Storm Warning 181, NWS Anchorage, AK

852 
FZAK51 PAFC 250010
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251245-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A strong front enters the western Gulf and reaches the
northeastern Gulf Wed afternoon. A 993 mb low forms 320 nm
southeast of Sitkinak Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-251245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Near 
the coast, SE wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251245-
Resurrection Bay-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251245-
Prince William Sound-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 50 kt by afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after 
midnight.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251245-
Port Valdez-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251245-
Valdez Narrows-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. 
Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251245-
Valdez Arm-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251245-
Passage Canal-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind increasing to 35 kt by afternoon. Seas 
building to 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt shifting to W 30 kt by late morning. 
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251245-
Barren Islands East-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt shifting to SW 30 kt during the morning. 
Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt around midnight. 
Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251245-
Chiniak Bay-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt by midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt during the morning. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251245-
Marmot Bay-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt by midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251245-
Shelikof Strait-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt by midnight. 
Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt shifting to S late. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-251245-
Kachemak Bay-
310 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Satellite shows low pressure near the Kamchatka Peninsula with an
upper level trough stretching south across the western Bering to
just west of Attu Island. A transitory ridge is moving across the
central and eastern Aleutians, while a warm occluded low is over
the south central Gulf. At the surface, a frontal system is
moving into the western Bering and western Aleutians while a
surface ridge stretches from the Kuskokwim Delta south to the
eastern Aleutians. Finally, an occluded surface front stretches
from the northern Gulf and southeastward towards Southeast Alaska.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows rain in Prince William
Sound and coastal locations with temperatures in the upper 30s to
near 40. Some patches of light snow are seen near Valdez and
the eastern Kenai Peninsula with temperatures in the 30s. Out
west, radar shows some snow bands across northern parts of the
AKPEN from near King Salmon to around Katmai National Park with
temperatures in the upper 20s to the mid 30s. Across Southcentral,
breezy conditions in spots with east to northeast winds from the
MAT valley to Anchorage and south into the Kenai Peninsula with
gusts of 25 to 30 mph. It is much cooler across the Copper River
Basin with teens, but light winds. Near the low in the Gulf ASCAT
passes show winds 50 to 55 knots south of low and southeast of
Cordova with the barrier jet. Otherwise winds are gusty across the
AKPEN with gusts of 50 to 60 mph being observed with ASCAT
showing 45 to 50 knots across the adjacent marine zones of 150 and
155. Farther west strong winds at Adak Island with the next
frontal system with gusts to up to 62 mph, while Buoy 46073 and
the Pribilofs are showing gusts from 40 to 50 mph.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, model solutions remain in good agreement for the short
term. A triple point low that develops over the western Gulf Tue
night has also been resolving well across model solutions with
good agreement on the strength and track of this feature.
Generally, the higher resolution models were preferred for this
forecast package, especially to resolve local effect winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty northerly winds should be diminishing through the evening
hours. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR, even with passing snow
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Thursday)...

One major storm system will exit tonight, but another will bring
widespread impacts of heavy precipitation and strong winds to the
Gulf and Southcentral Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This
will likely impact travel conditions along area roadways leading
into Thanksgiving.

The deep low over the Gulf this afternoon will exit eastward
tonight, with any remaining precipitation along the Gulf coast
rapidly coming to an end early this evening. Arctic air diving
southward behind the low will cause strong winds to linger,
especially through bays and passes along the Gulf coast, Kodiak
Island, and Prince William Sound. Winds will gradually diminish
late tonight through Tuesday as a ridge builds overhead.

With very progressive upper level flow, a high amplitude trough
and surface frontal system from the Bering Sea will follow
quickly, bringing gale force winds and rain to Kodiak and the
western Gulf beginning Tuesday evening. A potent short-wave
will then exit the base of the trough and drive northward to
Southcentral Wednesday afternoon. This will help initiate
formation of a triple point low in the vicinity of southern Cook
Inlet early Wednesday morning. While there is some uncertainty in
the ultimate track of this low, right now it looks like it will
track right up Cook Inlet and pass west of Anchorage. For now,
have issued a High Wind Watch for wind gusts up to 80 mph for west
Turnagain Arm and higher elevations of Anchorage on Wednesday
(including the upper Hillside). For lower elevations, will hold
off on brining in really strong winds until have more confidence
in the track of the triple point low - but there is definitely
potential for 60 mph winds to reach lower elevations near the
mountains.

Meanwhile, as the front approaches the north Gulf coast, expect
formation of a barrier jet, with storm force winds. Some of these
stronger winds will continue through Prince William Sound, Passage
Canal, and into Portage Valley and east Turnagain Arm. The
Matanuska Valley can also expect strong easterly winds both ahead
of the low and then with arrival of the front on Wednesday
afternoon. As for precipitation, the short-wave combined with
upslope flow will produce heavy precipitation along the coast,
most notably for the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Warmer air aloft
combined with all of the wind at the surface will lead to a rapid
changeover to all rain along the Gulf coast and eastern Kenai
Peninsula, with snow levels rising to around 1000 feet.

Expect downslope drying initially for much of the western Kenai
on up to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Based on the strength
of the short-wave can't completely rule out some sprinkles or
flurries in the lee of the mountains. As the low and front
continue northward late Wednesday afternoon through evening,
winds will diminish and the downslope hole will fill in. Based on
all the warming induced by the chinook winds, precipitation will
likely fall as rain or a rain/snow mix. However, colder air aloft
will quickly move in behind the low and front and should change
precipitation to all snow sometime Wednesday evening. It then
looks favorable for some snow accumulation from Anchorage to the
Mat-Su Wednesday night.

This storm will exit by Thanksgiving day, though another weaker
upper trough will follow close behind. This will lead to another
chance of precipitation, though anything that falls should be
fairly light and primarily in the form of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The system that impacted Bristol Bay and the AKPEN this morning is
quickly moving east and a shortwave ridge is now present over
Southwest AK. This brief break in the weather will give way to a
powerful front that will approaching Southwest Alaska tonight and
into tomorrow. This front will bring warming temperatures with it,
due to strong flow out of the South. This will shift the
precipitation type through tomorrow. During the transition
tonight, freezing rain mixed with snow is possible from Bethel to
Dillingham. Greatest chances are near Bethel, as this is where
the highest likelihood of precipitation will be. Due to the track
of the front, precipitation chances are lower around Dillingham.
Still, icy conditions can be expected tomorrow along coastal
Southwest AK. Windy conditions will accompany this front along the
coast as well.

This front will push inland tomorrow where temperatures won't
warm as much. This means snow for interior areas of Southwest AK.
Right now highest amounts are around the Kuskokwim Valley.
However, this is one area of the forecast that will need some
adjustment the next couple of days, so more updates coming on
snowfall totals. This system will exit late Wednesday and
Southwest Alaska should quiet for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong front extending from a complex low near coastal Siberia
is working its way through the Western and Central Aleutians/Bering.
We have been watching this for a couple of days and model data
indicated solid storm force winds. However, now that it has
arrived and we have observations to sample, this front is stronger than
initially indicated by models. Hurricane Force gusts will be
present with this system as it moves east, so we updated the
forecast to reflect this. We also issued high wind warnings for
the Central Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians and the Pribilofs due to
Hurricane Force gusts in all of those areas. Please see the
warning statements for details on strength and timing. This front
will finally lose steam as it enters the Eastern Bering tomorrow
afternoon, but will still be of gale force strength. It will bring
rain and high seas with it, so be sure and check the marine
forecast if need be. The strong southerly winds will increase
temperatures as well. Behind the front winds will rapidly shift to
the west-northwest, ushering in cooler air again. General
westerly flow will then be present for the next few days and the
Bering will quiet some.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Fair confidence with overall pattern but much uncertainty remains
in the details during the 3-5 day timeframe. Thursday night and
Friday morning a Gale force may clip the southern Gulf. The low
will weaken and move into either the northeastern or eastern Gulf
Friday morning. However, there is low confidence on the track and
strength. Friday night a gale force front moves into the Gulf, and
there is a chance for pockets of storm force winds but low
confidence on strength and higher confidence with track. A gale
force low will move in behind the front sometime late Saturday,
however very low confidence on timing and track.

Bering Sea:

Good confidence as a weak front with small crafts moves across
the eastern Bering Thursday morning and moves into Southwest
Alaska by Thursday afternoon. Another low enters the western
Aleutians Thursday afternoon with high end Storms mainly across
the Pacific side of Aleutians. This low will move near the
Aleutians through the south Bering on Friday and move east into
the Gulf sometime on Saturday. Fair confidence on track, but
lower confidence on strength of low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Friday through Monday)...

Progressive flow will continue to dominate the long term with a
series of fronts and lows moving across the Aleutians and Bering
into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. These systems may bring
chances of accumulating snow. Good confidence on the overall
pattern, but lower confidence on details of the track and
strength of the systems.

A weak low is expected to move across the Gulf Friday with light
rain and snow mainly near the coast and coastal mountains, but
minimal impacts. But uncertainty still remains with the strength
and track of this low.

A strong low will move across the southern Bering near the
Aleutians on Friday and with an accompanying front moving south
of the Aleutians. This will produce high end storm force winds
mainly on the Pacific side of the Aleutians. Late Friday into
Saturday Southwest Alaska may receive some accumulating snow on
north side of this low in the deformation zone. Fair confidence
with this system through early Saturday, however lower confidence
as we head into Saturday as models vary a bit with track of low.

This low and frontal system will track into the Gulf late Friday
and Saturday with at least Gale force winds along front and
possibly pockets of storms but low confidence at this point. There
is a chance of heavier rain and snow from Kodiak Island towards
the Kenai and Prince William Sound. Snow may move into parts of
Southcentral late Saturday into Sunday. However, a lot of
uncertainty Saturday and Sunday with the evolution of this system
progressing across the Gulf.

Yet another strong low tracks near the Aleutians Sunday and
Monday still a bit of spread among the models, but relatively good
agreement considering its 6 days out. Most models show storm
force winds, however the EC is a bit weaker at this point. The
front associated with this low will track into the Gulf on Monday
bringing winds, rain, and snow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185 187 195.
		 High Wind Watch 101.
MARINE...Gale 120 130 131 136-138 160 178 185.
		 Storm 132 150 155 165-177 179-181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC/KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...RC