Storm Warning 185, NWS Anchorage, AK

112 
FZAK52 PAFC 271249
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-280130-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 mb low 152 nm northeast of Shemya moves to 110 nm north of 
Adak at 985 mb by Saturday morning. A 966 mb low 170 nm east of 
Adak moves to 90 nm southeast of Sand Point at 963 mb by Saturday
morning.


$$

PKZ150-280130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-280130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 31 ft in the
afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 12 ft building to 19 ft
in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 40 kt
becoming NW after midnight. Seas 31 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-280130-
Bristol Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog.
Snow and rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-280130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt, Seas 17 ft. From Port Moller E, NE wind
25 kt becoming N 40 kt after midnight, Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft
after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-280130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ171-280130-
Unalaska Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-280130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 38 ft. Widespread rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
29 ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-280130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-280130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 65 kt early diminishing to 50 kt. Seas 39 ft. Snow 
showers and widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-280130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt early decreasing to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-280130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt early diminishing to 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-280130-
Adak to Kiska-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Bering Side W wind 50 kt. Pacific Side W wind 45 kt Seas 
21 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-280130-
Kiska to Attu-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-280130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-280130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Patchy fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-280130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the
coast.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the
coast. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-280130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

698 
FZAK52 PAFC 280010
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281300-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 low west of Unimak Island moves to 90 nm west of Middleton 
Island at 982 mb for Sun afternoon. A 975 mb low 260 nm north of 
Amchitka moves into the North Pacific at 1001 mb and its front 
dissipates Sun afternoon. A 989 mb North Pacific low and front moves 
to 250 nm south of Kiska Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-281300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Chirikof Island, SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt
afternoon. W of Chirikof Island, SW wind 30 kt becoming NW after
midnight. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Widespread 
rain and snow showers.
.SAT...E of Chirikof Island, E wind 20 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the 
afternoon. W of Chirikof Island, NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-281300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt, Seas 33 ft subsiding to 27 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 35 kt becoming NW
after midnight, Seas 27 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-281300-
Bristol Bay-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray along 
the coast, patchy fog and freezing fog. Snow and rain.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog and freezing fog. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-281300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt 
becoming N 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt except NW 35 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-281300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-281300-
Unalaska Bay-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 35 kt, then diminishing to 25 kt
after midnight. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-281300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 32 ft subsiding to 23 ft after midnight. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-281300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-281300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 26 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-281300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft
subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-281300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-281300-
Adak to Kiska-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 50 kt after 
midnight. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-281300-
Kiska to Attu-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-281300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-281300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray along the coast.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray along the coast.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-281300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
along the coast.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
along the coast.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-281300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A closed upper level low continues to be anchored over eastern
Russia with a negatively tilted trough extending into the Gulf of
Alaska. A ridge is currently positioned over the Alcan border.
This synoptic pattern allows for strong cold air advection over
the north Pacific. Embedded within and south of this flow is a
train of shortwaves which continue to bring active weather across
the Aleutian Chain. These waves then curve north into Southcentral
upon interaction with the North American ridge. Thus, the pattern
of active weather is expected to continue across the domain.

On Satellite, three features that will impact the forecast in the
short term can be easily identified. Over Southcentral the
remnants of a shortwave that brought wind, rain and snow to the
region is moving north into the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin. The second notable feature on satellite is the leading edge
of a cold airmass moving east over the north Pacific as a north-
south oriented front to the south of Kodiak Island. This is the
baroclinic zone that is expected to materialize into a few weak
low pressure systems moving into the Gulf and Southcentral later
today. Lastly, a large cloud shield and developing comma shaped
storm system can be seen to the south of Shemya.

The Kenai and Middleton Island Radars have both been
steadily clearing out this morning although a few lingering snow
showers exist over the Anchorage Bowl, Mat-Su Valleys and Prince
William Sound. Over Southwest Alaska, an upper level shortwave is
producing snow showers from King Salmon to Bethel. For the Bering,
cold air advection continues to produce scattered snow showers and
open cell cumulus clouds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall model agreement remains fair to good in the short term.
Models have somewhat common solutions for the low expected to move
into Southcentral later today; however, minor differences in the
low track and potential deformation band could have large
variation on snow totals for the population centers. Over the
Bering models continue to disagree on the position and strength of
the stronger of the two lows. Slight deviations in the track to
the north or south on Thursday night could mean the difference
between hurricane or storm force winds for Adak and Atka.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... A few remnant snow showers will continue through the early
morning hours, but drier air moving in along with clearing skies
from the south will end the snow threat for now for the rest of
the day. Tonight, a compact low will move into Southcentral from
the Gulf. There remains considerable uncertainty with the exact
track of the low, which will make quite a bit of difference as to
how much snow will fall tonight and for how long. The forecast
takes a middle-ground approach to the snowfall intensity. It is
very possible that there is less snow and conditions are better
than indicated, but also possible that a band of snow sets up over
the area which will make conditions worse.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Friday Night)...

Happy Thanksgiving! The mixed rain and snow event that has been
impacting Southcentral is finally winding down this morning. The
last of a snowband over northern Anchorage to JBER is dissipating.
Skies are clearing somewhat over the Kenai Peninsula, with the
clearing approaching Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Today will feature
a mix of sun and clouds in between systems, with temperatures
steady or gradually falling through the day. This is due to a
colder air mass working in combined with the partly cloudy skies
allowing more heat to escape than the weak late November sun can
replace.

Later on today, a small but potent low will move northward from
the North Pacific towards Southcentral. The low will pass near or
over Kodiak. From there, the models already begin to disagree on
the track of the low tonight. Most of the latest models bring the
low up Cook Inlet, though a few take some semblance of the low
further east into Seward or far western Prince William Sound near
Whittier. Since this low isn't associated with a warm air mass,
there remains relatively high confidence that snow will be the
main precipitation type, except right at the immediate coast. The
track of the low will determine who sees how much snow and for
how long. Thus the track uncertainty is causing significant
uncertainty in the snowfall amounts. Since the low will be
relatively fast moving, and most likely to track up Cook Inlet,
most areas should hold below 2 inches of total accumulation
overnight tonight. However, some of the model solutions continue
to suggest that a more persistent band of heavier snow will
develop west of the low track. If the low tracks up Cook Inlet,
this will most likely be over the western Susitna Valley, but
depending on smaller details of how the surface low interacts with
the upper level wave, some heavier snow could set up over
Anchorage and the Mat-Su as well. This would cause larger snowfall
amounts locally than is advertised. However, it appears that
since most of the snow will be associated with the low itself,
most areas should see relatively equal amounts of snow.

On Friday, as the low dissipates, a corridor of moisture is likely
to set up over the central Gulf, extending north into eastern
Prince William Sound. This could lead to higher snowfall amounts
from Cordova north through Valdez and Thompson Pass. Some of the
remnant moisture could extend north into the Copper River Basin as
well. This is not associated with an organized front, so wind is
not expected to be a concern during the snow in any of those
areas. Much of the rest of Southcentral will get another brief
break in between precipitation events.

Late Friday into Friday night, a strong low over the Bering will
extend an occluding front into the Gulf. It will first move into
Kodiak Friday afternoon. Then as the front elongates over the
Gulf, it will move eastward along the north Gulf Coast through
Saturday morning. The front could cause localized storm force
winds in the usual barrier jet areas south of Cordova, and across
the Barren Islands, but for most areas gales are expected. The
southeasterly flow associated with the front will focus the
precipitation along the coastal mountains, with Anchorage and the
Mat-Su sheltered from most, if not all precipitation through
Saturday morning. It will have somewhat warmer air with it, so
precipitation type concerns will be present just inland from the
coast, including Portage and Turnagain Pass. Gusty winds through
the gaps are expected as well, but are not expected to produce
warning level winds at any time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow showers will continue across Southwest Alaska, especially
along the coastal areas as cold air advection continues across the
eastern Bering into the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.
Temperatures will drop over the next 3 days as a strong area of
low pressure moves northeastward along the southern AKPEN and
stall over the northern Gulf Friday afternoon onward. This will
allow for brisk east- northeasterly offshore flow across the area
and advect continental polar air into the region. As this low
moves south of the AKPEN, precipitation is expected across the
AKPEN and Bristol Bay. There is a high confidence that the
precipitation type will be snow as models consistently have these
areas northwest of the low center which will keep temperatures
cold and allow for snow for the entirety of the event. Snowfall
totals will range from a coating to 2" for most of Bristol Bay.
Higher snowfall accumulations are expected in the Ahklun and
Kilbuck Mountains due to upslope enhancement. Snowfall totals of
3-6" with localized 5-9" possible in the Ahlkun and Kilbuck
Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A rapidly developing low pressure system in the North Pacific will
move into the central Aleutians this afternoon and evening. This
storm system will bring widespread gale and storm force winds to
the Aleutians. The strongest winds will reach Hurricane Force and
will be located across the central Aleutians tonight through
Friday mid-day. Due to the widespread Hurricane Force winds
expected, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the central
Aleutians (Zone 187) from 9pm AKST this evening through 12pm AKST
Friday. Winds will be locally higher in areas prone to funneling
from the west-northwest. Winds will gradually ease across the
Aleutians Friday afternoon onward as this storm system will move
south of the AKPEN and into the Gulf of Alaska at that time. Large
long period seas are expected in addition to these strong winds.
The largest seas will be along the Pacific side of the central and
eastern Aleutians as this is where the Hurricane Force westerly
winds will be located. These seas are expected to build near 40ft
tonight through Friday night and then will gradually abate
thereafter. Guidance is fairly consistent with the placement of
this low but varies on intensity forecasts with the GFS/NAM being
the strongest and ECMWF the weakest. A GFS/NAM blend was favored
as the dynamics of this system favor the stronger solutions due to
the trough-axis that this storm system is developing along is
changing its orientation from a positive to a negative slope which
favors rapid cyclogenesis. Furthermore, the GFS has been
performing the best over the past week with the intensity
forecasts of these lows, another reason this model was weighted
more than the rest of guidance.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...
A large and deep storm system will make its way from the Bering
Sea into the Gulf Friday night through Saturday, with widespread
gales across the region storm force winds likely along the leading
frontal boundary as it crosses the Gulf. As this system weakens in
the Gulf Saturday night, another storm force low will track south
of the Aleutian chain. As this storm approaches the Gulf on
Monday, the low will start to take a more northerly track. Thus,
there is potential for another round of storm force winds across
the Gulf waters as the leading front crosses the Gulf on Monday.
The forecast will stick with gales for now on Monday, but suspect
as we get closer models will settle on the stronger solution.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...
A seasonably strong upper level jet combined with progressive
upper level flow will persist through at least the first half of
next week. There is seemingly no end in sight to the supply of
large deep storm systems traversing the Alaska region. Starting
out on Sunday, one storm will be in the weakening phase over the
northern Gulf and Southcentral Alaska. Another storm will be
strengthening as it tracks just south of the Aleutian chain.
Expect widespread strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation
along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as this storm continues
eastward Sunday through Sunday night. As this low continues to
deepen, a short-wave ridge will strengthen out ahead of it, which
will then cause the storm to curve northward as it approaches the
Gulf. As a result, expect precipitation and wind to overspread
southern Alaska. Based on a storm track in the vicinity of the
Alaska Peninsula and the western Gulf, warm air will surge
northward toward Southcentral. Thus chances are this will be
primarily a rain event along the coast, with potential for enough
warm air to spread inland and cause precipitation to change to
rain there as well. The effects of this storm look to linger
through Wednesday, with colder air moving in behind it. Stay
tuned, as it's too early to nail down specific impacts from this
storm.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB