Small Craft Advisory 620, NWS Anchorage, AK

515 
FZAK52 PAFC 181154
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190115-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 150 nm N of Atka becomes a trough of low pressure by
Tue evening, then dissipates Wed. A front approaches the Western 
Aleutians late Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-190115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190115-
Bristol Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Areas of fog.
.WED...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190115-
Unalaska Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190115-
Adak to Kiska-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190115-
Kiska to Attu-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Haze and patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Areas of fog.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 AM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

918 
FZAK52 PAFC 182343
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191230-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1004 mb low 160 nm Northwest of Nikolski moves into the North 
Pacific and dissipates into a trough by Wed afternoon. A 980 mb Sea 
of Okhotsk low extends a front over the western Aleutians through Thu
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-191230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming W wind 15 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191230-
Bristol Bay-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW wind after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Haze and areas of fog.
.WED...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 15 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191230-
Unalaska Bay-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming E wind in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming E wind 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable wind 10 kt. 
Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable wind 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191230-
Adak to Kiska-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE wind after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191230-
Kiska to Attu-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming NW wind in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 
3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
544 AM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Corrected Southwest Alaska and Bering Sea/Aleutians discussion

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The ridge that has been sitting from the Eastern Bering to most
of the AK mainland for the past few days is now taking on more of
an omega/blocking formation with closed and stacked circulations
socketed in place both upstream over the Bering Sea and downstream
in the AK Gulf. The ridge axis has remained far enough west to
prolong the clear and warm spell for most of the mainland, and
much of the Mat-Su valley and Bristol Bay inland areas handily
breached 70F once again Sunday afternoon. The occluded front
extending from the Bering low has stalled from near St Matthew
Island to Unalaska and weakened with plenty of low cloud coverage
continuing over the Aleutians just south of the Bering low.

Winds this morning have become much lighter and variable across
most of the region as the Gulf low has pulled away from the coast
and allowed the NW-SE pressure gradient to collapse. Warm valley
conditions are fading a bit faster than the previous couple
nights with the lack of any northerly flow at the lowest levels
letting radiational cooling have a stronger influence on the
surface layer conditions. Most inland areas remain nearly cloud
free, but dense marine fog over the Kuskokwim Bay & Bristol Bay is
managing to creep up and develop near the coastline. Otherwise,
the streak of warm, dry and fair inland weather continues for the
time being.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There are no new surprises on this forecast package. In the next
two days, the synoptic models show superb performance except when
handling the emerging circulation beneath the frontal boundary
over the North Pacific tonight. This is not a new issue, however,
latest solutions have shifted this next circulation farther
southeast of Kodiak before the ECM and GFS finds a common ground
as early as Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The models suggest Turnagain winds to increase tonight,
which will upped winds near PANC to at least 10 to 15 mph with
gusts near 20 to 25 mph. Winds will gradually diminish to 10 mph
by early Tuesday morning. The potential for showers near PANC is
feasible, but VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (through Tuesday)...

The trend over the next couple of days will be toward cooler
temperatures, higher RH values, and increased chances of showers.
That said, temperatures will still peak into the 70s inland today
before a downturn on Tuesday. A weak easterly waves moves slowly
west across Southcentral tonight and Tuesday bringing increased
chances of showers and cooler temperatures. Stability indices
will likely support isolated wet thunderstorms over the western
Copper River Basin on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Broad
offshore flow with locally gusty gap winds have diminished with
the trend now toward coastal seabreezes. As the coastal ridge
builds this evening expect a brief period of gusty east-southeast
winds across Turnagain Arm, Knik River winds, and and southerly
winds along the Copper River. These winds should diminish
overnight tonight. The Turnagain Arm wind is expected to bend into
South and West Anchorage this evening before diminishing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Portions of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta to the AKPEN have fog this
morning and the expectation is that it will mix out later this
morning. A couple of spots may hold onto it longer. The upper
level ridge is in place and will continue to influence the
weather across Southwest Alaska for today. Expect more dry and
warm weather. As time elapses, an upper level disturbance will
move westward across the southern Alaska and northern Aleutian
ranges which will enable showers to develop over the Kuskokwim
Mountains, northern Bristol Bay, and the Middle Kuskokwim Valley
on Tuesday. Because the ridge has been in place for awhile, the
antecedent airmass is parched and it may take a little longer for
the atmospheric column to become saturated than the models are
suggesting. The timing on Tuesday may be adjusted and some
locations may just get a trace of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a 995 mb surface low in the Western Bering. This low is
slowly going to push eastward but it is weakening. This system
will continue to bring small craft winds and light showers to
portions of the Bering Sea. There will definitely be showers along
the chain. By the middle of the week, an upper level ridge will
build into the region. However, the ridge will bring the usual
low stratus/patchy fog.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...
The only feature of interest is a low tracking through the
eastern Gulf Thu through Fri. The current forecast indicates
sub-small craft winds. However, some model solutions suggest the
chance for small craft winds (or even low ends gale force winds)
may clip the offshore areas Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

Looking ahead to later this week, models have been consistent
with two main features over the area. The first is an upper level
ridge in place over the Bering and the second is an upper level
low over the Gulf. By Friday, a Kamchatka low forces the ridge
eastward toward the Mainland, creating a more amplified pattern
for the weekend. As the ridge builds in Friday afternoon bringing
fair conditions to Southcentral, the Kamchatka low upstream will
drive a front across the Bering Saturday, bringing rain and
southerly flow to southwest Alaska. As the associated upper level
trough pushes eastward, increasing cloud cover and chances for
rain will arrive to Southcentral late Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS/CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO