Storm Warning 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

377 
FZAK62 PAFC 071252
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080145-
352 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1000 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula moves to 58N 152W at 1009
mb and dissipates tonight. A 973 mb low near 47N 175E moves to 
55N 170W at 963 mb for Saturday morning then to 59N 163W at 978 
mb for Saturday afternoon. A 964 mb low at 48N 166E moves to 48N
172E at 985 mb by Sat morning then to 51N 173W for Sunday 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt becoming NE 35 to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. now.
.SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

125 
FZAK62 PAFC 080013
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081445-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 mb low at 51N 173W moves to 67N 168W at 999 mb by Sun 
afternoon. Its front pushes into Western Alaska through Sun 
afternoon. A 971 mb low near 49N 168E moves to 54N 164W as an 
elongated 1020 mb low on Sun afternoon. Its front slides over 
the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula for Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt becoming N up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow.
.SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

105 
FZAK62 PAFC 081247
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090215-
347 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 966 mb low near 55N 168W moves to 58N 163W at 979 mb Saturday 
afternoon then pushes onshore near Quinhagak at 982 mb by Saturday
night. A 982 mb low at 49N 169E moves to 54N 165W as an elongated
1020 mb low by Sun afternoon and dissipates by Monday morning. A 
976 mb low near 47N 166E Sunday morning moves to 50N 166E at 958 
mb Monday morning. Its front sweeps across the western Bering and
Aleutians through Monday.

$$

PKZ411-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt...except S 50 kt south of 56N becoming W
25 kt late afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

893 
FZAK62 PAFC 090000
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091330-
300 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 mb low at 60N 163W moves to 67N 164W at 1021 mb and dissipates
Midday Mon. A 990 mb North Pacific low moves to 49N 166E at 954 mb 
Mon morning then continues to 51N 165E at 958 mb for Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
300 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
300 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
300 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
300 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming E up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKST Thu Feb 6 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level trough and associated weak surface low over Prince
William Sound is producing areas of light snow and low stratus
over the Copper River Basin. Along the immediate coast, a low-
level southerly flow has advected enough warmer, marine air to
push temperatures a couple of degrees above freezing. This has led
to a mix of rain and snow for areas like Cordova and Valdez
overnight. Elsewhere across Southcentral, light snow and low cloud
cover persists from Anchorage north to Talkeetna and Skwentna.
This is due to an upper-level trough lifting northeast across Cook
Inlet this morning. Weak ridging behind the trough has ushered in
clearer and drier conditions for the southern half of the Kenai
Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and portions of the Alaska Peninsula.

A surface front draped across the interior of Alaska is separating
milder air across Bristol Bay from arctic air moving south across
the Y-K Delta this morning. Temperatures from Bethel north and
west are in the single digits to below zero while south and east
temperatures are in the upper teens to near 30 degrees. Light snow
is also falling across the Kuskowim Delta along the front.

For the Bering and Aleutians, an upper-level low is situated over
the central Bering. At the surface, a complex low with multiple
centers of circulation is centered just north of Atka this
morning. One center of circulation is southwest of the Pribilofs
and is bringing occasional snow and easterly wind gusts to the
islands. A second is east of Atka and a third is north of Adak.
The low near Adak is producing northwesterly gales and snow across
portions of the western Aleutians. Yet another low is south of
Dutch Harbor and is producing some rain and southerly winds across
the eastern half of the Chain and far southern AKPEN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement with the overall
synoptic-scale pattern into the weekend. The larger differences
are with the placement and strength of the various lows forming
the complex low system currently over the central Aleutians and
AKPEN through early Friday. However, given the model spread, the
resultant weather impacts remain fairly similar. Thus, the
forecast confidence is above average. The NAM and NAMnest were
favored, especially for winds over the Southern Mainland, given
the higher resolution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...General MVFR conditions are expected through Thursday
morning, mainly for lower ceilings. Some light snow is still
possible early this morning, but is not expected to significantly
reduce visibility. Southerly winds have developed across the
terminal overnight and are expected to continue through Thursday
evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to return Thursday night with
the potential for fog in the vicinity of the airport complex. IFR
visibility is possible for a time Thursday night if fog does
moves over the terminal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Light snow rapidly diminishes this morning as the front and
associated trough moves northeast and dissipates. Short wave
ridging gives a pause in the weather today with clouds scattering
across much of Southcentral this afternoon. The next front moves
to Kodiak Island this evening, taking a northward track overnight.
Precipitation will spread across the gulf and eastern areas of
the Kenai through midnight and then afterwards to Prince William
Sound and the northeast Gulf coasts. Light rain is expected over
the Gulf with mainly snow along the coasts and inland locations.
The surface low driving this front rapidly fills by Friday
afternoon.

A strong storm system develops Friday and pushes yet another
front to Kodiak Island Friday evening. This front will be a
powerful system that impacts Southcentral through Saturday night.
Strong gusty winds increase Friday evening for the Western Gulf
and then increase for the Kenai Peninsula late Friday night. This
system should be monitored for updates as stronger winds are
anticipated through channeled terrain. Snow amounts are also being
monitored across the southern Copper River Valley as there is
still some uncertainty on how quickly the cold pool erodes at the
surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening low over Southwest mainland will keep snow showers in
the forecast this morning across the Y-K Delta and Kuskokwim
Valley, which will taper off through late morning. A shortwave
ridge building in over interior Bristol Bay this morning will keep
low stratus and dry conditions early today. The next round of
precipitation moves in near Dillingham this afternoon and shifting
northeastward tonight associated with a surface low moving over
the AKPEN throughout the day. There is still uncertainty in the
exact track of this low as it moves eastward through Friday
afternoon. Dry conditions will persist across the Kuskokwim Delta
tonight as gusty winds and colder air move into the area. A Wind
Chill Advisory remains in effect from Hooper Bay to Kipnuk, where
there will be the coldest advection.

The pattern will then shift Friday evening when a warm front moves
across the AKPEN into Southwest Alaska. The biggest forecast
challenge is how far north this system will travel. However,
widespread precipitation is expected as it moves farther inland
overnight Friday into Saturday. With gusty conditions still in
place across the Y-K Delta, blowing snow is a forecast concern as
precipitation begins to move inland Friday night and through
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active pattern remains across the Bering Sea and Aleutians
today. A complex low over the central Bering will progress
eastward, shifting its energy to a low developing over Cold Bay
this afternoon. A small area of gale force winds will accompany
the low as it tracks over the AKPEN overnight tonight.

Over the central Aleutians, models are in better agreement today with
a storm force low that will move between Adak and Dutch Harbor by
Friday afternoon. There is some model discrepancy as the low
tracks eastward, but strong winds and widespread precipitation
will accompany this storm.

To the west, models are still tracking a strong storm system that
will begin to move over the western Aleutians and Bering Friday
afternoon. The biggest question of uncertainty is whether a low
will develop near Shemya (NAM solution) from the storm-force parent
low that remains southwest of the forecast area. The GFS/EC
solution was favored for this forecast package, keeping widespread
gale force winds stretched across the central and western Bering
and Aleutians Friday and Saturday. However, storm force wind gusts
are still likely.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A strong low will be in the eastern Bering Sea with a front
extending across the Gulf of Alaska Friday. This low and front
will likely support gale force winds across the Gulf of Alaska,
Kodiak Island Waters and the North Gulf Coast Saturday. The lows
and gradient weaken Sunday and wind across the Gulf of Alaska,
Kodiak Island and south central Alaska coastal waters will remain
below gale force Sunday and Monday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

Beginning Friday night, storm force winds will move over the
waters south of the Aleutians and track eastwards. By Saturday,
the winds north of the AK Pen will strengthen to storm force as
well. This storm is expected to weaken rapidly during the day on
Saturday and by Sunday, winds will weaken to gales or lighter
across the area. Late Sunday, a new storm in the western Aleutians
will bring gale force winds, but these will remain west of Atka
and continue to weaken through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...

Active weather remains on tap for the southern mainland and
Kodiak Island through the long term Saturday through Wednesday.
Strong low pressure over the eastern bering Sea supports a strong
gradient across SouthCentral Alaska Saturday along with an influx
of warm moist air. This will bring above normal temperatures to
the region along with strong winds, especially across the coastal
mountains, that will support Chinook-like conditions. Continuing
through the weekend there will be a strong southwest flow. An
upper level ridge then pushes into western Alaska and builds over
the mainland through Tuesday to then have a strong upper level
trough push into the mainland Wednesday. At the surface the models
are not in great agreement, thus the confidence in the longer
term forecast is not high and will reflect the expected trends of
the weather for Monday through Wednesday.

In the west, the first concern is the storm moving through the
region on Saturday. There is some warm air associated with this
system, but that looks like it will remain over Bristol Bay and
the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Meanwhile, northerly winds to the west
will bring plenty of cold air down over the Kuskokwim Delta.
Residents in this area should be on the lookout for traditional
wintry weather with winds and snow reducing visibility along the
coast. By Sunday this system will weaken dramatically as it moves
northeastward and relatively quiet conditions will begin the week.
As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, the model forecasts begin
to differ greatly. GFS indicates a strengthening low in the
central Aleutians, but other model solutions indicate a weaker low
moving through the Bering. Therefore, confidence is low on timing
and strength of weather systems moving through western Alaska
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 185 411 412 414.
		 Gale Warning 155 170 172>174 178 179 185 411>414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF/SA