Small Craft Advisory 545, NWS Anchorage, AK

648 
FZAK51 PAFC 161147
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170100-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the western Gulf and reaches the central Gulf Thu
night. A 1006 mb low forms 150 nm south of Sitkinak Fri afternoon
and moves 160 nm south of Middleton Island at 1009 mb Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-170100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170100-
Resurrection Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170100-
Prince William Sound-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170100-
Port Valdez-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170100-
Valdez Narrows-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170100-
Valdez Arm-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170100-
Passage Canal-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170100-
Barren Islands East-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt this morning becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170100-
Chiniak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170100-
Marmot Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170100-
Shelikof Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-170100-
Kachemak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

593 
FZAK51 PAFC 162356
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171300-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves across the Gulf through Sat afternoon. A 1004 mb 
low 360 nm Southwest of Sitkinak Fri morning moves along the front
to 90 nm South of Yakutat at 1014 mb for Sat afternoon. A 1006 mb
North Pacific low moves along the front to 310 nm Southwest of 
Sitkinak by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-171300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171300-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171300-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171300-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171300-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171300-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171300-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171300-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171300-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171300-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171300-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171300-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

071 
FZAK51 PAFC 171200
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-180045-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 mb low 205 nm south of Middleton Island Fri afternoon 
moves to 100 nm south of Yakutat at 1011 mb Sat morning before 
moving onshore Sun.

$$

PKZ119-180045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Along the coast, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25
kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Along the coast, seas 3 ft building 
to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Along the coast, E 25 kt diminishing
to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Along the coast, seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-180045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-180045-
Resurrection Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-180045-
Prince William Sound-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-180045-
Port Valdez-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-180045-
Valdez Narrows-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-180045-
Valdez Arm-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-180045-
Passage Canal-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-180045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-180045-
Barren Islands East-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-180045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-180045-
Chiniak Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-180045-
Marmot Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-180045-
Shelikof Strait-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-180045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-180045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-180045-
Kachemak Bay-
400 AM AKDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Starting in the west, an upper level low and associated warm
front are located near the western Aleutians, while a shortwave
trough is moving off the northeastern Bering Sea into the western
part of Alaska. Sandwiched between these two features is a
vertically stacked ridge from the eastern Aleutians extending
northwest into the Bering Sea. Another upper level ridge extends
from Southwest Alaska into the Interior, with an associated
surface high just offshore near Kuskokwim Bay. A low level thermal
trough is located from the Copper River Basin westward toward the
MatSu Valleys. Finally, an upper level low and surface low over
the northeastern Gulf is moving out of the forecast area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with an upper level ridge building
into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Wednesday and then
weakening Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile a shortwave trough moving
east-southeast toward Southcentral Alaska on Wednesday and
Thursday is handled fairly well with some minor differences on
position and strength. An upper level low moving east-northeast
across the Aleutians is handled well through Thursday, while on
Friday some differences emerge on the location as it slows down
and the low elongates. The Canadian model is currently showing
two separate lows while the other model solutions indicate different
variations of an elongated low with a new low forming in the
southwest quadrant of the parent low. A broad ridge forms over
the Gulf from a previous ridge over Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska. This ridge is slightly stronger with the Canadian model
extending it a bit farther inland into Southcentral while other
solutions are slightly weaker, keeping much of its influence over
the Gulf and coastal areas of Southcentral Alaska.

Surface features match up well through Thursday with a warm front
and associated precipitation moving into the AKPEN, Southwest
Alaska, and northern Gulf of Alaska. This front weakens quickly
Thursday night through Friday morning. The thermal trough will
continue Wednesday and Thursday across interior parts of
Southcentral and appears to weaken a bit on Friday as surface
ridging develops near the Southcentral coastal areas north of a
warm front moving into the Gulf on Friday. Only issue is seen on
Friday as two separate surface lows develop south of the Aleutians
with fairly significant differences on location of the low
centers.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light southwesterly to westerly seabreeze expected through
the evening hours with VFR conditions continuing through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level wave will move across interior Southcentral this
afternoon. Instability associated with this system will increase
shower and thunderstorm potential, mainly over the higher terrain
of the Alaska, Talkeetna, and Chugach Ranges this afternoon and
evening. This is due to the west-northwesterly flow aloft
providing an upslope flow across the mountains which will aid in
the lift necessary for convective development. Locations across
the Matanuska Valley and lower Susitna Valley may see an isolated
thunderstorm later this afternoon and evening as storms move off
the higher terrain. Places like Talkeetna and Anchorage, however,
may miss out on any thunderstorm activity due to the westerly
flow with the best chance for convective development along the
elevated terrain east of both locations. A few widely scattered
showers may linger into the overnight and early morning hours on
Thursday as this first wave continues to track east.

A second wave will then push across Southcentral on Thursday.
This system will trigger another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the region Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm activity may be more widespread with storm
development possible along the Kenai Mountains and over the Copper
River Basin in addition to the aforementioned areas today. The
flow aloft with this system will shift to the west-southwest,
allowing more moisture to advect over the region. The flow aloft,
however, will likely keep the brunt of the thunderstorm activity
away from places like Anchorage, Kenai, and possibly Talkeetna,
once again.

The pattern will then shift late Thursday into Friday as the
thermal trough lifts north in response to a trough moving into the
northern Gulf. This system will induce a coastal ridge which will
increase gap winds across Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley,
and Copper River Basin. Rain will overspread the Southcentral
coast by Friday as the trough continues to lift north and the flow
aloft switches from the west-southwest to the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level ridge remains in control across Southwest Alaska
today with warm temperatures expected. Some regions in Bristol
Bay may push the 77-78 degree F mark today. The ridge remains in
place through Thursday, though a squeeze play will begin to take
shape in the upper levels with an upper level trough dropping
southward and an approaching frontal system moving northeastward
along the Aleutian Chain. As a result, today will be the last
quiet day for much of the region. A few weak upper level waves
will move through the flow again today and may allow for cumulus
(Cu) to build up across the Kuskokwim Mountains and the western
Alaska Range. One of these may yet again grow enough to produce a
brief shower over the mountains.

Beginning Thursday, a more potent upper level wave is expected to
move into the region. Therefore, the risk for thunderstorms will
be higher than previous days due to the ridge breaking down.
Instability parameters such as CAPE (Convective Available
Potential Energy) values are between 100-500 J/Kg and LIs (Lifted
indices) are around 0. As a result, we have a trigger which is
the upper level wave moving southward, instability, and we have
moisture streaming into the area to work with. Therefore, all the
pieces of the puzzle are there to produce a thunderstorm. Right
now, it appears the Kuskokwim Mountains and the Alaska Range will
have the best chance of seeing a thunderstorm. The steering flow
is westerly through a decent depth of the atmosphere for the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley including Aniak, Sleetmute, and Lime Village for
storms to move off the mountains from west to east across the
region. This forecast is still being fine tuned, and it is
possible that thunderstorms will be more widespread.

For Friday, the region will remain under the influence of the
aforementioned upper level trough with the threat for
thunderstorms looming once again for Friday afternoon/evening.
Instability looks to be on par with the day before. Though, some
guidance shows the instability even more on Friday with CAPE
values of 200-800 J/Kg and LIs of -1 to -2. The steering flow
looks to turn more southwesterly for Friday resulting in any
storms that form on the mountains first moving from the southwest
to northeast direction. All the thunderstorm activity is expected
to remain to the east of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta both days,
though a shower cannot be ruled out for Friday afternoon/evening.

Bristol Bay will largely remain clear of all the activity with
another very warm day on tap for today with temperatures
decreasing a little bit each day as the ridge slowly breaks
down. As the front associated with a low pressure in the Bering
moves up the Aleutian Chain it will largely undergo frontolysis
(the dissipation of the front) as the upper level energy gets
stretched apart.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A frontal system currently over the Aleutian Chain this morning
will continue moving eastward along the Chain bringing frontal
precipitation in the form of rain. Dutch Harbor will likely see
rain later this morning into this afternoon. Any small craft
winds with the front will largely remain over the water in the
Bering and the Pacific near Adak. The southeasterly gap winds are
expected out of the normal gaps and passes from Dutch Harbor
eastward today.

An upper level ridge is otherwise expected to dominate the western
Bering and the western Aleutians for Thursday and Friday with the
normal low stratus and patchy fog.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Models are in decent agreement today with a low south of the
central Aleutians and high pressure over the eastern and central
Bering for Friday. Small craft winds with the low pressure system
will taper off Friday night. After this, models have come into
better alignment since yesterday with high pressure holding over
the eastern and central Bering through Saturday. Confidence has
increased that a polar low will drop down on Sunday, clipping the
western Bering with small craft winds.

A front associated with a complex low in the North Pacific is on
track to enter the southern Gulf Saturday. The current forecast
challenge is if the low maintains its center or weakens into a
trough. The former has the potential to bring high end small craft
to gale criteria winds across the Gulf on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Chances for precipitation will increase across the region
beginning Saturday, as moisture associated with a low south of the
eastern Aleutians works its way into the eastern Bering,
Southwest, along the Gulf coast, and into Southcentral through
Sunday. A similar low seems to be on the tail of the first,
bringing similar weather conditions to the aforementioned areas
through Monday. All in all, expect a wet pattern for the forecast
period.

For the western Aleutians and Bering Sea, expect a showery pattern
as multiple low pressure systems traverse the area. Beginning
Sunday, a polar low will drop down and clip the western Bering,
bringing ample rainfall. This will then move across the Aleutian
Chain through Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK