Storm Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

741 
FZAK52 PAFC 101220
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110100-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb 120 nm east of Shemya moves to 295 nm north of Shemya Sat
morning at 950 mb then to 320 nm west of Gambell at 971 mb by Sun
morning. Its front pushes across the Aleutians and Bering into 
the Alaska Peninsula through Sat afternoon. A 1006 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 75 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 1007 mb Sat 
afternoon then to 30 nm south of Chignik at 1013 mb by Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-110100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110100-
Bristol Bay-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in 
ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas in ice 
free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt 
becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110100-
Unalaska Bay-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 29 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110100-
Adak to Kiska-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas  23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110100-
Kiska to Attu-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-110100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of
Saint Matthew Island. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray north of Saint
Matthew Island. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Freezing spray north of Saint Matthew Island in the
morning. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

506 
FZAK52 PAFC 110040
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111315-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 959 mb low 300 nm north of Attu moves to 370 nm north of Attu 
at 952 mb Sat morning then continues into the Gulf of Anadyr at 
985 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front pushes across the Bering and 
Alaska Peninsula into Western Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska 
through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. East of the 
Shumagin Islands, W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111315-
Bristol Bay-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 5 ft. Snow.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas in ice free
waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt becoming
SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111315-
Unalaska Bay-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111315-
Adak to Kiska-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111315-
Kiska to Attu-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt.
.WED...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-111315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
340 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 1040 mb high is currently anchored over the Yukon with the ridge
axis extending westward across the central part of the state. This
feature, coupled with an elongated 1010 mb trough extending across
the northern and eastern Gulf, has resulted in a tightening of the
pressure gradient across Southcentral and is producing strong
northerly outflow winds within the gaps and passes nearer the
Southcentral coast. Gale-force winds have been persistent
overnight along the Valdez waterways (narrows and arm) and across
the Copper River Delta. Gusty winds also continue for the town of
Valdez and along Thompson Pass, where the combination of 40 mph
winds and temperatures around -10F has produced wind chills of 40
below and verified the advisory in effect through the morning
hours.

Elsewhere across Southcentral, fog continues to sit along the
northern half of Cook Inlet, stretching north into Knik and
Turnagain Arms. Along the coast, where locations have either been
dealing with gusty winds or fog, overnight temperatures have
hovered on either side of 0F. Farther inland, however, it
continues to be much colder, with overnight lows ranging from -10F
for the interior Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl, to -40F for
parts of the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley.

Out west, areas of light snow are falling along an occluded front
from Bristol Bay north to Kipnuk. Ahead of the front,
temperatures remain below zero with gusty northeasterly winds
driving wind chills as low as -35F, especially over the Kuskokwim
Delta. Behind the front, it is a much different story with a warm
southeasterly flow yielding mixed precipitation and temperatures
in the mid 30s for the southern AKPEN.

For the central and western Aleutians, a double-barrel 978 mb low
is spinning north of Shemya and Amchitka. This system is producing
a wide area of gales and even a small core of storm-force winds
just outside the forecast area as seen on the most recent ASCAT
scatterometer pass. A front associated with this feature is draped
across the central Bering and is bringing low stratus and areas of
rain with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to around 40F.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance continues to be in good agreement with the placement and
evolution of the various lows and frontal features across the
forecast domain. A blend of the NAM and GFS was used to capture
the track of the low currently spinning up well south of Kodiak
Island as well as the evolution of the double-barrel low north of
the western Aleutians and its associated front along the
Southwest coast. The Hi-res models, NAMnest and HRRR, were favored
with the wind forecast across Southcentral as these were best at
resolving the smaller, mesoscale features along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog will remain the forecast challenge throughout the day
as it continues to slosh back and forth across extreme northern
Cook Inlet and Knik Arm. An increase in the northerly winds
around noon gives hope that the fog will start to scour out by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Arctic air will remain firmly in place over Southcentral, with the
deepest and coldest air over the Copper River Basin. This will
maintain gusty winds through all of the coastal mountain passes
and bays, including Thompson Pass, the Valdez coastal waters,
the Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal. Winds
there is a general downward trend in wind speeds this morning,
expect winds to restrengthen tonight through Friday in response to
s deep low tracking across the southern Gulf. These increased gap
winds along with cold temperatures will produce fairly widespread
heavy freezing spray in and around these bays and passes.

A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for Thompson Pass with
wind chills expected to drop to 50 below zero through noon on
Friday. Late Thursday into Friday morning, the Matanuska Valley
may see some gusty northeasterly winds as the pressure gradient
strengthens and cold air drains through this passage from the
Copper River Basin. This is a borderline scenario for winds due to
the presence of a steep temperature inversion. The winds will need
to erode this. If they don't, then the winds coming out of the
Matanuska River Valley will ride overtop of Palmer and Wasilla.
Thus, forecast confidence in timing and strength of the wind is
low.

A front approaching Kodiak Island will bring some light snow
today. Warmer air will likely change precipitation over to rain
along the south end of the island. A low moving up from the
Pacific will deepen as it reaches the southern Gulf this
afternoon, but the bulk of winds and precipitation with this will
remain south and east of Kodiak Island. Another front will arrive
in the western Gulf/Kodiak Island Friday night. This looks like a
fairly weak front with light precipitation. Snow could reach as
far north as the southern Kenai Peninsula, but once again expect
most of the impacts to remain over the Gulf. Thus, the cold and
dry weather will persist across Southcentral. Fog will continue
to be a forecast challenge for Anchorage as we remain cold with
light winds. With clear skies and falling temperatures over the
Copper River Basin, will have to keep an eye out for fog formation
there as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An occluded front stretched across the Southwest coast to the
Alaska Peninsula will weaken this morning. Areas near Dillingham
could see a few inches of snowfall, with snow showers tapering off
later today. The next warm front quickly makes its way over the
Alaska Peninsula by Friday morning, bringing another round of
precipitation initially falling as snow then transitioning to
rain as temperatures warm through the afternoon hours. This front
will begin to push in over Southwest Alaska Friday afternoon,
resulting in widespread snow across the region. Once again, areas
along the coast will likely see a few inches of new snow
accumulation before the front tracks eastward. Snow showers will
continue through Saturday afternoon as the front over Southwest
weakens and becomes less organized as it reaches the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Temperatures across all of Southwest Alaska will
continue with a warming trend throughout the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An area of low pressure over the western Bering this morning will
keep gusty conditions and a swath of gale force winds over the
northern Bering and also along the central Aleutians. As this
system dissipates by this afternoon, the attention quickly focuses
on a strong low, which will bring an area of storm force winds
stretching from the western and central Aleutians through the
overnight hours. The low center will continue to lift north of
Shemya through Friday morning, keeping strong winds, widespread
rain and snow showers, and high seas (35+ ft in the western
Bering) stretched across the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain
before weakening through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
A storm in the far Western Bering will bring some storm force
winds through the central and western Aleutians on Saturday. By
Sunday, these winds will have mostly weakened overall and any
storm level winds will remain in the far western Bering. Overall,
winds across the Bering sea will be from the south or southeast
through the period, reducing the risk for ice moving southward and
freezing spray. but these winds will progressively weaken through
the weekend.

Strong north to northwesterly winds will continue across the Gulf
of Alaska through Monday. These winds will be strongest in the
gaps and may reach gale force at times.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sat through Wed)...
Yesterday's long term forecast mentioned a low moving across the
Bering Sea, bringing warmer temperatures to the mainland through
the weekend. Today, the forecast models are indicating that
although the low is still forecast to move across the Bering Sea,
the high currently in place over the mainland remains strong, so
the warm up won't be as dramatic as we thought yesterday. However,
by Sunday, we do have some warmer 850 hPa temperatures moving in,
which will help moderate the cold air mass. The front that moves
across the Bering will bring some upper level clouds with it, so
that will also help moderate the temperatures at the surface.
These factors lead me to believe that the record cold temperatures
for the Copper River Basin mentioned in yesterday's discussion
are pretty unlikely. Realistically we can expect daytime highs
above 0F for most of Southcentral, with the Copper River Basin
reaching near -10F and a low of the lower -30s. West of the
Alaska Range, the warmer temperatures will have much more of an
effect, with temperatures in Southwest Alaska warming into the
mid 20s in some places. The front will also bring a chance of
snow for Southwest and the lower Kuskokwim Valley on Saturday.

After Saturday, the next low to move through skirts the Aleutians
and then progresses across the Gulf of Alaska. This is not a big
weathermaker for most of Alaska, with the main concern being
outflow winds along the coast. Folks living near northerly
oriented valleys should be prepared for a windy start to the
weekend, but these will decrease as we head into early next week.
On Tuesday and Wednesday a front moves into the western Aleutians,
but again, this has been delayed slightly from yesterday's
forecast due to the strength of the high over the eastern half of
the state. For the most part, it looks like a quiet start to next
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121.
         Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 176 177 411.
	     Gale Warning 127 130 132 183 139 150 155 165 170>175
         178>181 185.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 126>128 130 139 140
	     160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK/SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF