Blizzard Warning 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

974 
WWAK41 PAFG 141900
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1000 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

AKZ203-142000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-201114T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1000 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ204-150600-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0017.000000T0000Z-201115T0600Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1000 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very 
  difficult.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 55 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ201-150600-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0022.201116T0300Z-201117T0000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
1000 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Travel could be very 
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  possible.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph could 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions means there is a
potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and
extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions
and make travel very difficult.

$$

605 
WWAK41 PAFG 142211
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

AKZ204-142315-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0017.000000T0000Z-201115T0600Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
111 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ201-151500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0022.201116T0300Z-201117T0000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
111 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Travel could be very 
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  possible.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph could 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant 
  drifting of the snow is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions means there is a
potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and
extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions
and make travel very difficult.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKST Fri Nov 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern is setting up again over Northern Alaska
with a series of storms expected to impact portions of Northern
Alaska beginning tonight and continuing into late next week and
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 13/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
surface analysis and verified well against the 18z surface
analysis. Model spread in the short range is minimal and
reasonable in both the mid range and the extended range. Run to
run continuity remains fair with general concensus of a
significant upper level ridge building over the eastern Bering
Sea on Sunday of this weekend and Western Alaska Monday. The ridge
axis continues to be displaced further and further to the east
over the Interior and as a result the deep upstream trough over
the Eastern Bering Sea will host a series of strong shortwave
systems that will push into the Northwest and North Slope Sunday
night and Monday and into the Central Bering Sea on Tuesday night
and Wednesday and into the Eastern Bering and West Coast
Wednesday night and Thursday. The upper level ridge diminishes
rapidly on Thursday and Friday over the Eastern Interior and the
Yukon and helps deepen a large longwave trough over the Central
and Eastern Bering Sea. A strong shortwave pushes east along the
Aleutian Islands Thursday night and Friday and a very strong
shortwave dives southeast into the longwave producing a negative
tilt of the longwave on Sunday evening and Monday of next weekend
and the following week. This favorable upper level environment
will likely aid in deep cyclogenisis over the Western Bering Sea
on Sunday and Monday next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mostly cloudy skies this evening, with areas of fog and flurries
over the Western North Slope. A front wrapping around a deep low
in the High Arctic will bring snow and blowing snow over the
Eastern North Slope beginning tonight and continuing through
Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow has been
issued for Pt. Thomson east to Barter Island where northwest winds
of 35 to 45 mph with gusts over 50 mph combined with light
falling snow will produce low visibilities in blowing snow. A
second storm will push east out of the Chukchi Sea Sunday night
and Monday and will bring the possibility of blizzard or near
blizzard conditions to to the Western Brooks Range and Western
North Slope late Sunday night and Monday. The storm will push east
bringing the possibility of blizzard or near blizzard conditions
over all of the North Slope Monday and into Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak frontal system over much of the West Coast and Western
Interior continues to produce light snow over the area. The
heaviest snow will remain confined to the Lower Yukon Valley where
an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected through this
evening. The low in the Chukchi Sea that is expected to produce
near Blizzard conditions Sunday night and Monday on the North
slope will also impact areas of the Western Brooks Range and
West Coast mostly to the north of the Bering Strait Sunday night
and Monday with snow and blowing snow. A period of strong
southwest to westerly winds beginning Sunday evening and
continuing through Monday will bring the potential for high surf,
elevated water levels and beach erosion for the Chukchi Sea
Coasts, especially the Northern Seward Peninsula to the west of
Cape Espenberg and north of Cape krusenstern along the Chukchi Sea
Coast.

The first in a series of Bering Sea storms is expected to move
move into the Western Bering Sea on Wednesday will bring another
round of snow and blowing snow as well as strong southerly and
southeasterly winds ahead of a front that is expected to push
onto the West Coast on Wednesday night and into Thursday. South
facing coastlines along the Bering Strait and Seward Peninsula
will be at risk for high surf, elevated water levels and beach
erosion. A second strong storm will move along the Aleutian Chain
Friday night and Saturday and will bring moderate strong off shore
winds to the YK Delta and Norton Sound on Saturday with minimal
coastal impacts expected. A very strong Bering Sea Storm is
expected to develop next weekend over the Western and Central
Bering Sea with several models dropping pressure on this storm in
the neighborhood of 940 mb. Model guidance on the track and
ultimate strength of this storm will likely vary significantly
over the next week and will be crucial on the where and when and
the severity of any coastal impacts that may occur. Continue to
monitor.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A weak frontal system draped over the interior continues to
bring periods of light snow mainly from south and east of a line
from Fort Yukon to Manley Hot Springs to McGrath where 1 to 2
inches of snow is expected before diminishing tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, relatively benign weather conditions with a general
cooling trend for much of the Central and Eastern Interior through
the weekend into early next week. High temperatures will cool to
the single digits to teens below zero with lows dropping into the
20s below zero by Sunday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A period of strong
southwest to westerly winds beginning Sunday evening and
continuing through Monday will bring the potential for high surf,
elevated water levels and beach erosion for the Chukchi Sea
Coasts, especially the Northern Seward Peninsula to the west of
Cape Espenberg and north of Cape krusenstern along the Chukchi Sea
Coast.

The first in a series of Bering Sea storms is expected to move
move into the Western Bering Sea on Wednesday will bring another
round of strong southerly and southeasterly winds ahead of a
front that is expected to push onto the West Coast on Wednesday
night and into Thursday. South facing coastlines along the Bering
Strait and Seward Peninsula will be at risk for high surf,
elevated water levels and beach erosion. A second strong storm
will move along the Aleutian Chain Friday night and Saturday and
will bring moderate strong off shore winds to the YK Delta and
Norton Sound on Saturday with minimal coastal impacts expected. A
very strong Bering Sea Storm is expected to develop next weekend
over the Western and Central Bering Sea with several models
dropping pressure on this storm in the neighborhood of 940 mb.
Model guidance on the track and ultimate strength of this storm
will likely vary significantly over the next week and will be
crucial on the where and when and the severity of any coastal
impacts that may occur. Continue to monitor.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...The first in a series of Bering
Sea storms is expected to move move into the Western Bering Sea on
Wednesday will bring another round of snow and blowing snow as
well as strong southerly and southeasterly winds ahead of a front
that is expected to push onto the West Coast on Wednesday night
and into Thursday. South facing coastlines along the Bering Strait
and Seward Peninsula will be at risk for high surf, elevated water
levels and beach erosion. A second strong storm will move along
the Aleutian Chain Friday night and Saturday and will bring
moderate strong off shore winds to the YK Delta and Norton Sound
on Saturday with minimal coastal impacts expected. A very strong
Bering Sea Storm is expected to develop next weekend over the
Western and Central Bering Sea with several models dropping
pressure on this storm in the neighborhood of 940 mb. Model
guidance on the track and ultimate strength of this storm will
likely vary significantly over the next week and will be crucial
on the where and when and the severity of any coastal impacts that
may occur. Continue to monitor.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 20