Blizzard Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

955 
WWAK42 PAFG 210141
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

AKZ207-213-210245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200221T0900Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Gambell, 
Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, and Diomede
441 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ212-211500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, 
and Shaktoolik
441 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches are expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills north of 
  Unalakleet.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

$$

AKZ210-211500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
441 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility one half 
  mile or less at times. Less than 1 inch of additional snow 
  accumulation expected. Travel will be difficult.

* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula...mainly near
  Deering.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause low 
  visibility in blowing snow. Significant drifting snow will 
  occur. The worst conditions areas expected near Deering from 
  late this morning through late tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means that
visibilities will be limited due to strong winds blowing snow
around. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas.

$$

AKZ214-211500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
441 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yukon Delta.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

419 
WWAK42 PAFG 210924
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1224 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

AKZ212-211500-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, 
and Shaktoolik
1224 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches are expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills north of 
  Unalakleet.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

$$

AKZ209-211500-
/O.EXA.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Including Kotzebue, Selawik, and Noorvik
1224 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility will be one
  half mile or less at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are expected.

* WHERE...Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means that
visibilities will be limited due to strong winds blowing snow
around. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas.

$$

AKZ210-211500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
1224 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility one half 
  mile or less at times. Less than 1 inch of additional snow 
  accumulation expected. Travel will be difficult.

* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause low
  visibility in blowing snow. Significant drifting snow will
  occur. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means that
visibilities will be limited due to strong winds blowing snow
around. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas.

$$

AKZ214-211500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
1224 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yukon Delta.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

411 
WWAK42 PAFG 211350
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
450 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

AKZ212-220000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200222T0000Z/
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, 
and Shaktoolik
450 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow and areas of blowing snow occurring. Visibility 
  will be one half mile or less at times. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winds and blowing snow will
  slowly decrease this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ209-220000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200222T0000Z/
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Including Kotzebue, Selawik, and Noorvik
450 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility will be one
  half mile or less at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Additional snow accumulations of less than one inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winds and blowing snow will
  slowly decrease this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ210-220000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200222T0000Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
450 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility one half 
  mile or less at times. Less than 1 inch of additional snow 
  accumulation expected. Travel will be difficult.

* WHERE...Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 40 mph will cause low
  visibility in blowing snow. Significant drifting snow will
  occur. Winds and blowing snow will slowly decrease this 
  afternoon.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means that
visibilities will be limited due to strong winds blowing snow
around. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas.

$$

AKZ214-220000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-200222T0000Z/
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
450 AM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Visibility will be one
  half mile or less at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Additional snow accumulations of less than one inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yukon Delta.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winds and blowing snow will
  slowly decrease this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
633 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights are:
South winds gusting 50-60 mph through Alaska Range Passes to
continue into this afternoon, then decrease rapidly this evening.
North winds gusting 40-50 mph along the West Coast from Point Hope
to the Bering Strait, including near Deering, are causing reduced
visibility in blowing snow and will continue through midnight
tonight before winds slowly decrease. North winds 25 gusting to 40
mph will develop this morning along the West Coast from Koyuk
south and will cause blowing snow and areas of reduced visibility
today and tonight.

A strong storm in Bristol Bay will move over the Kenai Pen this
afternoon, and over the Eastern Interior on Fri, and over the NE
INterior on Sat. This will spread snow to the Western Interior
today, to the Central Interior and to the Eastern INterior on Fri
and Sat. Expect 2-3 inches of snow will this today through Fri
over the Western Interior and south slopes of the Alaska Range,
and 1-2 inches of snow over the remainder of the Interior tonight
through Sat.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Western
Alaska and the Chukchi and Bering Seas with a ridge over Western
Canada and Eastern Alaska. As a series of short wave troughs move
NE across Northern Alaska they will pull the long wave east over
Mainland Alaska by Fri, with the trough weakening over the weekend
as a ridge build over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska.
These features will result in the current southerly Chinook winds
over the Alaska Range weakening this evening as one short wave
moves NE over the Interior, with flow aloft becoming lighter and
SW on Fri and Sat. This will bring clouds, snow and cooler
temperatures east over the Interior Fri and Sat.

A weak short wave trough over the Brooks Range will move over the
Arctic Coast by 3pm Thu, then continue north and weaken on Thu
night. There are mid level clouds and light snow associated with
this.

A second and much stronger short wave over Bristol Bay will move
to McGrath to Anchorage by 3pm Thu, to Bettles to Yakutat by 3am
Fri, over the NE Interior by 3pm Fri, to Barter Island east by 3am
Sat and then stationary. Light snow will spread NE along this
trough.

A third short wave trough in the Bering Sea will move along the
West Coast of Alaska by Fri PM, and over the Western Interior on
Sat PM, and to the Eastern Interior Sun PM. Light snow will
continue east of this trough, with clouds decreasing west of
through trough which will allow significant drop in surface
temperatures.

Surface...
A 992 mb near Kotzebue will weaken Fri. A weather front stretches
from the Kotzebue low to Cape Halkett to a 981 mb low over the
MacKenzie River Delta, with this second low moving east today.
The front will remain in place through Fri, then move north of the
Arctic Coast of Alaska on Sat. Light snow near the low and along
the front will persist into tonight then taper off Fri as the low
and front weaken.

This low near Kotzebue is causing north winds gusting 40 mph
along the West Coast from Point Hope to the Bering Strait,
including near Deering, and causing reduced visibility in blowing
snow that will continue through tonight before winds slowly
decrease on Fri as the low weakens. Gusts to 50 mph in the Bering
Strait now will weaken on Fri.

West to southwest winds 10-15 kt are occuring over zones 203 and
204 south of this front and will persist into Sat. North winds of
10 kt are occuring from Point Barrow west which will persist
through Fri, then turn SW on Sat.

A strong low in Bristol Bay will move over the Kenai Pen this
afternoon, to near Fairbanks by 3am Fri, to near Ft Yukon by 3pm
Fri, to near Arctic Village by 3am Sat, and then persisting into
Sat. A cold front trailing this low will move to Fairbanks south
by 3am Fri, to Ft Yukon to Delta Junction by 3pm Fri, and then
moving along the Alcan Border by Sat. Moderate chinook winds
across the Alaska Range will decrease this afternoon as the low
moves east. Snow will spread northeast ahead of this low, moving to
the Western Interior today, and to the Central Interior and to
the Eastern Interior tonight through Sat. Expect 2-3 inches of
snow with this today through Fri over the Western Interior, with
3-6 inches over south slopes of the Alaska Range, and 1-2 inches
of snow over the remainder of the Interior tonight through Sat.
Light snow will continue along and east of this front Fri into
Sat, with clouds decreasing west of the front Fri night and Sat
which will allow significant drop in surface temperatures this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at 00Z and show similar solutions through
3pm Sat. After that time, NAM, GFS and Canadian models maintain a
slightly deeper trough over mainland Alaska than the ECMF. Prefer
the GFS/NAM/Canadian solutions over the ECMF.

At 850 MB, all models show temperatures remaining much warmer than
normal today, dropping slightly on Fri, with a much sharper drop
on the weekend. This will lead to little change in surface
temperatures today, a slight drop on Fri, and a sharp drop to
below normal on the weekend.

With precipitation fields, models show fairly similar solutions
through Sat. Will use a blend of the GFS, NAM and ECMF precip
fields through Sat.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verified 5 mb too weak on the
surface low near Inuvik, and too weak on the surface gradient
across the Alaska Range, and along the West Coast from Point Hope
to the Bering Strait. Models verify well on other features and
show similar solutions through Sat.

Will use blend of the GFS and NAM for winds, but due to
differences from conditions cited above will adjust winds as
follows: expect west winds 10-15 kt along the Eastern Arctic
Coast this morning until the surface low near Inuvik moves east,
expect South winds gusting 50-60 mph through Alaska Range Passes
to continue into this afternoon, and expect north winds gusting
40-50 mph along the West Coast from Point Hope to the Bering
Strait along with reduced visibility in blowing snow to continue
through midnight tonight before winds slowly decrease.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

JB FEB 20