Storm Warning 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

423 
FZAK51 PAFC 021259
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030145-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 mb low at 80 nm west of Yakutat weakens to 995 mb and remains 
stationary through this evening. Another 995 mb low forms near 80 nm 
southwest of Yakutat Tue morning and strengthens to 991 mb by Wed 
morning, likewise remaining stationary. 

$$

PKZ119-030145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt with blowing dust out of the 
Copper River Delta. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 45 kt with blowing dust out of the
Copper River Delta. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 45 kt with blowing dust out of the
Copper River Delta. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030145-
Resurrection Bay-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030145-
Prince William Sound-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030145-
Port Valdez-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt early. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030145-
Valdez Narrows-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030145-
Valdez Arm-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas
building to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030145-
Passage Canal-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030145-
Barren Islands East-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt except NW 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030145-
Chiniak Bay-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030145-
Marmot Bay-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030145-
Shelikof Strait-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030145-
Kachemak Bay-
359 AM AKST Mon Nov 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKST Sun Nov 1 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A deep, positively tilted upper trough continues to bring very
cold air and gusty northerly gap winds across Southern Alaska.
The strongest of these can currently be found near Seward,
Whittier and Valdez. Other locations are expected to increase as
the trough becomes cut off and forms a deeper closed low. The
aforementioned strong northerly flow is inhibiting fog
development over Southcentral, however weaker winds and low
dewpoint depressions below 1000' is leading to low status across
the interior Kuskokwim Delta and Middle Kuskokwim Valley. There is
likewise a potent snow squall extending from southern Cook Inlet
to just east of Kodiak Island. This should remain offshore.

The only notable surface feature is a ~990 mb low tracking
eastward on the Pacific side of the western Aleutians. Its
associated front is bringing rain and gusty southeasterly winds
generally west of Adak. Zonal flow dominates the remainder of the
Bering/Aleutians, with presently quiet conditions and the usual
low marine stratus persisting.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic models remain in good near-term agreement. Per usual, the
high-res models are preferred for many of the expected strong
northerly gap wind areas tonight through Monday. There is slight
disagreement regarding the placement of a low moving near the
Panhandle and how elongated it will be, however the effects on its
west side are well-agreed upon, namely northerly gales developing
tonight over much of Cook Inlet. Agreement deteriorates with the
formation of a second low in the northern Gulf on Monday morning.
At this time a NAM/RGEM/ECMWF leaned solution is preferred as the
GFS is noticeably farther south, not even matching with its own
ensemble. The overall circulation will persist in the Gulf into
Tuesday, thus the gusty northerly outflow winds will continue.
Temperatures will remain well below average across much of the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds will
develop this afternoon, potentially gusting to 30 kts by this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Today
through Tuesday)...

A strong polar shortwave is moving through Southcentral today.
This wave will cut off and stall over Prince William Sound Monday
into Tuesday.

The combination of the strong upper support from the approaching
shortwave, a very cold airmass parked across the Copper River
Basin, and an increasing surface pressure gradient due to a
deepening surface low in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska will
increase the gap winds especially for this evening into early
Monday. Gusts up to 80 mph are likely for Thompson Pass, and we
have upgraded our High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning. Later
on Monday, the surface low in the eastern Gulf of Alaska moves
interior and weakens, causing the pressure gradient to ease a bit
which should cause wind gusts to slightly decrease. Early Tuesday,
models are indicating the development of another, weaker surface
low in the northern Gulf somewhere between Cordova and Yakutat,
and the track/intensity of this low will determine how strong the
gap winds will remain for late Monday into Tuesday. In addition to
the wind, a low forming near the Gulf coast may bring in some
snow showers along with it, and if that were to occur, blowing
snow could become a concern. Confidence in this period is low due
to poor model agreement on the positioning/intensity of this newly
developing northern Gulf low.

In addition to Thompson Pass, very gusty winds are expected across
the Matanuska Valley this evening into tomorrow as the cold
airmass and high pressure over the Copper River Basin sends wind
down the Glen Highway. We have issued a High Wind Watch to
account for this. Gusty winds are also likely to generate blowing
dust. Given the very cold airmass in place, areas seeing these
gusty winds will also see wind chills falling below zero.

For the Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak, a piece of energy
rounding the base of the upper low should help bring a period of
gusty northerly winds from late today through Monday, with some
storm force northerly wind gusts possible in the Cook Inlet
tonight.

Finally, the Anchorage Bowl will see winds pick up this
afternoon, with some gusts over 30 mph looking likely by later
tonight into early Monday. These gusty winds should then gradually
subside Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2): Sunday and
Monday...

The temperatures at 850 mb range from -12C to -20C over Southwest
Alaska at the onset of the forecast period. This pool of cold air
resides over the region the next 48 hrs. The axis of the arctic
trough is positive-tilt and spans from Healy to Lime Village to
Goodnews Bay. The models show a secondary weak shortwave behind
the main trough axis and the potential for pockets of light snow
or flurries is there for today and Monday. Over Bristol Bay,
moderate to fresh northerly winds combined with the frigid
temperatures will be conducive to light freezing spray for K-Bay,
Bristol Bay and areas south of the AKPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2): Sunday
and Monday...

Again gale force winds have been detected by ASCAT (Advanced
Scatterometer) data with the low south of Attu Island. This system
has a back-bent occlusion on the latest satellite imagery. The
expectation is that the surface low will stay south of the chain.
The pressure gradient will be enhanced with this system and gusty
winds will continue to materialize. As the low moves east-
southeast the wind direction will re-orient. Additionally, this
system has modified tropical air entrained in it. The Western and
Central Aleutians can anticipate precipitation today and tomorrow.
Initially today expect rain but then possibly a rain/snow mix.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday)...

A reinforcing shot of cold air will dive southward across western
Alaska Tuesday, then across the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Gale force winds are likely across the Southwest Alaska
marine zones, while gusts on the south side of the Alaska
Peninsula could reach storm force. Some of these stronger winds
will shift into the Gulf on Wednesday, then slowly diminish
Wednesday night through Thursday.

Meanwhile, a deep low will track across the Kamchatka Peninsula,
pushing a strong front eastward across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians Tuesday through Wednesday and reaching the Southwest
Alaska coast on Thursday. The forecast largely reflects gale force
winds with this front. However, it is looking more and more like
there will be some storm force winds as the front crosses the
western to central Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Friday)...

The long term forecast begins midweek with a persistent upper-
level, long-wave trough over the state with an upper-level ridge
cresting over the far western Bering and Aleutians. At the
surface, this translates to a strong ridge of high pressure
extending across interior Alaska and a surface trough stretched
out over the northern Gulf. This pattern has resulted in generally
clear skies and frigid temperatures due to the light northerly
flow ushering in arctic air and deepening the column of cold air
over much of the Southern Mainland. This has been the dominant
weather feature over the past couple of days and will remain the
trend into the latter half of next week. By Wednesday, a shortwave
diving south over the eastern Bering will track over the AKPEN,
resulting in an increase in snow showers from coastal Southwest
Alaska to the eastern Aleutians. A surface low is also expected to
spin up near Kodiak Island which will help enhance both the
thermal and pressure gradients, leading to an increase in
northerly gap winds along the AKPEN. This feature will slide
quickly to the south, entering the far southern Gulf by Wednesday
evening. However, the ridge over the interior will strengthen,
leading to the potential for increased outflow winds along the
Southcentral coast through late Thursday.

Guidance, however, is suggesting a pattern change may be in store
following the passage of the aforementioned shortwave.
Specifically, the long wave pattern looks to amplify and progress
eastward by the weekend as a deepening upper-level trough digs
over west Asia and shifts the upper-level ridge over the Aleutians
and trough over Mainland Alaska east. At the surface, this shift
will result in the surface ridge over the Aleutians sliding south
and east, allowing a deep low to spin up off of Kamchatka and lift
a front over the Bering toward Southwest Alaska by late Thu. This
solution would also increase the southwesterly flow and introduce
an increased chance for mixed precipitation along the Southwest
coast with snow over the interior. Guidance then suggests that
this front, or remnants of it, may attempt to work into
Southcentral by the end of the week as the ridge once over the
Aleutians moves to the Gulf and the ridge over the interior
weakens and moves farther east over the Yukon and Northwest
Territories. There is a bit of disagreement within the models,
however. First, the EC is not as amplified as the GFS and weakens
the Kamchatka low and associated front more quickly, with the
front breaking apart before it has a chance to move inland.
Second, as the ridge moves into the Gulf, there are strength and
timing discrepancies with the potential of another storm system
spinning up and moving toward the AKPEN for early next week.
Nonetheless, the shift in the pattern looks to bring a more
southerly flow, warmer temperatures, and increased chances for
mixed precipitation to Southwest Alaska by the end of the weekend.
As for Southcentral, there is also a chance for increased cloud
cover and precipitation by the end of next weekend. However, there
is much less confidence on this as any storm system would have to
break down the cold ridge currently in place. Models are notorious
for trying to break these stagnant ridges down too quickly.
Nevertheless, the shift in the pattern would result in a decrease
in the northerly flow and a slow warm up in temperatures both
aloft and at the surface across Southcentral by the end of next
weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 120 121 125 127-132 136 139 140 150 174 176
                       177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BG/MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB/MK/TM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
143 PM AKST Sun Nov 1 2020

AKZ121-125-030300-
Western Kenai Peninsula-Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, Cooper Landing,
Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, and Moose Pass
143 PM AKST Sun Nov 1 2020

...SNOW GLACIER DAMMED LATE RELEASING...

Based on rising river levels and satellite observations we believe
the Snow Glacier Dammed Lake has begun to release.  Water levels on
the river just upstream of Kenai Lake have risen 3 feet over the
last week.

Typically the Snow glacier dammed lake releases every other year,
with the last release in 2019 a release this fall is unexpected.

Current water level on the Snow River is 9.7 feet. Water levels are
expected to continue to rise an additional 2-3 feet
on the Snow River and crest on Tuesday.  At this time we do not expect
water levels to reach flood stage, but there is always uncertainty
with glacial dammed lake releases. Residents near the Snow River and
living around Kenai Lake should monitor local conditions and prepare
for rising water levels.

The current water level on the Kenai River at Cooper Landing is 8.1 feet.
Water levels on Kenai Lake and the Upper Kenai River have just
started to rise and are expected to continue to rise another 1 to
3 feet through the middle of the week. Water levels on the Lower
Kenai River will begin to rise on Tuesday and crest about 1-2
higher towards the end of the week.

This statement will be updated daily or if conditions warrant.