Storm Warning 128, NWS Anchorage, AK

512 
FZAK62 PAFC 041249
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050215-
349 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low near 52N 160E will move to 60N 165E and strengthen 
to 960 mb Wed afternoon and then move to 65N 176E at 962 mb Thu 
afternoon. The associated weather front will be in the Western 
Bering Sea Tue night and move to Bristol Bay Thu.

$$

PKZ411-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
349 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft building to 22 to
32 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming 40 kt after midnight. Seas
24 to 32 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
349 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft building to 24 to
30 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 31 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
349 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 23 to
28 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
349 AM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

494 
FZAK62 PAFC 050029
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051400-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 957 mb low at 59N 167E moves to 66N 179E at 973 mb by Thu 
night. Its front continues across the Bering Sea reaching Bristol
Bay Thursday morning before moving inland.


$$

PKZ411-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 32 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft building to 24 to
32 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 26 to 32 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 24 to
30 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

938 
FZAK62 PAFC 051229
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060230-
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 59N 171E moves to 65N 179E at 973 mb by Thu 
night. Its front continues across the Bering Sea reaching Bristol 
Bay Thursday morning before moving inland.

$$

PKZ411-060230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 31 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 27 to 32 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

919 
FZAK62 PAFC 051554
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
654 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060600-
654 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 59N 171E moves to 65N 179E at 973 mb by Thu 
night. Its front continues across the Bering Sea reaching Bristol 
Bay Thursday morning before moving inland.

$$

PKZ411-060600-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
654 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Isolated thunderstorms. Seas 24 to 31 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060600-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
654 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Isolated thunderstorms. Seas 27 to 32 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060600-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
654 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Isolated thunderstorms. Seas 18 to 28 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060600-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
654 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

892 
FZAK62 PAFC 060010
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061330-
310 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb low at 64N 179E moves over the Chukchi Peninsula Fri
morning. A North Pacific low will strengthen to 993 mb and move 
to 55N 161W Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-061330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 12 to
16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKST Tue Nov 3 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the upper levels...a 500MB low continues to remain stationary
over Prince William Sound. This is at the center of a broad
longwave trough over Southcentral AK and the Gulf of Alaska, which
has a cold pool of air accompanying it. A ridge of high pressure
continues to exist on an axis extending from the Western Aleutians
northeast across the Bering into Southwest AK. A sharp trough
exists just north of the Bering Strait and is beginning to move
south. It is this trough that will set up Blizzard conditions in
Southwest AK later today and bring some strong cold air advection
and windy conditions to the Aleutians.

On the surface...The 500MB low in the upper levels is keeping cold
air in place on the surface. A surface high remains in place over
the mainland, with weak low pressure located in the Gulf of
Alaska. This high is associated with cold, dense air. The high
coupled with low pressure just off the coast is creating windy
conditions through gaps and passes. Out in the Bering, a surface
high exists and is centered over the Western Aleutians, with
ridges extending to the north and east. This is keeping the Bering
and Southwest AK quiet for now. The upper trough north of the
Bering Strait is reflected on as a surface low located in the
Strait extending to St. Lawrence Island. This trough has begun to
move south which will make for active weather later today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in very good agreement in the short term. All of the
major models are capturing the upcoming blizzard event in
Southwest AK. They also appear to capture the trough currently in
Russia that will drop into our forecast area later this week. They
track its progression well through the short term. One area where
models consistently underperform are wind speeds through the
Eastern Aleutians with northerly wind events. This has been
compensated for with pattern recognition and we have a good handle
on upcoming winds for that area. Therefore, we have high
confidence in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light north winds will
continue but gusts will slowly weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Today
through Thursday)...

A weak surface low in the northern Gulf will continue to bring
occasional light snow showers to eastern portions of Prince
William Sound today, tapering off tonight as the low moves east.
Also tonight, a shortwave trough will rapidly move from Bristol
Bay into the North Pacific, with a brief period of snow expected
across the southern portions of Kodiak Island as it rolls through.

With outflow winds subsiding, we are setting up for a very chilly
night tonight with low single digits expected for the Anchorage
Bowl, single digits below zero across the Mat-Su Valley, and teens
and 20s below zero in the Copper River Basin.

Wednesday evening into early Thursday, a strong northerly jet
works into the area as an upper ridge builds across Western
Alaska. The orientation of this jet will help to again enhance
outflow winds, especially for Thompson Pass. We have hoisted a
High Wind Watch to account for this. While it does not look like
an overly impressive set-up, it definitely has potential. In
addition to Thompson Pass we should see some increasingly gusty
winds for Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay and Valdez during this
period.

On Thursday a frontal system moves in from the west, with light
snow changing to light rain across Kodiak Island early. Late
Thursday into Thursday night, chances for light snow increase for
the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the Mat- Su Valley. There could
be a few inches of accumulation for the population centers by the
time the week is over.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong shortwave trough travels southeast across the Kuskokwim
Delta towards Bristol Bay today. Behind the wave, gusty
northwesterly flow and cold air advection over warmer sea surfaces
sets the stage for blizzard conditions along Kuskokwim Delta
coast today and tonight. Additionally, expect strong winds and
periods of reduced visibility.

A low pressure system currently over Russia enters the Western
Bering Wednesday morning. The associated front reaches the Southwest
Coast by Thursday afternoon, bringing a round of showers to the
region on Thursday. Warmer air will be out ahead of the front,
allowing the coastal areas to stay warm enough for rain, and keep
the snow showers further inland. Persistent southwesterly flow
with this front could produce significant onshore flow, leading to
flooding concerns for the Kuskokwim Bay and possibly Bristol Bay
Thursday afternoon. Storm track and ETSS guidance will continue to
be monitored over the next couple days as the system approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A high amplitude trough currently set up over Russia is creating
a short-lived period of ridging over the Central Bering today. By
Wednesday, the front pushes into the Western Bering, weakening as
it travels east. Storm force winds with periods of hurricane
force gusts dominate the Western and Central Bering through
Thursday morning. As the front approaches the Southwest coast
Thursday afternoon, winds diminish to widespread gales. A
widespread band of precipitation and warmer air also precedes the
front, thus, light to moderate rain showers are expected along the
Aleutian Chain Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday)...

A strong Kamchatka low will push a front across the Bering
Thursday. Southwesterly storm force winds and seas up to 30 feet
are expected across the Bering early Thursday before winds
diminish to gales late Thursday. As this Kamchatka low weakens
Friday, winds will diminish to small craft levels. Another low
arrives over the western Aleutians Saturday bringing the
potential for gale force winds.

For the Gulf, gusty northerly outflow winds are expected early
Thursday especially over the Barren Islands. Winds will shift
to southwesterly Friday for the western Gulf especially through
Shelikof Strait as a ridge strengthens over the Gulf for the
weekend. Southerly gale force winds may return to the western
Gulf waters by Saturday as a North Pacific low lifts northward
near Kodiak Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...

Two key features that have been consistent for the long term
forecast include an upper level low over the Kamchatka Peninsula
and a strong upper level ridge maintaining its hold over the Gulf
of Alaska. Active weather is expected for southern Alaska for the
start of the weekend as a North Pacific low lifts northward and
attempts to suppress the persistent Gulf ridge to the south. As
this low moves into the Bristol Bay region early Saturday, a
strong pressure gradient between the incoming low and the
persistent high will generate gusty southerly winds across the
western Gulf waters and Kodiak Island. Additionally, there is
potential for a wintry mix of precipitation for interior Bristol
Bay and the Middle Kuskokwim Valley as this low lifts northward.
Depending on the track of this low, wintry precipitation is also
possible for Southcentral Saturday and Sunday. Model solutions
continue to change with regard to where this low tracks, so
confidence remains low at this time. By Sunday, an upper level
low builds in across much of the state, ultimately displacing the
persistent upper level ridge to the south. Farther west, a strong
Kamchatka low develops late Saturday and pushes a front across
the Bering Sunday. Right now, an active weather pattern looks to
persist through the start of the next work week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 155.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 131.
MARINE...STORM: 150, 177, 178, 411-413
         GALE: 130-132, 138, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 173, 175,
               176, 180, 181, 185, 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BG/MJO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO