Storm Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

698 
FZAK62 PAFC 190032
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191415-
332 PM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low at 57N 166W moves to 58N 162W Wed night at 990 mb 
and then moves inland. A 978 mb low at 52N 175W Wed night moves to
55N 170W at 965 mb Thu afternoon and then moves to 59N 171W at 
974 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 PM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 PM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 PM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 PM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

420 
FZAK62 PAFC 191243
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200145-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 53N 174W moves to 56N 170W at 966 mb Thu
afternoon. This low continues to 61N 170W at 975 mb by Fri night.

$$

PKZ411-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW 30 to 50 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

189 
FZAK62 PAFC 192348
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
248 PM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201415-
248 PM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 55N 170W moves to 59N 170W at 972 mb Fri
afternoon. The low then moves to 61N 177W at 972 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
248 PM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
248 PM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
248 PM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 50 kt east of 175W. NW wind 25 kt 
elsewhere. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
248 PM AKST Thu Nov 19 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow and 
widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

314 
FZAK62 PAFC 201241
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210145-
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 58N 165W this morning will move to 61N 170W at 968
mb Saturday morning. The low then moves to 64N 179E at 973 mb
Sunday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKST Fri Nov 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The large upper-level ridge has its axis running from around
Bristol Bay through the Interior of the state today. The surface
high stretches from the Yukon Territory into the Interior of the
state with a tight pressure gradient set up over the Chugach
Mountains and St Elias Mountains along the north Gulf coast.

This pattern is producing northerly flow aloft over the Copper
River Basin and Prince William Sound areas resulting in some
enhanced outflow winds through the coastal mountains from Seward
to Whittier, Valdez and points eastward. It is also keeping low
clouds trapped in the lower elevations of the Copper River Basin.
This same effect is keeping area of fog around Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley today with light flow at the surface packing fog
along the Chugach Mountains.

A weak and dissipating front in moving over Southwest mainland
Alaska today with just enough punch left to bring a short period
of light precipitation as it moves eastward.

There is a Storm Force low over the far western Bering Sea just
east of the Kamchatka Peninsula. This low is bringing a strong
front to the western and Central Aleutians today and will
continue eastward along the chain the next few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonable agreement for the next two days and then
begin to really break down in terms of consistency. On Thursday,
they all have the idea of a strong low in southern Bering Sea that
moves northward by Friday. However, there becomes a 350 mile
difference in center positions Friday with and even bigger
difference with the development of a low from anywhere from the
Alaska Peninsula to well south of the Gulf of Alaska. Getting a
handle on this low development will likely be the biggest forecast
challenge the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The main forecast challenge will be the continued threat
of fog and/or low stratus around the airport. There is a good
chance the fog redevelops overnight, but it should dissipate again
Wednesday by late morning as increased winds in northern Knik Arm
should help mix the atmosphere better in the source region of the
fog and therefore improve conditions downstream at the airport.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Offshore flow will continue to bring clear skies and cooler
temperatures through Wednesday. Winds are expected to peak early
Tuesday morning as an upper level ridge aligns with the surface
flow. Gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible in Valdez/Thompson Pass.
These will gradually diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as a low near
the Panhandle weakens. Patchy fog remains possible tonight near
Knik Arm. The pattern will begin to shift by Thursday. A weak low
will move over Kodiak Island, bringing rain/snow through the day.
No significant accumulations are expected in Kodiak City. The
associated moisture will continue to track eastward into Friday,
likewise brining mixed precipitation to the southern Kenai
Peninsula. While model agreement degrades with time, cloud cover
is expected to build with increased southeasterly flow. As such,
temperatures will warm into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure that has been over SW AK...is shifting and eroding.
A trio of fronts will bring increasingly active weather to SW AK
through Friday. The first front has moved inland and is near
Bethel. This storm will continue to move inland but significant
accumulations are not expected. The next front will move into SW
AK Wednesday and this system looks a little more juicy and the
thermodynamics look more complicated. This system will bring a
wintry mix. The higher moisture content combined with stronger
upper level forcing will enable this front to move farther inland
past Aniak and Sleetmute. Friday another low moves into the
eastern Bering, this storm will impact SW AK. The models have not
converged on a low track. Stay tuned for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The active pattern continues for the Bering. The longwave trough
spans from the Eastern Bering to West of Kamchatka. Currently,
there is a mature low and its surface low is near Kamchatka. Cold
air will continue to get wrapped into this system and gale-storm
force winds will materialize. Expect high seas. The cold front
associated with this low will march eastward relatively quickly.
Late Wednesday/early Thursday, a vigorous shortwave will move
south of the Aleutians and spin up an new system. This low will
jump north of the chain Thursday west of Dutch Harbor and move
north and east. This will be another hardy low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A storm force low forming south of the Alaska Peninsula will bring
gale and storm force winds to the Gulf waters through Saturday.
Winds will weaken to small craft levels Saturday night weak low
pressure remains over the Gulf. There is increasing confidence a
gale force low enters the western Gulf Sunday night.

Bering Sea:

A storm force low over the Bering Friday lifts into the northern
Bering Friday night. There is potential for a second storm force
low to form south of the Alaska Peninsula Friday morning and lift
northward into the Bristol Bay region for Saturday, however there
is still uncertainty with the track and strength of this low.
Broad low pressure will remain over the Bering through the weekend
with gale force winds likely across the Bering waters through
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Two key features in the long term include a broad upper level
trough over the Bering extending along an axis from Kamchatka to
the Alaska Peninsula and an upper level ridge over the northern
AK-Yukon border. A series of lows will develop as shortwaves
embedded within the upper level trough eject northeastward toward
Southcentral. This will make for an active weather pattern for
much of the southern half of the state for the start of the
weekend. In the midlevels, a sharp baroclinic zone is positioned
south of the Aleutian Chain as a cold airmass with northerly flow
persists over the Bering waters through Saturday night. While the
initial pattern looks to be zonal, over the course of the
weekend, a more amplified pattern is likely to set up by early
next week as a ridge moves in from the west. This ridge will shift
the broad upper level trough eastward over the mainland. With a
ridge over the Bering and a trough over the mainland, the
Southwestern part of the state can expect strong north to
northwesterly outflow winds, especially over the Alaska Peninsula.
By late Monday into Tuesday, models are keying in on a strong
Kamchatka low arriving over the western Bering. This low will
ultimately force the ridge eastward as its front traverses the
Bering early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms 178 411. Gales 173-177 185 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO