile or less at 
  times expected.

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...4 PM today to noon Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause areas 
  of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

068 
WWAK41 PAFG 161406
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
606 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020


AKZ202-161515-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T1800Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
606 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and blowing snow are now decreasing and visibility has 
improved.

$$

AKZ201-161515-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T1400Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
606 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and blowing snow are now decreasing and visibility has 
improved.

$$

AKZ204-162215-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200317T0200Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
606 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 
  inches expected. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times 
  is expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will increase rapidly this morning 
  with blizzard conditions developing by mid-morning. Winds 
  gusting to 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing 
  snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Winds will 
  decrease this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. 

$$

AKZ203-162000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T2000Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
606 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. 
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. Additonal snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected. Visibility one half 
  mile or less at times expected.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will this 
  afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ206-162000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T2000Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
606 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. 
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 inches expected. Visibility one half mile or less at 
  times expected.

* WHERE...Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Until noon today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause areas 
  of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

541 
WWAK41 PAFG 161942
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1142 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

AKZ203-206-162045-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-200316T2000Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, Kuparuk, 
Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
1142 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ204-170200-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200317T0200Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1142 AM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 
  inches expected. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times 
  is expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will increase rapidly this morning 
  with blizzard conditions developing by mid-morning. Winds 
  gusting to 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing 
  snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Winds will 
  decrease this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

094 
WWAK41 PAFG 162324
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

AKZ204-170030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200317T0200Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
324 PM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
657 AM AKDT Sun Mar 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights...
Expect another 2-4 inches of snow through 4am Mon in the area
northwest of Coldfoot to Galena to Unalakleet to the Brooks Range
Crest where Winter weather. Will issue winter weather advisory
for areas not covered by existing warnings/advisories in this
area.

Can also expect 1-3 inches tonight through 4pm Mon through over
the North Slope along with significant blowing snow. Expect winds
about 20 kt from Utqiagvik west this evening through early Mon
with visibility 1/2 mile at times. Those conditions will spread
to Deadhorse late tonight through Mon noon. Winds will be stronger
at Kaktovik late Sun night through Mon evening and expect blizzard
conditions Late sun night through Mon eve.

West winds now decreasing over Summits of Steese Highway, but
expect them to increase to g40 mph again tonight and Mon.

The next storm will bring another 2-6 inches along the West Coast
and Western Interior Tue and Tue night along with blowing snow,
with that snow spreading east across the Interior and North Slope
Tue night and Wed with snow amounts decreasing as the storm moves
north and east.

Aloft...
A blocking high over the Gulf of Alaska and Mainland Alaska will
weaken slowly through the week as a series of strong short wave
troughs make their way east across Northern Alaska. This will keep
Northern Alaska much warmer than normal this week with periods of
significant snow.

One short wave in the Western Bering Sea will move along the West
Coast this afternoon, and to Eastern Alaska late tonight. Expect
snow ahead of this trough, with snow diminishing west of the
trough.

A second and stronger short wave moving into the Western Bering
Sea on Mon afternoon, will move along the West Coast on Tue
afternoon, and move to the Alcan Border Wed afternoon. Expect 4-6
inches of snow with this trough.

Surface...

A 995 mb low just over the Canadian Archipelago will move east
this morning. A 1040 MB high over the North Slope of Alaska will
move east over the Beaufort Sea and MacKenzie River by 4pm Sun.
This will cause winds on the North Slope to diminish and turn SE
this afternoon.

A warm front over Norton Sounds east to Eagle will move to the
Bering Strait to Eagle by 4pm Sun, then to Barter Island to Old
Crow by 4am Mon. Over running snow along this front will drop 2-4
inches over the West Coast and Western Interior north of
Unalakleet Galena and Coldfoot through tonight, and drop several
inches over the Eastern North Slope tonight.

A 1008 mb low west of Wrangel Island will move to 200 NM north of
Wrangel Island as a 1008 mb low by 4pm Sun, to 450 NM north of
Barter Island as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Mon, then continue moving
east. An Arctic cold front that lies south from this low will move
to Point Lay to the Bering Strait to St Matthew Island by 4pm Sun,
to Deadhorse to the YK Delta by 4am Mon, then to Inuvik to Old
Crow to POint Hope by 4pm Mon. Expect another 1-2 inches of snow
along this front with snow tapering off west of the front.
Expect winds to turn SW 20 kt over the North Slope with blowing
snow just ahead of the front, and turn W 25g35kt along the front
with vsby 1/2NM in snow and blowing snow. over zones 201 202 and
203 and 206. Expect winds to gust to 50 mph over zone 304 and
cause possible Blizzard conditions there. See WWA for details.

The front will also bring W winds to 35kt over Summits of the
Steese Highway lat tonight through Noon Mon in zone 220.

A third weather front will move to the Central Bering Sea on Mon
afternoon, and along the West Coast of Alaska by Tue afternoon,
into the Western INterior Tue night, and to the Eastern INterior
on Wed. This will bring another round of heavy snow and blowing
snow to the West Coast and Western INterior Tue and Tue night.
There will be more moderate snowfall in the Central and Ern
INterior Tue night and Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
4pm Mon, then see slight differences in strength of short waves
moving east into Alaska.

850 MB temperatures range from 0C along the Alaska Range to -10C
along the West Coast and North Slope. Temperature will cool to -6
to -10 over the Interior through Mon, then see warming all areas
on Tue.

Precipitation fields are similar for the NAM, GFS and ECMF
through Tue. Will use a blend of all models for precip areal
coverage and amounts through Tue. Expect another 2-4 inches of
snow through 4am Mon in the area northwest of Coldfoot to Galena
to Unalakleet to the Brooks Range Crest. Can also expect 1-3
inches tonight through 4pm Mon through over the North Slope along
with blowing snow. The next big snow will be another 2-6 inches
along the West Coast and Western Interior Tue and Tue night.

At the surface at 06Z, the High over the North Slope is 3-4 mb
stronger than models indicate, and the low over the Canadian
Archipelago is 4 mb deep than models indicate. This is now
causing winds 3-5kt stronger along the Arctic Coast than models
indicate, but with the low and high moving rapidly east today,
winds should still drop rapidly this morning as models indicate.
Otherwise models show similar solutions at the surface through
4pm Tue.

Bottom line is we will use a blend of NAM/ GFS, ECMF for Temps,
winds, precip through 4pm Tue, but bump winds up 3-5 kt over zone
204 early this morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 20