Storm Warning 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

172 
FZAK51 PAFC 091236
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-100115-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low 40 nm S of Cape Suckling moves into the eastern Gulf
Mon afternoon. A front approaches the Western Gulf Tue afternoon 
and moves into the northern Gulf Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ119-100115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt except SE wind 20 kt near the coast. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-100115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-100115-
Resurrection Bay-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-100115-
Prince William Sound-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-100115-
Port Valdez-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt near Valdez in the morning. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-100115-
Valdez Narrows-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-100115-
Valdez Arm-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-100115-
Passage Canal-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
50 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 
ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-100115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-100115-
Barren Islands East-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-100115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-100115-
Chiniak Bay-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-100115-
Marmot Bay-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-100115-
Shelikof Strait-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-100115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3
ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-100115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-100115-
Kachemak Bay-
336 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A negatively tilted upper level trough shows up well on satellite
extending from Southwest Alaska through the AKPEN. A minor
shortwave is moving across the southern Bering moving towards the
eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. A surface low has moved inland near
Dillingham with the front extending east towards the southern
Kenai Peninsula. Radar is showing a wide swath of precipitation
from Prince William Sound and west towards Anchorage and Kenai
area and across most of Southwest Alaska. Temperatures continue to
climb all over Southcentral with the upper 20s and 30s across
Anchorage and the MAT valley, and 30s across northern Kenai and
40s for the southern part of the Kenai. Temperatures across the
Copper River Basin have warmed to upper teens to 30s from Gulkana
southward. Most coastal locations are above freezing except
Valdez which is holding in the upper 20s. While Southwest Alaska
is in the low 30s across the Kuskokwim Delta and upper 30s to 40s
across the Bristol Bay region. Snow is occurring from just north
of Kenai up into Anchorage and the MAT- SU valleys, with a few
pockets of rain or mix where temperatures have gone above
freezing. Most coastal locations are rain except for Valdez which
is still reporting snow. Snow is also reported across the
Kuskokwim Delta and rain across the Bristol Bay area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are still in good agreement with the low moving into
southwestern Alaska with a developing triple point low in the
Shelikof Strait this morning. With this warmer track much of the
snow will change over to rain today as the warm air pushes north
into the Anchorage and MAT Valley.

Models remain in good agreement with another low moving through
the western to northern part of the Bering Sea Sunday through
Monday night. The next complex low that approaches the southern
Bering Sea by Tuesday is seeing considerable spread in model track
and strength which is causing increased uncertainty for the
Aleutians through southwest mainland Alaska for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Transition from snow to rain is still expected this morning
with all rain likely at the terminal by the afternoon.
IFR ceilings with Intermittent IFR visibilities could continue
until the changeover occurs, after which expect visibility to
quickly become MVFR or better in the rain with ceilings remaining
IFR to MVFR. Additionally, winds will pick up from the south out
of the Turnagain Arm around the time of precip transition with
gusts up to 20 kts possible until the early evening when winds
decrease and become more westerly through Monday morning.

For this evening into early tonight, a few snow showers are
possible as colder air advects in from the west with occasional
IFR conditions not out of the question during any brief periods
of snow. Any snow showers will end late tonight, and ceilings
should lift to VFR as colder, drier air advects in from the west
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday Night)...

So far the storm is on track as forecasted. The snow changed over
to rain overnight along the Kenai Peninsula, and also changed over
in Palmer. A few reports of rain mixing in across portions of
Anchorage have also come in. The rain/snow line will continue
moving north and west across Anchorage and the rest of the Mat
Valley today, such that most everywhere should be all rain around
midday. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Susitna
Valley from Talkeetna north and west, with up to a foot and a half
of additional snow, mainly along the Alaska Range expected. The
Winter Weather Advisory for the Copper River Basin north of
Glennallen also remains in effect, with over a foot of snow
expected in the Paxson area and along the Denali Highway.
Temperatures have rapidly risen on strong southeasterly winds in
Glennallen, resulting in rain mixing in with the snow there, so
accumulations from Glennallen south and east will be very light,
if there are any at all. On the wind front, the High Wind Warning
verified on the Hillside this morning with gusts up to 90 mph
reported. Fortunately, those levels of gusts were relatively
isolated, with the average peak gust on the Hillside and Turnagain
Arm holding in the 60 to 65 mph range. As the center of the low
causing all of this wintry and windy weather moves into Prince
William Sound later this morning, that will cause the winds
through Turnagain Arm to rapidly diminish, then flip to a westerly
or northwesterly direction tonight.

After the sun sets tonight and the low begins to drift eastward
across Prince William Sound and into the northern Gulf, somewhat
cooler air will begin to move back into the Cook Inlet region.
This should allow any remaining precipitation to change back over
to snow. If any snow occurs at all, it will be brief in duration
and not last very long for most low elevation areas. However, with
northwesterly flow causing upslope along the Hillside, snow
showers will persist through midnight, which could result in
several inches of accumulation before ending. See the Special
Weather Statement for more details.

As an upper level wave moves across the area on Monday, the upper
level flow will enhance the strong outflow winds in Whittier and
Thompson Pass behind the departing low. Gusts to 60 mph are
possible in Whittier. For Thompson Pass, winds of similar
magnitude are expected out of the north starting late Sunday night
and continuing through the day on Monday. The snow falling now
through the Pass is falling on southeasterly winds. When the winds
flip to northerly on Monday, it is likely much of that snow will
redrift back over the Richardson Highway, causing hazardous travel
conditions. Elsewhere, much quieter conditions are expected for
the rest of Southcentral with some sunshine expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The much anticipated low is moving ashore into Southwest Alaska,
with the low center now on land northeast of Bristol Bay. Rain
has been falling in coastal areas, though coastal Southwest Alaska
in now on the backside of the low. Winds have switched to the
Northwest in the Kuskokwim Valley and cooled temperatures, with
rain switching to snow at Bethel overnight. This trend will
continue, however with most precipitation now inland, coastal
areas will not see much accumulation. Higher snowfall totals are
still expected inland and in the AK Range, where upslope flow will
help enhance snowfall.

Some brief clearing will occur overnight with a short wave ridge
moving in. However, low level cloud cover is still expected along
the coast with moist, on-shore flow continuing. Some fog may be
possible as well with recent precipitation falling.

Further analysis was done on the next low in regards to coastal
flooding. While its a bit early to completely rule it out, as of
now there will not be a fetch of winds strong enough and for long
enough duration to be of much concern. The storm just making
landfall looked more favorable for coastal flooding and did not
cause any impacts, so this is factored into reasoning as well. We
will certainly keep an eye on this situation though. While the
concern is low at this time, do stay tuned as a precaution.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The large low pressure system that has been progressing through
the Bering is currently moving ashore in Bristol Bay. Behind this
low in the Eastern Bering Sea are gale force winds. In the Central
Bering, there is a brief break in the weather with a short wave
ridge moving through. The next low in the series of lows is
already entering the Western Aleutians. It will take a
northwesterly track through the Central Bering, bringing largely
gale force winds, with a few areas of storm force winds. A third
low moves in Tuesday, keeping the pattern active. Although the
pattern is active, none of these lows are very powerful or will
stick around long enough to create any sustained impacts.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A frontal system from the North Pacific will usher gales
southeast of Kodiak and offshore starting Tuesday night. As this
front moves east-northeast, the gales will be following closely
too along the frontal axis and west of the frontal boundary across
the Gulf through Wednesday morning. A long period fetch from
south of the Aleutians will approach the southwestern Gulf by late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will generate
hazardous wave heights peaking to near 27 ft late Wednesday night.
Wave heights near the frontal boundary are expected to remain
near 12 to 15 ft with higher sets.

Bering Sea:

A couple of lows connected to a frontal boundary from the
Northwest Pacific will bring gales and storm force winds
across the Aleutians, central and eastern Bering starting
Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. One of the lows will
break away and trek eastward toward Bristol Bay on Wednesday
morning. Meanwhile, a parent low linked to the frontal zone
moves northward then curves south of Saint Lawrence Island before
descending southward Friday night. Dangerous wave heights between
25 to 35 feet with potentially higher sets will stay south of the
Aleutians and the central Bering through at least Wednesday
afternoon. Gales from the low over the eastern Bering
will gradually wane by Thursday night to small craft conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Synoptically, a broad longwave trough will exist from the
Kamchatka Peninsula to the west coast of Alaska with ridging over
the Gulf and Alaska mainland. The dominate feature to watch in the
first half of the forecast period is a negatively tilted trough
over the AKPEN on Wednesday. Given the broad southerly flow and
tropical moisture feed within the warm conveyor belt of the
system, warm temperatures and rain are expected over southern
Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow is likely over Southwest
Alaska at elevations above approximately 3000 feet. For
Southcentral the rain/snow line will be a difficult forecast once
again do to when, where, and if a triple point low sets up in the
northern Gulf along the warm front. However, at this time lower
elevations along the Gulf coast will likely be rain due to little
cold air in place as the front moves in.

Over the Bering, strong cold air advection is expected out of
eastern Russia, which will be reinforced by a nearly stationary
low over the Bering Strait. Most models now show gale to storm
force winds over the central Aleutian Chain on Wednesday. On
Thursday the main shortwave trough mentioned earlier is expected
to move into the eastern Gulf, which should allow for clearer and
colder conditions over the southern mainland through Saturday.
Over the AKPEN, Bering, and Aleutian Chain, strong west to
northwest winds and rain are expected through Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB/CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
254 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HEAVY SNOW       OFF MILE 6 PETERSVILLE  62.32N 150.23W
11/08/2020  E15.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            13.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SNOWING HEAVILY. 31F.

0905 AM     HEAVY SNOW       25 WSW WILLOW           61.60N 150.76W
11/08/2020  M17.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 230PM 11/7. 28F NW 5 MPH.

0630 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 MILES ESE OF TALKEETN 62.14N 150.03W
11/08/2020  M10.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCHES STORM TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     SNOW             4 N SUTTON              61.78N 148.87W
11/08/2020  M14.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL SNOWING, TEMP 31.

0213 PM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.55W
11/08/2020  M1.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW CHANGED TO RAIN, 32 DEGREES.

0903 AM     SNOW             DEBARR AND BONIFACE     61.21N 149.78W
11/08/2020  M1.7 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1.7 INCHES IN LAST 24 HRS. CHANGED TO
            FREEZING RAIN.

0720 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.55W
11/08/2020  M2.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0334 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST POTTER HILL             61.08N 149.78W
11/08/2020  E51 MPH          ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&