Small Craft Advisory 433, NWS Anchorage, AK

337 
FZAK52 PAFC 252259
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261215-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low near the Pribilofs moves to near Saint Matthew
Island at 1007 mb Tue afternoon, then moves into the far northern
Bering and dissipates. A front moves into the western Aleutians 
Tue afternoon, then strengthens as it moves into the central 
Bering and Aleutians Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-261215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261215-
Bristol Bay-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261215-
Unalaska Bay-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261215-
Adak to Kiska-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261215-
Kiska to Attu-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-261215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
259 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...variable 10 kt
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Sun May 24 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper low continues over the eastern Bering Sea/eastern
Aleutians. Its associated trough extends eastward across the
northern Gulf of Alaska. This upper feature is supporting a north
moving surface low and its associated front over the northern
Gulf. Widespread rain connected with these features is evident
from the Gulf Coast to over the MAT-SU Valleys. Extensive cloud
cover associated with the front extends across much of the
southern Mainland. Only a few showers were evident across
Southwest Alaska early is afternoon. A cold upper trough
associated with the low over the eastern Bering is moving north
and may kick off a few thunderstorms over Southwest Alaska this
evening. Cloudy conditions with showers and rain were evident over
the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in good synoptic agreement through Tuesday.
Models do differ some on the amount of QPF expected with an
Easterly Wave which moves into the Copper River Basin Monday and
Monday night. The higher resolution NAM and Canadian Regional seem
to have the best handle on the QPF totals.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions should persist, though the
ceiling will be at or below 5000 ft at times through tonight.
Gusty southerly winds are expected across the airport complex
by early this evening and will likely continue into the morning
hours Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front that has been bringing rain to much of Southcentral
Alaska today is along the north Gulf coast through Cook Inlet this
afternoon. It is progressing northward, and as it passes, will
change the rain into rain showers which will diminish through the
night. The exception will be the Copper River basin and far
northern Susitna Valley which will see the moisture continue to
upslope along the Alaska Range which will keep precipitation
occurring.

Temperatures aloft will also drop with the passage of the front
over the region. The Copper river Basin will see temperatures
aloft cool enough that there may be some fresh snow as far down as
4000 ft overnight into Monday. In general, the cool and moist
southeast flow aloft will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad upper level low positioned over the eastern Aleutians
will allow for the showery pattern to persists late this afternoon
before tapering off into the overnight hours. Clearing conditions
and lingering moisture throughout the night could lead to possible
fog development across interior Bristol Bay for the early
morning hours. The next round of showers comes in Monday afternoon
and evening as the low pushes farther east and the next upper
level wave moves along the Bristol Bay coastline, which will keep
the Alaska Peninsula and coastal locations in these conditions.
The showers will then spread inland and persist over the next few
days, keeping a chance for rain in the forecast through early
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The stacked low over the eastern Bering and Aleutians will keep
an active pattern of small craft advisory level winds and rain
showers in the forecast from the central Aleutians to the Alaska
Peninsula. The showery pattern will persist through Tuesday
afternoon as the low lifts northward and exits the forecast area.
By late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, the next front approaches
the region, bringing widespread rain as it moves eastward. Models
are in better agreement today that this system will be stronger
than previous runs, with the potential to see gale force winds
later this week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...
Gulf of Alaska: A low approaching the southern Gulf Wednesday
will stall south of the Gulf and persist through Friday. Gales are
possible throughout this time over the offshore marine zones, but
are not expected at this point. Confidence is moderate, as any
westward deviation in the track of the low could bring gales to
the offshore zones.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A low centered west of Attu Wednesday
morning will bring a north-south oriented front into the Central
Bering through Thursday morning. Gales are likely in the waters
around Adak starting during the day Wednesday, which will expand
to cover the waters from Adak to west of the Pribilofs and Saint
Matthew Island by Thursday morning. The front rapidly weakens and
the gale threat ends by Thursday evening. No gales expected on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Monday)...
Model agreement going into the long-term is good. A large low
over the far western Bering and its associated front draped across
the central Bering will keep strong southerly flow ongoing across
the central and western Bering into Saturday. High pressure over
Southwest Alaska Thursday will persist while slowly drifting west
into the eastern Bering through Saturday. A stalled out low over
the southeastern Gulf Thursday remains nearly stationary through
Sunday. Meanwhile, a second upper level easterly wave may return
wet weather to Southcentral just in time for the upcoming weekend.
Certainly the details about all of these features remain to be
determined, but there is above average confidence. By Sunday and
Monday, the track of the low over the Central Aleutians and where
it goes diverges quickly, so very little can be said confidently
about the forecast by then.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 155 (Johnson River).
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW