Storm Warning 172, NWS Anchorage, AK

169 
FZAK51 PAFC 211259
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220145-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 974 mb low 90 nm north of Kodiak City this
morning will move inland Sunday morning. A 957 mb low will move 120 
nm south of Kodiak City Monday morning.

$$

PKZ119-220145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 55 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220145-
Resurrection Bay-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming N wind less than 10 kt.
Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220145-
Prince William Sound-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220145-
Port Valdez-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220145-
Valdez Narrows-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220145-
Valdez Arm-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt...except SE near the Sound in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt...except SE near the Sound in the evening. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220145-
Passage Canal-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 55 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220145-
Barren Islands East-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 55 kt early becoming S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220145-
Chiniak Bay-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft 
subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220145-
Marmot Bay-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220145-
Shelikof Strait-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
23 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-220145-
Kachemak Bay-
359 AM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

919 
FZAK51 PAFC 220059
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221400-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 mb low near Homer moves inland and dissipates Sat night. A 
front enters the southwest Gulf Sun afternoon. The associated low
moves to 50 nm south of Sitkinak at 958 mb by Mon morning and 
then moves to 200 nm south of Middleton Island at 962 mb by Mon 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-221400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...E wind 60 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221400-
Resurrection Bay-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt in the evening diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221400-
Prince William Sound-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221400-
Port Valdez-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221400-
Valdez Narrows-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221400-
Valdez Arm-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221400-
Passage Canal-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 
11 ft building to 22 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221400-
Barren Islands East-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft building to 23 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
20 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221400-
Chiniak Bay-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221400-
Marmot Bay-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221400-
Shelikof Strait-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the evening. Seas 8 ft.
Snow showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221400-
Kachemak Bay-
359 PM AKST Sat Nov 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the early evening then
diminishing to 15 kt toward morning. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft 
during the evening. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming E wind 10 kt late morning. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft by afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large area of low pressure in the eastern Bering Sea is slowly
moving northwestward. An occluded front that wraps around the low
center is moving northward. A triple point low is developing along
a negatively-tilted trough south of Cold Bay and is moving
northeastward while strengthening. An occluded front northeast of
this developing triple point low continues to move northeastward
ahead of the low center. A large upper level ridge of high
pressure extends from the Arctic Ocean to the Alaska Range. The
jetstream currently remains south of 50N west of 155W. The jet
then splits with the southern portion extending eastward to over
British Columbia and the northern portion extending northwestward
to over eastern Siberia and the Chukchi Sea.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows areas of light snow
along the coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta as well as light
snow showers moving northwestward across the northern Gulf of
Alaska. Observations show a southeasterly Turnagain wind around 20
mph with downinlet-flow, thus these winds are not entering the
Anchorage Bowl. A major temperature contrast exists along the
Anchorage Bowl with 10sF and light winds across lower elevations
while temperatures are in the upper 20sF to low 30sF with
southeasterly winds around 10 mph.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast confidence remains below average as large model
inconsistencies exist with the placement and intensity of the
developing triple point low. This is primarily due to the uncommon
aforementioned jetstream pattern as models are having trouble
resolving it.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Ceilings and visibility will remain VFR. Light and variable
winds will persist at the surface, however there will be stronger
southeasterly winds aloft (130 degrees at 35 kts) starting at 21z.
Due to those stronger winds aloft, low-level windshear is
expected. Winds aloft will then weaken after 21st/10z and thus
chances for low-level windshear will significantly decrease at
that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday)...

A front extending from a mature area of low pressure in the
eastern Bering will spread wind and rain northward across the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island, with a wintry mix reaching western
Prince William Sound by this afternoon.

Tonight into Saturday morning, models indicate a new triple point
low forming along this front near or just east of Kodiak Island,
with the GFS being the most aggressive with its development. As
this low deepens, storm force winds are expected to develop from
the Barren Islands into portions of the Western Gulf, with periods
of gusty winds and plentiful rainfall expected for Kodiak Island.
Its front will push towards the northern Gulf Coast with a storm
force barrier jet expected ahead of it. Late Saturday the low
weakens as the front moves ashore causing winds to rapidly
decrease below gale force across the Northern Gulf.

Additionally, accumulating snow is expected for portions of the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound,
including Turnagain Pass especially tonight into early Saturday.
The accumulating snowfall shifts towards eastern Prince William
Sound Saturday afternoon.

For the Anchorage area, strong easterly/downslope flow should
prevent much in the way of precipitation today through early
Saturday, but a few snow showers will be possible later on
Saturday. An increase in winds for the Turnagain Arm and Matanuska
Valley is also expected tonight into Saturday morning before
diminishing Saturday night as the low weakens.

This dissipating surface low will meander northward up the Cook
Inlet on Sunday bringing some slightly better snow shower chances
to Anchorage. Also on Sunday, another storm system looks to lift
out of the North Pacific bringing another round of rain/wind to
the AKPEN and Kodiak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong front can be seen on satellite and radar this morning
extending from Hooper Bay to Pilot Point. Mostly snow is expected
along the front as it moves east into the interior through
Saturday. The exception to this should be from Pilot Point
northeast to Iliamna where rain is likely Friday, transitioning
to a rain/snow mix Friday night and then snow on Saturday. Coastal
areas from Dillingham to Nunivak Island may also see a rain/snow
mix through Saturday due to warmer air aloft and warmer surface
temperatures near the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

One last day of strong winds is expected Friday over the eastern
Bering as an occluded low continues to make its way north. The
strongest winds should be to the south of the low center and near
the coastline along the occluded front. Over the central and
western Bering, cold air advection may allow for snow showers
through Saturday. By late Saturday night the next system is
expected to approach the central Aleutians. There is some model
discrepancy in the exact track of the low which will dictate the
type and intensity of precipitation. Stay tuned for more details.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A lot of uncertainty remains during the 3-5 day timeframe. There
is moderate confidence a front associated with a strong low enters
the western Gulf Sunday afternoon. There is potential for storm
force winds over the Gulf waters beginning Sunday night and
lasting through Tuesday as the low tracks eastward into the Gulf.
There is still considerable uncertainty with the track and
strength of this low. Widespread gales are likely during this
time, however will need to continue to assess regarding the timing
and location of storm force winds.

Bering Sea:

Gale force winds are likely over the northern Bering waters
Sunday. There is potential for a storm force low to enter the
western Bering Sunday night. This low will spread gale force winds
across the central and eastern Bering through Tuesday. Model
solutions continue to struggle with strength and timing, however
there is high confidence in an active weather pattern over the
Bering through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Monday through
Thursday)...

Beginning Monday, an upper level ridge over the central Bering is
flanked by two upper level lows - one over the Kamchatka
Peninsula and the other centered over the Gulf. As the Kamchatka
low moves eastward Monday into Tuesday, a more amplified pattern
will develop. Strong northwesterly flow is still possible over the
Alaska Peninsula late Monday into Tuesday as the pressure gradient
strengthens considerably. Meanwhile, ample cold air filling in on
the backside of the Kamchatka low will enhance winds across the
western Bering Tuesday. Model solutions (GFS/EC) suggest that a
second low develops over the central Aleutians late Tuesday into
Wednesday and lifts northward over the Bristol Bay area. As we
typically see with this type of pattern, there is potential for a
triple point low to form somewhere in the vicinity of Kodiak
Island late Wednesday. Depending on the track of this triple
point low, the middle of next week may present a more active
weather pattern across Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 130 131 150 160 180 351.
Gale Warning 125 132 136 137 138 139 140 165 170 171 173 179
181 182 185 352 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO