Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2020
Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jan 2, 2020, 10:37 AM AKST. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 2, 2020, 10:37 AM AKST (19:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 2, 2020, 3:46 PM AKST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
519 FZAK51 PAFC 021937 AAA CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 Updated zones 121 and 125 Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-030430- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A 995 mb low 25 nm southwest of Cordova moves over Prince William Sound and dissipates by Thu afternoon. A broad 999 mb low develops 30 nm southeast of Chignik Thu morning and deepens to a 990 mb complex low 80 nm southeast of Chignik Fri morning. This complex low then moves to 175 nm southeast of Sitkinak Island at 985 mb by Sat morning. $$ PKZ119-030430- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ120-030430- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight... strongest along the coast. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ121-030430- Resurrection Bay- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ125-030430- Prince William Sound- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt during the afternoon. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ126-030430- Port Valdez- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-030430- Valdez Narrows- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ128-030430- Valdez Arm- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ129-030430- Passage Canal- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-030430- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ131-030430- Barren Islands East- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt shifting to NE late. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ132-030430- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ136-030430- Chiniak Bay- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ137-030430- Marmot Bay- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-030430- Shelikof Strait- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING FRIDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-030430- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-030430- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-030430- Kachemak Bay- 1037 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TODAY...NE wind to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
1 follow-up statement
324 FZAK51 PAFC 030046 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-031330- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A weak 1001 mb low over western Prince William Sound moves inland Thu night. A broad 995 mb low 100 nm southeast of Chignik moves 130 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 987 mb Fri afternoon. This complex 987 mb low continues to 345 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 995 mb Sun afternoon. $$ PKZ119-031330- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt near the Copper River Delta after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt near the Copper River Delta. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt near the Copper River Delta. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ120-031330- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ121-031330- Resurrection Bay- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ125-031330- Prince William Sound- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-031330- Port Valdez- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-031330- Valdez Narrows- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ128-031330- Valdez Arm- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ129-031330- Passage Canal- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers. .FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-031330- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ131-031330- Barren Islands East- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Near the Barren Islands, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Near the Barren Islands, N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ132-031330- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ136-031330- Chiniak Bay- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ137-031330- Marmot Bay- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. .FRI...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-031330- Shelikof Strait- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-031330- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...GALE WARNING FRIDAY... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-031330- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-031330- Kachemak Bay- 346 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 2, 7:12 AM AKST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 7:12 AM AKST, 3 hours 25 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTION
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
712 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 493 dm upper-level low continues to sit nearly stationary over
Bristol Bay this morning. A series of shortwaves are pinwheeling
around this feature. The first is positioned northeast of the low
and is lifting across the interior of Southcentral. This feature is
producing some low stratus across the northern part of Cook Inlet
over the Susitna Valley where isolated snow showers persist,
especially north and west of Talkeetna. The second shortwave is
draped along the northern Gulf coast and has helped spin up weak
surface lows situated near the Copper River Delta. The cyclonic
circulation associated with these surface lows is clearly visible on
both satellite and radar imagery. These lows are also pushing clouds
into the Copper River Basin (where overnight temps remain in the
single digits to mid teens) and is producing bands of snow showers
across eastern Prince William Sound. Elsewhere across Southcentral,
areas of low clouds persist over Cook Inlet and snow showers
continue for Homer and Seward, helped in part by the unstable
southerly flow.
A third and fourth shortwave are rotating around the backside of
the upper-level low and are moving south over the eastern Bering.
These are producing areas of snow and gusty northerly winds from
the Kuskokwim Delta coast to the Pribilofs and northern portions
of the eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN.
Bands of heavy snow showers and areas of heavy freezing spray also
continue across the coastal and offshore waters as gusty winds
persist from the eastern half of the Bering to the western and
northern Gulf.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Forecast guidance is keying in on a similar synoptic pattern
through the end of the week as the upper level low in Bristol Bay
shifts east. The biggest difference is with the development of a
complex surface low south of the AKPEN and how this feature
evolves as it moves closer to Kodiak Island by Friday. Models
differ on whether a secondary low (or a weaker inverted trough)
will develop from the main low and track toward the northern half
of the island. Snow and wind are the bigger challenges with this,
given whether or not this feature spins up (and how strong if it
does). With this in mind, any differences in the evolution of this
system will also have impacts on cloud cover and temperatures not
only across Kodiak Island, but also the Kenai Peninsula, and
possibly parts of Cook Inlet and western Prince William Sound.
In the nearer term, models are also struggling with the
development and evolution of two compact surface lows currently
spinning up just south of Cordova. While most guidance suggests
that these features will quickly dissipate as they enter Prince
William Sound, the NAM is most bullish in holding these features
together as they retrograde into western Prince William Sound. If
the NAM is correct, this would yield another round of snow for
Portage Valley, and perhaps some light snow all the way into the
Anchorage Bowl through this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Low pressure moving into Prince William Sound is expected
to keep low stratus along with occasional flurries / light snow
showers over the airport complex through the evening hours. MVFR
conditions are expected to persist through the evening with
ceilings at or below 3,000 ft. Visibility may also be reduced to
MVFR at times with any snowfall. There is also a chance that the
aforementioned low holds together all the way to western Prince
William Sound. If it does, there is the possibility for an
extended period of light snow. However, confidence in this
solution is very low and is currently not included in the TAF
package.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
We continue to transition into a relatively quiet pattern after
the snow event on New Years Eve. A very cold, nearly vertically
stacked upper level low is wobbling over Bristol Bay. The cold air
coming over top of the warmer Gulf of AK waters is creating
widespread snow showers and also a few small scale circulation
centers. One of these centers is approaching the N Gulf Coast
near Cordova and will bring some rather intense snow showers to
that area through the morning. The cyclonic (counter clockwise)
circulation is just enough to loft some of this moisture over the
mountains and into the Cook Inlet area. Thus, we expect some light
flurries around the Anchorage Bowl through the morning, with
little to no accumulation. As the circulation center drifts back
to the west across Prince William Sound, it could bring a few
inches of snow back to Whittier and possibly as far inland as
Portage. At this time, it looks like dry air will keep it from
making it much further west, so have held at flurries tonight for
the Anchorage Bowl. However, if this feature holds together a bit
better, we could not rule out some light accumulations for
Girdwood, Turnagain Pass, and the Anchorage Hillside.
Another compact low will move up toward Kodiak Island through the
day today. This system looks to skirt along the E and NE side of
the island late today into tonight bringing the possibility of
another couple of inches of snow there as well. It will also bring
a return to strong (gale force) winds for many of the marine
areas such as Shelikof Strait and the Barren Islands. This system
will stall near the southern Kenai Peninsula and fall apart
through the day Fri. The overall pattern will then start to
reorient for the weekend with drier air settling in and a slight
uptick in offshore flow. This offshore flow will make for very dry
conditions inland and should allow skies to clear. At this time,
we expect some of the coldest temperatures of the winter thus far
for Sat morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Friday)
Cold conditions will prevail across the southwest mainland through
tomorrow. The mid-level low which has taken up residence over this
portion of the state is finally dropping south towards the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN). This continues to allow for decreasing cloud
cover and light winds to continue. Another artifact of the low
moving away will be warming temperatures at 850 mb (roughly 4000
feet above ground level), with the numerical guidance showing a 7
to 10 deg. C. warming at Bethel and King Salmon. It remains to be
seen though if this will translate to the surface, as an
initially isothermal (neutral temperature change as you increase
in height) layer between the surface and 850 mb develops an
inversion (increase in temperature with height...which helps
prevent any changes aloft from mixing to the surface). In either
case, it will remain cold through tomorrow...just to what degree
(pun intended).
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Friday)
A mid-level low will continue dropping towards the AKPEN this
evening, crossing into the western Gulf on Friday. Cold advection
will increase on the northern through western flank of this
low...with the net effect being cooling temperatures for the
Pribilof Islands, eastern Aleutians, and towards Sand Point. This
decrease in temperature aloft will also increase the ocean-
induced instability, allowing for some heavier snow squalls, with
Blizzard conditions continuing at the Pribilof Islands through the
afternoon, before improving conditions commence there this
evening.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
A relatively quiet weather pattern sets up for this time of year
all across southern Alaska and the Bering. A low over the southern
Gulf of Alaska moves into the eastern Gulf Saturday, with a
chance of some northwesterly gales through the Barren Islands. A
new North Pacific low may move into the southern Gulf on Sunday,
but there is substantial model disagreement, and confidence in
that is low.
High pressure will keep all winds below gale force all across the
Bering Sea. Winds may approach gale force in the western
Bering/Aleutians Sunday night as a strong low approaches. There
is limited confidence as to the track of this low through Monday
night, however, confidence is high that gales will cross into the
eastern Bering/Aleutians by then.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through
Wednesday)...
A quieter weather pattern is setting up for much of southern
Alaska in the long-term period as a cold air mass becomes firmly
planted across the area. This will divert the storm track to the
northern Pacific with any lows impacting the Panhandle. This is
generally agreed upon between models.
A weak low centered off the coast of Kodiak, over the
southwestern Gulf, will slowly move eastward across the southern
Gulf and into the eastern Gulf on Saturday. On Sunday, a new North
Pacific low may approach the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak, but
there is substantial model disagreement on this. There is much
better agreement on the leading front of a strong North Pacific
low moving into the western Aleutians on Monday. The front should
slowly track across the southern Bering and into the eastern
Bering by Wednesday.
Elsewhere, cold and dry will be the prevailing conditions across
mainland Alaska, which means the main weather hazard will be
strong gap winds, particularly through Thompson Pass, but also
possibly through the Matanuska Valley. These winds coupled with
the cold air may lead to wind chill concerns, which unlike
previous days, will focus more on Southcentral, rather than
southwest Alaska. Polar air will continue to drift southward
across the Bering through the weekend, however, winds will begin
to diminish to light and variable compared to start the week.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195.
Flood Advisory 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 130 138 139 170-172 178 179
181 185 412 414.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 130 137-140 160 165
179-181 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/JWIn the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 2, 9:26 AM AKST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
926 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0129 PM BLIZZARD PORT HEIDEN 56.95N 158.63W
12/31/2019 LAKE AND PENINSULA AK ASOS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEGAN AT 10:15AM AKST ON
THE 31ST AND ENDED AT 4:56PM AKST ON THE
01ST.
&&
EDLocal storm report, Jan 2, 9:29 AM AKST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
929 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1142 PM BLIZZARD PILOT POINT 57.58N 157.57W
12/31/2019 LAKE AND PENINSULA AK ASOS
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEGAN AT 2:33PM AKST ON
THE 31ST AND CONTINUED THROUGH 2:56PM ON THE
01ST.
&&
EDThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 3:04 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 72 hr | |
| Jan 1, 3:21 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Jan 1, 3:21 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Jan 2, 3:31 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 7 days | |
| Jan 2, 4:06 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Jan 2, 4:06 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 5 days | |
| Jan 2, 4:06 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 13 days | |
| Jan 2, 9:35 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 10 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2020Every small craft advisory in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.