Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

742 
WWAK41 PAFC 072004
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1104 AM AKST Sat Nov 7 2020

AKZ145-081400-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.201108T0000Z-201109T0300Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
1104 AM AKST Sat Nov 7 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM AKST SUNDAY FROM TALKEETNA NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 
  20 inches expected with the highest totals along the Alaska 
  Range.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley from Talkeetna north and west.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Visibilities may be 
  severely limited in heavy snowfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area this 
  afternoon, will be heavy at times tonight through Sunday 
  morning, then will gradually taper off Sunday afternoon and 
  evening. South of Talkeetna, rain may mix in from late Sunday 
  morning through Sunday afternoon, resulting in lower storm 
  total snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-081400-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.201108T0600Z-201109T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
1104 AM AKST Sat Nov 7 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 PM AKST SUNDAY NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18
  inches.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with heaviest amounts near
  Paxson..

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

200 
WWAK41 PAFC 081328
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ145-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201109T0300Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
428 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FROM TALKEETNA NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Additional snow accumulation of 7
  to 18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley from Talkeetna north and west.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Visibilities may be 
  severely limited in heavy snowfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue falling heavily at times
  this morning, then will gradually taper off this afternoon and
  evening. South of Talkeetna, rain may mix in from late this
  morning through the afternoon, resulting in lower storm total 
  snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
428 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of 12 to 
  18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with the heaviest amounts 
  near Paxson.

* WHEN...Through 9 PM AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

077 
WWAK41 PAFC 081604
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
704 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ145-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201109T0300Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
704 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FROM TALKEETNA NORTH AND WEST...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Additional snow accumulation of 7 
  to 18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley from Talkeetna north and west.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Visibilities may be 
  severely limited in heavy snowfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue falling heavily at 
  times this morning, then will gradually taper off this 
  afternoon and evening. South of Talkeetna, rain may mix in 
  from late this morning through the afternoon, resulting in 
  lower storm total snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-082100-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201108T2100Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
704 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to one inch. 

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wintry mix of precipitation will
  transition to all rain later this morning. As rain and freezing
  rain fall on snow covered roads, a thin layer of ice may
  develop. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit 511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-090515-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
704 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of 12 to 
  18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with the heaviest amounts 
  near Paxson.

* WHEN...Through 9 PM AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

497 
WWAK41 PAFC 081817
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
917 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ145-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201109T0300Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
917 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulation of 7 to 18 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Visibilities may be 
  severely limited in heavy snowfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue falling heavily at times
  this morning, then will gradually taper off this afternoon and
  evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-082100-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201108T2100Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
917 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain. Additional snow 
  accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wintry mix of precipitation will 
  transition to all rain later this morning. As rain and 
  freezing rain fall on snow covered roads, a thin layer of ice 
  may develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-090600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
917 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of 12 to 
  18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with the heaviest amounts 
  near Paxson.

* WHEN...Through 9 PM AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

368 
WWAK41 PAFC 081949
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1049 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ145-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201109T0300Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
1049 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulation of 7 to 18 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Visibilities may be 
  severely limited in heavy snowfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue falling heavily at times
  through this afternoon, then will gradually lighten up and taper
  off this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-090900-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0900Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
1049 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 7 inches, highest amounts along the 
  mountains.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wintry mix of precipitation will continue
  through this afternoon. There may be a brief transition to rain
  as southerly winds move in early this afternoon. However,
  precipitation will change back to all snow by early this
  evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-090600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0600Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
1049 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of 12 to 
  18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with the heaviest amounts 
  near Paxson.

* WHEN...Through 9 PM AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit 
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

603 
WWAK41 PAFC 090203
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ131-091515-
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0017.201109T1000Z-201109T2200Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
503 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKST MONDAY FOR
THOMPSON PASS...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing snow will reduce visibility as low
  as one quarter mile at times through Thompson Pass. Wind gusts
  to 55 mph may reduce visibility to one half mile at times
  through Keystone Canyon and Valdez.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ145-090600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201109T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
503 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches 
  expected. Highest amounts along the Parks Highway.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Visibilities may be 
  severely limited in heavy snowfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue through this evening,
  then will gradually lighten up and taper off by midnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-091400-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T1400Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
503 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY
NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with the heaviest amounts 
  near Paxson.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-090900-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0900Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
503 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. Highest amounts along the 
  mountains.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wintry mix of precipitation will change
  back to all snow by this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

088 
WWAK41 PAFC 090601
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
901 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ145-090715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-201109T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
901 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The heavier snow has now tapered off. Periods of light snow will
continue into the overnight hours.

$$

AKZ131-091900-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0017.201109T1000Z-201109T2200Z/
Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez and Thompson Pass
901 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Thompson Pass.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing snow will reduce visibility as 
  low as one quarter mile at times through Thompson Pass. Wind 
  gusts to 55 mph may reduce visibility to one half mile at 
  times through Keystone Canyon and Valdez.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-090900-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T0900Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
901 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. 
  Highest amounts along the mountains.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-091400-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-201109T1400Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
901 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
MONDAY NORTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Copper River Basin with the heaviest amounts 
  near Paxson.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKST Fri Nov 6 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper level low pressure along the Arctic Coast and a large upper
level high south of the Gulf of Alaska is bringing the 250 mb jet
stream and strong zonal westerly flow over the southern mainland
Alaska today. This is really the break between systems as dry air
aloft has trapped the low stratus over Cook Inlet with flurries
and freezing drizzle at times falling from the stratus.

Strong southwesterly winds in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
areas are diminishing this afternoon and the threat of coastal
flooding with this system has now abated for those areas.

The next storm which will move into southern Alaska this weekend
can be seen on satellite near 40N 170W this afternoon and starting
to make it move toward the northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The main issue with the models continues to be with the
development and track of a triple point low in the lower Cook
Inlet or North Gulf coast area on Sunday. While the solutions are
in better agreement overall than a few days ago, the track of this
triple point will be the main feature that determines whether the
Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage and Matanuska Valley gets all snow
or a mix of rain and snow on Sunday. The 18Z runs of the NAM and
GFS have edged slightly to the northwest putting the triple- point
over Kachemak Bay. Every little bit to the north or west this low
tracks increases the rain potential for the areas mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The lower ceilings around the area look like they will
persist much of the night and then improve late tonight as the
atmosphere will start to become better vertically mixed with the
approach of the next weather system. This next system will bring
snow to the terminal area by late Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The next 12-18 hours across Southcentral will remain relatively
quiet before the next big system arrives late Saturday morning
and continuing through Sunday. Expect the stratus deck that has
been across much of the Mat-Su Valleys Anchorage Bowl and the
Kenai Peninsula to remain in place through the overnight hours as
there is nothing to push these clouds out. Underneath this stratus
deck there may be some areas that experience some flurries from
time to time. Attention is now turning to the big storm system
expected to affect Southcentral late Saturday morning through
early Monday. This storm system is currently getting its act
together to the northwest of Hawaii. As this system comes
northward, it will be bringing a great deal of warm air with it.
This has been making the forecast for this system extremely
difficult. Storm track continues to be an issue with this system
as the ECMWF continues to bring this system northward through
Bristol Bay and just floods Southcentral with warm air. If this
solution pans out, even areas across the Susitna Valley may have
precipitation type issues but this looks unlikely. The NAM and GFS
show the same low the EC does moving northward into the Bristol
Bay region but it develops a triple point low or secondary low to
the east of Seward which then moves onward to Prince William
Sound. If the GFS and NAM solution pan out, thinking the Susitna
Valley has a great chance of seeing significant snowfall
accumulations from this system beginning Saturday afternoon
through Sunday afternoon.

As a result, a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the
Susitna Valley for the aforementioned time period. Due to the
uncertainty still on the track of this system, we will keep the
watch valid for at least a model cycle run or two before making a
decision on upgrading it to a warning or even advisory. Also,
places like Alyeska and Turnagain Pass may see upwards of 2 feet
of snow from this system, Hatcher Pass may receive 1.5 feet of
snow from it, while Thompson Pass will receive the highest totals
of 2.5 feet possibly from this system.

While the forecast is more certain in those areas, the forecast
continues to remain very difficult from Kenai northeastward
through Anchorage to Palmer in the Mat Valley. Of course, this is
through where much of the population is which is one area of the
forecast you would like to have that certainty but unfortunately
the certainty isn't there. Current thinking is precipitation will
start as snow area wide with the first places to changeover being
from north of Homer to Kenai east to Sterling Saturday evening.
For now, opted to keep Anchorage all snow with just a chance of
rain for Sunday morning. Track and how the new low develops will
be everything for what happens across much of Southcentral. Either
way this low is bringing so much warm air up that mixing with or
changing to all rain can't be ruled out. The threat still exists
for possibly advisory level snow across the Mat Valley, Anchorage
Bowl and the Kenai Peninsula but the risk is also there for this
to be all rain as well if the warm air gets in.

Model guidance then shows the cold air rushing back in Sunday
afternoon through early Monday as the upper trough swings through
which may cause a deformation band to sit over Anchorage for a
couple to several hours which is when the heaviest snowfall would
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Mostly dry conditions will continue through early Saturday
morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers are possible north of
Bethel this evening under a weak upper shortwave.

A low will approach from the North Pacific on Saturday morning.
There is better model consensus today, with the GFS/NAM taking
the low center slightly farther north and other models trending
slightly south. As such, there is good confidence now that the
center will move along the north coast of the Alaska Peninsula.
Consequently, more warm air will move into interior Bristol Bay.
All rain is expected for much of this zone, with any snow confined
to higher elevations. This will likewise be the case for much of
the Kuskokwim Delta. Higher sea surface temperatures will lead to
all rain along the coast. Areas east of and including Bethel will
likely see a mix changing to all snow by Saturday night, however
accumulations will be minimal. The Middle Kuskokwim Valley will
see mostly all snow. Although temperatures in the snow growth
layer will be favorable, the associated upper trough is not deep
enough to produce much lift and temperatures gradually rise to
near freezing at the surface. Thus, the accumulating snowfall will
remain below advisory criteria in populated areas and lessen
farther west. Precipitation will end from west to east through
Sunday as the low departs over Southcentral. After a brief lull
overnight Sunday, another front will quickly move onshore Monday
morning. Given strong steering winds behind it along with strong
southwest flow, accumulating snow appears to be minimal at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 Through 3)...

Scattered showers will continue generally east of Unalaska this
evening. A low will approach from the North Pacific early Saturday
morning, bringing steady rain to the same aforementioned area
through Saturday night. A series of lows will bring periods of
rain to the western Bering/Aleutians through Monday. Gusty
southwesterly winds tracking west to east are likely with the
system on Sunday, eventually reaching the Pribilofs by the
evening.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Starting Sunday evening into early Monday morning, storm force
winds will emerge to the east and northeast of Kodiak, near
Barren Islands, and offshore marine zones. These winds are well
associated with a frontal system inland, but as the frontal zone
weakens Sunday night, the storm force winds will also diminish to
gales by Monday morning. Essentially, gales will subside to below
34 kt Monday afternoon, and so will hazardous wave heights by
Monday evening.

Bering Sea:

On Sunday evening, the potential for storm force winds are
expected to extend up to 320 nm southeast of the low over the
Bering, and up to 150 nm south of the same system. Wave heights
will peak to 30 feet near the center of the low Sunday night. The
areal coverage of developing storm force winds will gradually
reduce Sunday night along the southeast quadrant of the low, then
essentially taper off to gales by Monday mid-morning. As the low
weakens while tracking northeastward toward Yukon Bay, so will
the winds and seas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

There is high confidence that the pattern will remain active
through the forecast period. Synoptically on Monday there will be
ridging over the Gulf and southern Mainland with a trough over the
Bering Sea. At this time a moderately strong surface low is
expected to be over the northern Bering. For Southwest Alaska
this should mean snow transitioning to rain as the warm front
moves north throughout the day on Monday. On Tuesday a complex
upper level trough moves east into the Bering from the Kamchatka
Peninsula. Models are in poor agreement in regards to finer
details of the resulting surface low, or low complex, but impacts
indicate widespread rain across Southwest Alaska on Tuesday and
early Wednesday. There is moderate agreement that a warm front
will push into Southcentral on Wednesday with models in
disagreement in regards to precipitation type. Most models
indicate widespread warm air and therefore rain but a transition
to snow on Thursday is possible if a triple point low forms in the
Gulf. On Friday the low complex is expected to be southeast of the
AOR, which will result in the return of cold air to most of the
region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 145.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119.
 		 Gale Warning 120, 125, 130-132, 139, 150, 155 178, 351, 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB/CJ