Storm Warning 214, NWS Anchorage, AK

300 
FZAK51 PAFC 061805
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

Updated Zones 119 120

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070415-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 947 mb low 250 nm southeast of Sand Point moves to 125 nm south of
Kodiak Island at 963 mb Mon morning and then moves to 30 nm west of 
Seward at 978 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-070415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance
of thunderstorms in the evening.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers
and snow. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance
of thunderstorms in the evening.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070415-
Resurrection Bay-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070415-
Prince William Sound-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and widespread rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070415-
Port Valdez-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070415-
Valdez Narrows-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070415-
Valdez Arm-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070415-
Passage Canal-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Widespread rain showers and
snow. 
.MON...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14  ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain
showers and  snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070415-
Barren Islands East-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, seas 19 ft building to 26 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind 15 kt becoming
W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070415-
Chiniak Bay-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers
and  snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain
showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070415-
Marmot Bay-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers
and  snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070415-
Shelikof Strait-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Widespread rain
showers. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray during the
evening. Snow and rain. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray during
the evening. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.  
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-070415-
Kachemak Bay-
905 AM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

925 
FZAK51 PAFC 070002
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071315-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 950 mb low 400 nm south of Kodiak Island moves to 150 nm east 
of Kodiak Island at 967 mb Mon morning and then moves inland over 
the Kenai Peninsula Mon evening.

$$

PKZ119-071315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
26 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071315-
Resurrection Bay-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain
and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071315-
Prince William Sound-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071315-
Port Valdez-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071315-
Valdez Narrows-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071315-
Valdez Arm-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071315-
Passage Canal-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas
2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
15 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071315-
Barren Islands East-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 22
ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 26
ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. N of 
Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt becoming W 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071315-
Chiniak Bay-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Widespread 
rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071315-
Marmot Bay-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071315-
Shelikof Strait-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-071315-
Kachemak Bay-
302 PM AKST Sun Dec 6 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Low level temperature inversions allowed the stratus and fog to
persist across Turnagain Arm, Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska Valley,
and Copper River Basin. Satellite imagery and observations showed
some lifting of low conditions across the Anchorage Bowl. With the
exception of the aforementioned areas, generally fair skies
prevailed across Southcentral. Southwest Alaska for the most part
experienced fair skies with broad offshore(north) flow. Gusty
northerly winds combined with temperatures below zero in spots
produced wind chills in the minus 20s. Satellite imagery showed
an intense fully occluded surface low just south of 50n and near
160w. The low with its associated front were moving north. Winds
in advance of the front were increasing with the approach of the
front and should reach storm strength in the coastal waters south
of the Alaska Peninsula. Gale force easterly winds were evident
over the eastern Bering Sea becoming northerly along the
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models synoptically are in good agreement through Tuesday
afternoon. Hand edits and higher resolution models will be used to
capture the finer details.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...light northerly winds are expected through tonight. Low
stratus and fog continues to lurk across the Anchorage Bowl and
Knik Arm. The hope is that the northerly winds will remain steady
and minimize the potential for low conditions to redevelop at the
terminal. That said, still can't rule of the potential for
occasional lower ceilings/visibility overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low clouds, patchy freezing fog and flurries have continued
around the Anchorage area into this afternoon up against the
Chugach Mountains. Northerly flow will increase tonight which
should result in a gradual erosion of these low clouds.

Attention now turns to a powerful North Pacific low that will be
lifting into the region over the next couple of days. This low is
currently analyzed at a stout 944 mb and is likely at its peak
intensity, with gradual weakening expected as it lifts into the
western Gulf of Alaska late this weekend into Monday.

Ahead of the low, a front will lift towards Kodiak Island tonight
into early tomorrow morning, bringing a couple of inches of snow
before a rapid transition to rain later tomorrow morning.

The front then lifts north and begins to impact the eastern Kenai
Peninsula through the north Gulf Coast starting later tomorrow
morning, with precipitation near the coast starting as a rain/snow
mix, but changing to mostly rain in the lower elevations by
tomorrow evening. The Anchorage Bowl looks to see little in the
way of precipitation on Sunday thanks to strong cross-barrier
flow.

As the front pushes further into the interior, snow levels will
steadily rise, climbing to 1,500 to 2,500 feet from the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula through Prince William Sound on Monday. There
remains the potential for some mixed precipitation around
Anchorage on Monday, but any mixed precipitation that does occur
looks to be quite light given continued moderate cross-barrier
flow.

On Monday night/early Tuesday the low heads towards Prince
William Sound while continuing to weaken. Cross-barrier flow off
the Chugach will weaken allowing for increasing precipitation
chances across the Anchorage Bowl. While a wintry mix is possible
during the early morning hours, colder air should work in by late
morning changing things over to all snow. Some light accumulations
are not out of the question for Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday)...

Increasingly active weather is expected across Southwest to start
the week. This is due to a strong and broad North Pacific low
moving northeast from 45N 160W Sunday into the north Gulf Coast
late Monday. As the storm slowly moves northeast, its broad
influence will help strengthen an elongated upper level low as it
moves south and over the region from the northern interior. Lee
side troughing is also expected to occur which will aid in the
development of a surface low over Bristol Bay late Monday. This
storm should bring widespread light snow to Southwest with the
heaviest snow over the Y-K Delta under the occluded front.
Moderate northeasterly winds will also bring the potential for
blowing snow late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday)...

A storm force low in the North Pacific will move slowly northeast
into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday night while high pressure
exists over the northern Bering. This will result in persistent,
strong northeasterly winds over the eastern Bering through the
forecast period. Development of a low over Bristol Bay on Monday
will to reinforce these winds on Tuesday with snow likely as well.
Heavy freezing spray is also possible along the coast of
Southwest Alaska.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering: Tuesday starts with strong north-northeasterly flow in the
Eastern Bering and quiet elsewhere. Tuesday night into Wednesday
models are showing a strong low pressure system moving into the
Western and Central Aleutians. Models have a good amount of
disagreement on this low, but there is enough information to know
that this system will have a front with at least gale force winds
with it. These winds will impact the Western and Central
Aleutians/Bering. This low should also induce easterly flow for
the eastern Bering for most of the week.

Gulf of Alaska: On Tuesday a strong low will just be exiting the
Gulf of Alaska and weather should be calming down. Southwest winds
should be in place behind it. Another low is anticipated to enter
the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday, but will be much weaker with
little to no marine impacts. Models remain in disagreement on the
track of this next low, but all do agree it won't be as strong, so
we at least have moderate confidence in the forecast of low
pressure but little weather from it next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Significant uncertainty persists in the Long term guidance. This
poor performance leads to little confidence in what will happen
mid to late next week. Right now, we know there will be a strong
low just south of the Western and Central Aleutians Wednesday and
low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. However, placement of these
systems vary substantially between models. To further compound
the issue, moving forward in time from mid week to the weekend,
models progress these systems in very different directions.
Therefore, it's not possible to tell what will transpire, which
results in low confidence in overall in for the long term picture.
So, we know we will have generally unsettled weather for maritime
and coastal environments, while interior areas look to be quiet.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 138 150 155 172.
Gale Warning: 119 120 130-132 139 160-171 173 174 179-185 352 412 414.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 140 160 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB