Small Craft Advisory 539, NWS Anchorage, AK

009 
FZAK52 PAFC 141207
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150115-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 mb low 320 nm southeast of Shemya moves 100 nm west of Adak at
996 mb Tue night. The low then moves 60 nm northwest of Adak at 
1000 mb Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt except variable wind 10 kt W of Chirikof
Island. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150115-
Bristol Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150115-
Unalaska Bay-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt shifting to SW wind in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150115-
Adak to Kiska-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150115-
Kiska to Attu-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
407 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 10 kt N of Saint Matthew Island...E wind 15 kt S of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

359 
FZAK52 PAFC 150004
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151245-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 170 nm west of Adak moves to 70 nm northwest of Adak 
at 998 mb Wed afternoon and then moves to 50 nm south of Adak at 
1001 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151245-
Bristol Bay-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151245-
Unalaska Bay-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt.

$$

PKZ172-151245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151245-
Adak to Kiska-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt Pacific side... E wind 20 kt Bering side. Seas 8
ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151245-
Kiska to Attu-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
404 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

154 
FZAK52 PAFC 151216
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160045-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 mb low 100 nm west of Adak moves over Adak at 1000 mb Wed 
night. The low then moves 150 nm southeast of Adak at 1002 mb Thu
night.

$$

PKZ150-160045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt E of Chirikof Island...W of Chirikof Island
Variable wind less than 10 kt in the morning becoming SE wind 10 to 
15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt shifting to SW wind after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160045-
Bristol Bay-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160045-
Unalaska Bay-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming S wind 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160045-
Adak to Kiska-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt on the Bering Side... W wind 25 kt on the 
Pacific side. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160045-
Kiska to Attu-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt S of Saint Matthew Island...Variable wind 10
kt N of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt W of Saint Matthew Island...N wind 15 kt E
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low over southwest Alaska is tracking eastward toward
the Gulf. A second upper level low is positioned south of the
Aleutian Chain and slowly moving toward the southeast. Farther west,
a ridge of high pressure over the Bering continues to keep a broad
area of marine stratus and fog in place.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are generally in good agreement, and there has
been improving agreement regarding the track and placement of the
low in the Gulf on Tuesday. Farther west, there is disagreement on
the placement of the low center over the western Aleutians Tuesday
night into Wednesday however all solutions do indicate a slight
strengthening of this system as it nears the Chain midweek.
Overall, the NAM solution was preferred for the morning forecast
package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...

A brief period of gusty southeasterly winds returns to the
terminal this afternoon before diminishing by the evening. Expect
VFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Tuesday)...

The primary weather feature affecting the area over the next
couple days is a low that is developing over the western Gulf. This
low will affect a pattern change across south central Alaska, with
the help of a favorable jet stream. Over the past week, nearly every
day featured a good chance of thunderstorms over the mountains, as
an unstable air mass persisted across the area. This morning, all of
that has changed as a stable marine air mass is now entrenched over
south central Alaska. That said, the stagnant air mass won't be
nearly as conducive for rain shower activity today as all the lift
will be with the low in the Gulf. Thus, while most areas will
struggle to get rid of the clouds for a good portion of the day,
chances of rain for inland locations will be substantially lower
today, with no thunderstorms expected anywhere in the area.

Meanwhile, the low in the Gulf is increasing chances of rain for
coastal locations today, as southeasterly flow hits the mountains.
The low is likely to strengthen enough to cause gale force winds
to develop north and west of the low center this afternoon into
tonight. The northerly winds behind the low will begin the
process of scouring out the stable air mass over Southcentral, as
the offshore winds begin drying out the area. Thus, look for
decreasing cloudiness as the day goes on. While the low is
causing easterly winds into the coast today, the Turnagain Arm and
Knik River Valley winds are expected to redevelop this afternoon
and evening. These winds are not expected to be quite as strong as
previous days, and only the southern and western most portions of
Anchorage could see breezy conditions later today. As the low
consolidates and tracks east tonight, the gap winds will rapidly
weaken.

On Tuesday, south central Alaska will enjoy the results of building
upper level ridging over the entire area. Northwesterly offshore
winds will cause the gap winds to shift to Resurrection Bay and
Passage Canal, where winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are
expected.
A gorgeous, sunny day is expected for nearly all of south central
Alaska as the drying out of the atmosphere continues. The ridging
will allow the air mass to warm quite a bit as well. Thus, 70s for
highs will be the norm for most everyone, with upper 70s possible in
the Susitna Valley. As far as thunderstorms go, the atmosphere
should be sufficiently dried out already. This, coupled with
continuing downslope northerly flow over the Alaska Range, will lead
to all except a few isolated areas of the mountains staying
thunderstorm free again on Tuesday, though typical mountain showers
in the afternoon are still possible.

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the
Copper River Basin Tuesday afternoon. Northerly winds out of the
Alaska Range will lower the afternoon relative humidity values
down to the 25 to 35 percent range with winds of 10 to 20 mph
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level ridge is expected to nudge its way into the region
beginning today and will remain across southwest Alaska throughout
the first half of the new work week. Since the flow is off the
Bering, especially for the Bethel to Kipnuk to Hooper Bay area, this
is bringing the marine influence from the Bering onshore. This is
being observed this morning especially in Hooper Bay where fog has
been present a majority of the night. As a result, temperatures were
brought down a touch due to the marine influence expected across the
aforementioned areas, especially the coastal areas. Further east,
for Aniak and Sleetmute down to Bristol Bay, the flow will mainly be
downsloping off the mountains which is a drying flow. This is
anticipated to lead to mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
especially for Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

One other thing to note is as the upper level ridge builds into
the region, some weak upper level waves in the flow may touch off
an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon into this evening.
However, the instability indices are marginal at best with the
most likely scenario being just the run of the mill pulse type
downpours that form with one maybe tapping into just enough
instability to produce a lightning strike. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be across the Kuskokwim Mountains, including Aniak
over to Sleetmute.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level ridge and corresponding surface high pressure
remains over much of the Bering through Tuesday afternoon. This
will continue the low stratus/patchy fog in areas. An upper level
low with its associated surface low will continue to slowly
meander eastward along the central to eastern Aleutian Chain
today through tonight. As a result, periods of rain showers are
expected especially along the south facing slopes of the central
and eastern Aleutian Chain. Dutch Harbor will be on the drier
side of this system as the flow through a good depth of the
atmosphere is from the southeast which will create some cross
barrier flow. However, even with this flow a few showers cannot be
ruled out this afternoon into this evening. A brief respite is
expected across Nikolski and Dutch Harbor as some weak upper level
ridging builds over the region Tuesday morning through early
Wednesday. However, the low stratus is expected to linger as moisture
remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion.

Another low and its associated front is expected to impact the
Aleutian Chain beginning Tuesday morning. As a result, small craft
advisory level winds are expected between Shemya and Amchitka
between Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning. Periods of
rain will also accompany the front affecting the western Aleutian
Chain first (including Adak and Amchitka) before pushing eastward
reaching Dutch Harbor by Wednesday morning. This low will
progress slowly eastward as the week progresses.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3-5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Models are in better agreement today with a low lifting over the
central Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon, but some uncertainty
still remains with the strength of this low. This system will
drift southward on Friday, with some models trying to bring high
pressure back into the Bering as this system weakens. The next
North Pacific low approaches the region late Friday into Saturday,
and models continue to have a difficult time resolving the
strength and placement of this system.

Over the Gulf, winds will shift on Wednesday once a low pressure
system moves into the eastern Gulf. Models diverge a bit on
Thursday in whether upper level ridging tries to build in, which
could bring strong winds through Shelikof Strait and around Kodiak
Island through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7: Thursday through Sunday)...

An upper level ridge over the eastern Bering and southwest Alaska
continues to move into south central Alaska spreading farther
eastward through the middle of the week. This is a favorable pattern
that will allow for low stratus to move into southwest Alaska under
the high pressure, keeping the area relatively dry through mid-week,
aside from afternoon showers over higher terrain. Chances for
precipitation increase across the region towards the end of the week
as an upper level wave begins move southward from northern interior
Alaska.

The weekend becomes a bit more uncertain as a front associated
with a North Pacific low begins to move over the Alaska Peninsula
and spread farther northward across southwest and south central
Alaska through Sunday. Models are struggling on the placement and
timing of the associated low center as it moves across the eastern
Bering and into the mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 141 (Kennicott River).
MARINE...Gales...119, 120, 131, 351.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...AH