Storm Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

831 
FZAK52 PAFC 260028
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261345-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb North Pacific low 285 nm south of Shemya moves over
Amchitka at 992 mb Wed afternoon then dissipates by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-261345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261345-
Bristol Bay-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-261345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261345-
Unalaska Bay-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261345-
Adak to Kiska-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261345-
Kiska to Attu-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of
56N.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 57N.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of
57N.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-261345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-261345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an east to west oriented upper level ridge over southern
Alaska and the central to northern Bering Sea. An upper level
trough is generally to the south of this ridge, with the axis
stretching from just south of the Aleutians into the southern Gulf
of Alaska. Surface high pressure is generally over mainland
Alaska, with low pressure to the south. This is resulting in
generally offshore winds across Southern Alaska, and easterly
winds over most of the Bering and Aleutians. A strong surface low
is currently well south of Kodiak Island, and moving northward.
Several surface lows are south of the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through Wednesday
afternoon. There is still some minor disagreement on the location
of the surface low in the Gulf on Wednesday, but much less than in
previous model runs. This disagreement will make it challenging to
nail down some of the specific sensible weather details associated
with this storm.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. North winds will increase
through Tuesday morning, and may be gusty at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The most impactful storm expected this week will bring gusty
winds, snow and rain to the Gulf and surrounding coasts starting
tonight. Inland areas will stay on the dry side with gusty winds
increasing for north to south oriented gaps channeled through
terrain. The associated front moves across Kodiak Island to the
Central Gulf waters this evening. Precipitation will start out as
snow then eventually mix with rain on Tuesday, although the
central Gulf waters should change over to all rain as soon as the
front pulls across. Kodiak Island is expected to receive moderate
to heavy snow as the frontal occlusion slowly sets up a boundary
which stretches along a line from Kodiak City to Middleton Island
Tuesday morning. There is some uncertainty on how quickly the
lowest levels will warm, but the change over to mixed
precipitation is currently expected to occur after the noon hour
Tue. Ongoing snow and rain continues across Kodiak Island through
Wednesday with this system.

The front drapes across the western Gulf to Prince William Sound
and Northeast Gulf Tuesday afternoon and stalls through Thursday. Storm
force winds across the Gulf taper down to gales by late Tuesday
afternoon. Storm force winds across the Barren Islands to Shelikof
Strait persist through late Tuesday evening before trending down.
Snow will mix with rain along the the coastal locations with the
highest accumulations along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
western Prince William Sound. While the front remains over the
coastal locations, the associated surface low slowly tracks north
with the 980 mb center just east of Kodiak Island Wednesday
morning, weakening to 990 mb as it approaches Prince William Sound
Thursday morning.

Inland areas will see warming temperature trends and increasing
clouds Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. A few snow showers pull
inland across the Copper River Valley Tuesday night through
Wednesday with a better chance to see widespread showers across
Southcentral on Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

As a front in the North Pacific lifts northward, winds will begin
to increase across the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay as the
pressure gradient tightens through Tuesday. Chances for snow and
blowing snow return to the eastern Alaska Peninsula, generally
from Sand Point east, late this evening and throughout the day
Tuesday, with little snow accumulation expected. Blowing snow does
not look to reach advisory criteria as visibilities should remain
above the half mile mark due to the warmer temperatures. The
remainder of southwest Alaska, from King Salmon northward, will
remain dry through Tuesday night. As winds move into the Kuskokwim
Delta region, expect wind chills to return to near 20 below zero.
As the front in the North Pacific continues its northward
propagation, it will also weaken. This will bring calmer and drier
conditions to the Southwest into Wednesday along with warmer
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A storm force low moves south of the eastern Aleutians with
another low just south of Kodiak Island tonight. A tightened
pressure gradient, between these two lows, will keep widespread
snowfall and blowing snow across the Aleutians through Tuesday
evening. Dutch Harbor is expected to see around 8 inches of snow
over the next 36 to 48 hours. Strong winds and snowfall will then
begin to taper off as this strong pressure gradient propagates
north. Looking ahead to Wednesday, the low over Kodiak will move
northeast and the low south of the eastern Aleutians will move
north. These will continue to weaken and lose their influence,
with calmer and drier conditions expected across the Aleutians and
the Bering through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Thu through Sat)...
Winds look to remain below gale force from Thursday through Friday
morning. Later Friday a strong system will move into the western
and central Aleutians, and into the Bering Friday night and
Saturday. This system will bring gale to possibly storm force
winds across the western and central Aleutians and most of the
Bering Sea. On Friday night there is also a chance of some
westerly gales through the Barren Islands area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Fri through Mon)...
On Friday morning the pattern will consist of an eastward moving
trough over western Alaska, an east to west oriented ridge across
the central Bering, and a deep trough southwest of the western
Aleutians. On Friday the western Alaska trough slide east across
the area and weaken. A deep upper low in the western trough will
move northeast into the western Aleutians Friday night then into
the Bering on Saturday. This will turn the flow aloft to southwest
over the eastern Bering through southern Alaska, with a fairly
consolidated jet pushing northward. This will result in a fairly
active pattern Sunday and Monday with the best chance for snow
for the southern mainland this week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 171. Winter Storm Watch 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 351 352 130-136 138 150
		 Gale Warning 119 120 127 128 137 138 411 412 155 160 165
					  178 185
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 139 414 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK/SA
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL