Small Craft Advisory 413, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 18, 2020, 3:12 AM AKDT (11:12 UTC)

Expired

May 18, 2020, 3:45 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

216 
FZAK51 PAFC 181112
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-182345-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 mb low 50 nm southeast of Chignik will move to 50 nm west of 
King Salmon Tue morning then move inland and dissipate Tue afternoon.
High pressure will begin to build over the Gulf Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-182345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt by late morning. Seas
5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-182345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-182345-
Resurrection Bay-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-182345-
Prince William Sound-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-182345-
Port Valdez-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-182345-
Valdez Narrows-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-182345-
Valdez Arm-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-182345-
Passage Canal-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-182345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-182345-
Barren Islands East-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-182345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-182345-
Chiniak Bay-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-182345-
Marmot Bay-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-182345-
Shelikof Strait-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt by late morning. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-182345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-182345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-182345-
Kachemak Bay-
312 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 17, 4:32 PM AKDT, 10 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Sun May 17 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper level ridging is over the Gulf of Alaska and pushing into
Southern Alaska. The 250 mb jet stream is riding around this
ridge over the Alaska Peninsula and then over the Kenai Peninsula
before returning to the south over Southeast Alaska. A weak short
wave is over the eastern Copper River Basin and heading over the
AlCan border and out of the area.

Low pressure is making headway in the Bering Sea with a low close
to Adak with a front encompassing most of the Bering.

Mild instability remains over the mountains in Southcentral as
well as the Kuskokwim Valley region though it will be at peak
intensity late afternoon and rapidly become more stable by early
evening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in very good synoptic agreement though late in the
week. More subtle features will dictate model preference for
periods of convection and other more local features.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Wednesday evening)

High pressure will continue to keep most locations dry through
tonight for Southcentral. A mid-level trough, with an attendant
surface front will move into the southwestern Gulf and Kodiak
Island area tonight, reaching the remainder of Southcentral by
Monday. A fairly good chance of rainfall will accompany these
features as they move into the region. The front then undergoes
frontolysis (the dissipation of a front), as the trough outruns
it's better upper-level support. As this process occurs,
widespread clouds and a showery pattern will continue on Tuesday,
before drier air moves into the region on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Wednesday)...

Scattered showers have developed along a boundary extending along
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. The showers may move over Bethel later
this afternoon. Otherwise most of Southwest Alaska is under partly
to mostly sunny skies. This will change tonight as a front
associated with a low over the Bering moves into Southwest Alaska
from south to north. Thus, the lowest relative humidity values of
the next several days are expected this afternoon over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley.

As the front moves into Southwest Alaska on Monday morning, a low
is expected to develop south of Kodiak Island. As the front falls
apart and weakens, the low tracking near Kodiak Island will
concentrate the moisture around it. Thus, the heaviest rains are
expected over Bristol Bay Monday afternoon. Any initial
downsloping with the front should diminish as the low takes over.
Scattered shower activity will persist across much of Southwest
Alaska into the day Tuesday.

A break in the action is expected Tuesday night into most of
Wednesday. However, the next Bering front will approach the coast
late in the day on Wednesday. Thus, any sunshine will be brief,
and will be most likely away from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Wednesday)...

A low currently on the Bering side of the Aleutians between Adak
and Atka will be weakening into tonight as its occluded front
advances northeastward into the coast. The low will quickly weaken
and dissipate by Monday evening. A second low moves into the
western Aleutians Tuesday, as its front moves into the central
Bering by late in the day. The front continues gradually moving
eastward into the eastern Bering on Wednesday, nearing the coast
Wednesday evening. The parent low remains over the central Bering
between the Pribilofs and Adak Wednesday evening. Along the front,
gale force winds are likely, and those winds have been increased
from the previous forecast package.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

A weak area of low pressure in the Gulf Tuesday looks to dissipate
by Wednesday night. Winds and waves may be a bit higher,
although, nothing significant to note. A front associated with a
low over the central Aleutians will enter the western Gulf
Wednesday afternoon, bringing small craft winds and waves across
the Barren islands through Thursday.

A strengthening low across the Aleutians will bring gale force
winds and waves across the central Aleutians and the western and
central Bering Tuesday. Expect these to propagate north and east
as the low moves towards the southwest coast before dissipating
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Monday)...

Widespread rain across the Bering, Aleutian Chain and the
southwest coast will continue on Thursday as a very large complex
low remains over the Aleutians. This moisture will move into
Southcentral, however, forecast timing on this is currently a
challenge. The challenge remains with timing of the complex low
splitting into smaller lows and those smaller lows propagating
into the Gulf.

All in all, expect cooler temperatures, chances for rain and
increased winds through the extended forecast period as this
pattern looks to continue through then.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2020Every small craft advisory in 2020

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.