Storm Warning 118, NWS Anchorage, AK

998 
FZAK52 PAFC 212353
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221245-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA 
WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 160 nm southwest of Adak and a 974 mb low 235 nm
south of Shemya merge near 160 nm southwest of Adak at 974 mb Thu
afternoon, then moves to 20 nm west of Saint George at 984 mb Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. From Chirikof Island W, SW wind 15 kt. Seas
building to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. From Chirikof Island W, SW wind 15 kt. 
Seas 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight...except from Chirikof
Island SW, Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. From Chirikof
Island W, SW 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. From Shumagin Islands W, E wind 50 kt 
becoming south 20 kt after midnight. Seas 22 ft except from the 
Shumagin Islands W, seas 22 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. 
Widespread rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 40 kt
diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221245-
Bristol Bay-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, E wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221245-
Unalaska Bay-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 20
ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas building to 25 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
21 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming S. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221245-
Adak to Kiska-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221245-
Kiska to Attu-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-221245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 PM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

075 
FZAK52 PAFC 221153
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230100-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb complex low 160 nm south of Adak moves to 150 nm east of
Adak at 981 mb by Fri morning and then moves to 90 nm southwest of
St Paul at 990 mb by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-230100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt, seas 13 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE 
wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon, Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 18 ft except 11 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230100-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-230100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt except E 50 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight, seas 9 ft.
From Port Moller E, SE wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230100-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 21 ft after 
midnight. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 20 kt becoming NW wind 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230100-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230100-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 14
ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-230100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of
Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High surface pressure is over Southwest mainland Alaska with a low
in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This pattern is producing the
mostly clear skies over mainland areas with gusty winds through
channeled terrain, especially across the northern Gulf. The jet
stream is running well south of the Western Aleutians, bends
sharply around a trough located near 165W, and then increases
again as it heads south of the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern is
setting up the next low which will impact the region in the Bering
Sea. This area south of the Aleutians has a strong jet max of
around 170 kt at 250 mb. This is allowing the surface low in the
left exit region (near 47N 175E) to spin up rapidly, and that
process has already begun this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement for much of the remainder of the
week. The biggest issue at this time revolves around the progress
of the warm front into the northern Gulf later this week. The NAM
and GFS have both settled on the solution bringing some storms
into parts of the Bering Sea Wed night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance for fog Wednesday morning with clearing skies, but the
light northerly winds should help keep it at bay. There is also a
chance for some stratus to develop in Knik Arm overnight and then drift
over the airport.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Clouds continue to linger across from the Chugach Mountains east
to the Copper River Basin as an upper-level shortwave drops south
across the eastern half of the Southcentral mainland. A cold,
northerly flow has set up over the region. Gap winds are
increasing over favored coastal locations as a pressure gradient
tightens between a ridge building over the interior of Alaska and
a surface trough over the northern Gulf. These winds will peak
overnight tonight across the eastern Kenai and by tomorrow
afternoon over Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin.
Wind gusts will be enhanced overnight due to a combination of cold
air advection from the interior strengthening a thermal gradient
and a second upper-level wave moving across Southcentral.

The main forecast challenge will be overnight low temperatures as
the increased gap winds mix the air at near the surface and limit
radiational cooling. This includes locations such as Seward,
Whittier, and Valdez where gusty winds tonight and tomorrow night
should keep overnight temperatures from falling into the 20s.
Overnight lows will likely stay in the upper 20s for Palmer and
Wasilla as a Mat Valley wind sets up tonight. Elsewhere, overnight
lows, especially Wednesday night into early morning Thursday,
could be the coldest thus far this season.

A front enters the southwest Gulf late Wednesday night into
Thursday bringing rain and high elevation snow to Kodiak Island
along with southeasterly gales across the western Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tuesday
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

One last day of mostly clear skies and seasonal temperatures
across the Southwest mainland are expected for Wednesday before a
strong front moves into the region. The frontal system is entering from
the North Pacific and is expected to reach the far southern
reaches of the AKPEN Wednesday morning. The parent low is quite
weak and is expected to be around 995 mb initially. However, the
strong gradient along the front between the low and the retreating
high over the interior will create strong winds and moderate to
heavy rain for the AKPEN Wednesday and Thursday as the front moves
north. By Thursday morning, the front is expected to reach the
Bristol Bay coastline where it will slowly move inland and weaken
by Friday afternoon. Residual cold air at the time of the frontal
arrival may produce a few flakes before precipitation rapidly
transitions to rain. Strong southeasterly winds are also likely as
the front moves through. Snow, or at least a wintry mix, is
likely over the higher elevations including the Kilbuck
Mountains. Rain should be dissipating over the lower elevations of
the mainland by Friday afternoon, and the AKPEN will see another
round of rain on south facing slopes as the cold air wraps around.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tuesday
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

High pressure and calm winds will occupy the Northern Bering
Wednesday while two strong frontal systems impact the Aleutian
Chain Wednesday morning. Storm force winds along the eastern of
the two fronts are expected over the Eastern Aleutians on
Wednesday, extending into the Eastern Bering Wednesday night. The
western front is associated with the stronger of the two lows and
will bring gale force winds and rain to the Western Aleutians on
Wednesday. The two fronts will then combine Wednesday night to
then bring a broad region of gale force winds and rain to the
Bering on Thursday. By this time the two lows will have
conglomerated into one near Adak, creating a broad, strong, occluded
low. Cold air wrapping around the southern flank of the low on
Friday should bring another round of gale force winds and rain
from Dutch Harbor to the pribilofs as winds and waves slowly
subside across the region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A well developed front moves to the North Gulf Coast by Sun. The
track and development vary considerably, but widespread
southeasterly gale force winds and waves will occur across the
Gulf through Sat. The area of gale force winds then retreats to
the Barren Islands area Sat, leaving small craft winds over the
Gulf slowly diminishing over the Northern Gulf through Sun.

Bering Sea:

A strong low and front moves into the Bering through Sun. Track
and development of the system vary considerably, but overall area
coverage looks reasonable, with gale force winds and waves
wrapping around the low as it spreads over the Bering. High end
gale winds expected in Bristol Bay near the Alaska Peninsula
channeled areas for Fri. The wind-wrapped low brings a second
round of gale force winds across the Eastern Aleutians Fri and
Sat. The entire system slowly diminishes to small craft winds
through Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Tuesday)...

By Friday, a front associated with a large low across the Bering
Sea will have made its way inland on the southwest coast, across
the AKPEN and Kodiak Island. This will bring precipitation across
these areas with the front propagating into Southcentral Saturday
and Sunday. Gale force winds are expected with the low over the
Bering until it begins to dissipate on Saturday. The Anchorage
Bowl looks to remain relatively dry until Monday before drying
out again Tuesday. Precipitation will continue for the Bering, the
Southwest, higher elevations and coastal locations through
Tuesday. Precipitation should be a wintry mix at lower elevations,
but temperatures aloft should stay warm enough to not turn all
precipitation to snow. Expect snow at higher elevations through
the forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150,155,160,165,170,172,180. GALE WARNING
127,128,130,131,132,138,351,171,173-179,181,185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CK