Storm Warning 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

204 
FZAK62 PAFC 172259
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
259 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181300-
259 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low near 49N 165E this morning moves to 54N 170E at 966 
mb late tonight, then moves to 62N 177E at 975 mb late Wed night. 
High pressure is in place over the eastern Bering for Wed.

$$

PKZ411-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
259 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.  and rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
259 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft building to 25
to 29 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
259 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 10
to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
259 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

967 
FZAK62 PAFC 172305
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
305 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181300-
305 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low near 49N 165E this morning moves to 54N 170E at 966 
mb late tonight, then moves to 62N 177E at 975 mb late Wed night. 
High pressure is in place over the eastern Bering for Wed.

$$

PKZ411-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
305 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.  and rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
305 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 40 kt becoming 35 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 to 28 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft building to 25
to 29 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
305 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 10
to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
305 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

071 
FZAK62 PAFC 181200
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190145-
400 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low near 54N 171E moves into eastern Russia late Wed
night. Its associated front dissipates over the eastern Bering
through Wed afternoon. High pressure builds over the eastern
Bering and Aleutians Thu night.

$$

PKZ411-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft building to 25 to 29
ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 6 to 11
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

796 
FZAK62 PAFC 182334
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191245-
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 58N 172E moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Thursday
morning while slowly dissipating. Southwesterly flow develops
across the Bering Thursday morning and continues through Saturday
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-191245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 6 to 11
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKDT Mon Mar 16 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The high pressure over the Gulf and Southcentral remains today,
but is weakening and moving southeastward away from the region.
A weak trough along the north Gulf of Alaska coast is a small
feature, but important enough to keep those gap winds from Seward
through Prince William Sound going today.

A low south of the Alaska Peninsula and associated front will
move over Kodiak tonight and into Southcentral tomorrow. The large
low is still a bit southwest of Attu but will move into the
Bering Sea Tuesday night and become the main weather feature out
west the remainder of the week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models can now be considered in very good agreement with forecast
confidence increasing. Even the precipitation-type questions over
Southwest Alaska are becoming more clear with the latest model
runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Monday
night. Snow will move into the area Tuesday bringing MVFR or IFR
conditions to the terminal in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure remains in place over Southcentral AK. However, a
weak area of low pressure will push northeastward from Kodiak into
the Southcentral coast tonight into tomorrow night. This will
induce a barrier jet and turnagain arm winds. Recent model runs
show the barrier jet will be stronger than initially forecast, so
we upped barrier jet strength. Southcentral can continue to
expect light precipitation out of this system as well. Most
locations will remain cold enough to see snow, however it will be
warm enough along the coast of the southern Kenai for places like
Homer to see rain. Overall, the forecast looks to be on track so
little change was made. Confidence is high with good model
agreement with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An area of low pressure currently centered south of the Alaska
Peninsula will drift northward and inland over the Bristol Bay
region. As the leading warm front moves in over Southwest Alaska,
expect warming temperatures and widespread precipitation. The main
forecast challenge continues to be precipitation type. A mix of
snow and potentially freezing rain will begin at the onset tonight
followed by a change to rain Tuesday as temperatures continue to
warm. As an upper level trough moves over the area late Tuesday,
colder temperatures will be reintroduced at the mid-levels,
allowing for a return to snow, especially over the Kuskokwim Delta
area Tuesday evening.

Any lingering precipitation will taper off by Wednesday as an
upper level ridge moves in over Southwest Alaska. A frontal
system associated with a storm force low moving north toward the
Gulf of Anadyr will bring the area another round of wintry weather
beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday
afternoon. Areas north of Dillingham and King Salmon will remain
all snow at this time as temperatures will be falling at 850mb as
the precipitation is moving through. Areas south will remain
mostly rain with the an area of rain/snow mix possible near
Egegik.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Weak, unorganized flow across the Bering is keeping stratus and
low level moisture in place, especially over the Pribilof Islands.
A ridge of high pressure builds over the area for Tuesday
morning, allowing low level stratus and fog to persist.

Meanwhile, a storm force low over the North Pacific will continue
moving northward early Wednesday morning with the center
remaining west of the western Aleutians and western Bering Sea.
Strong cold air advection on the backside of this low will bring
strong gusty winds to the region as a result. Therefore, storm
force winds were introduced in this forecast package for Wednesday
afternoon and evening over the western Aleutians. Winds will
begin to slowly subside early Thursday but still remain fairly
gusty with gale force winds expected through Thursday afternoon
and evening before subsiding further to small craft advisory
level.

The aforementioned low pressure will send a cold front through the
central Bering and central Aleutians Wednesday morning along with
strong southerly winds. This front will continue moving eastward
with a faster timeline expected for the Pribilof Islands.
Therefore, pops were increased to the likely category a few hours
earlier. All rain is expected with this front as plenty of warm
air will be in place as the front pushes through. Behind the
front, cold air advection will take over which will create gusty
winds on the backside of the low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Thu through Sat)...
On Thursday morning a front associated with a low in the eastern
Bering will enter the western Gulf bringing with it small craft
winds. There is low confidence that another triple point low will
form in the northern Gulf Thursday night. If it does, expect gale
force winds to occur through channels including Shelikof Strait,
the Barren Islands and through gaps and passes on the Pacific side
of the Alaska Peninsula through Saturday morning.

A gale force front over the Bering will continue to push
northeastward through Thursday before it exits the Bering
Friday. There is moderate confidence that another front will enter
the western Bering Friday night. Depending on the strength and
track of this front, gale force winds will be possible in the
western Bering through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7 Thu through Tue)...
Models continue to show good agreement that an upper level ridge
that extends from the Gulf north across the state, will continue
eastward into Canada on Thursday. Upstream, ahead of a large
Bering low, a strong front moves eastward across western Alaska
and the Peninsula. This front will impact the southwest coast
Thursday into Friday, bringing precipitation and strong southerly
flow. The track of this low still remains uncertain, though models
are showing the center departing the Bering to the north by
Friday. This will be followed by another upper level ridge moving
across the Bering and into southern Alaska through Sunday. Similar
to last week, warm temperatures and moist conditions will advect
into the Aleutians and Bering following the backside of the ridge.
This pattern will continue to alternate through Tuesday as upper
level troughs and ridges continue to follow one another across the
Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173>178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO/MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK