Small Craft Advisory 331, NWS Anchorage, AK

078 
FZAK51 PAFC 131149
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140030-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the northern Gulf coast remains nearly stationary 
before weakening Monday afternoon. Weak low pressure remains over the
Gulf through Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-140030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140030-
Resurrection Bay-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140030-
Prince William Sound-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140030-
Port Valdez-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140030-
Valdez Narrows-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140030-
Valdez Arm-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140030-
Passage Canal-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140030-
Barren Islands East-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140030-
Chiniak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140030-
Marmot Bay-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140030-
Shelikof Strait-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140030-
Kachemak Bay-
349 AM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

952 
FZAK51 PAFC 132344
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141245-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Weak low pressure remains in place over the northern Gulf through
Tuesday morning. A front approaches the western Gulf Tuesday night
and moves to the central Gulf Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141245-
Resurrection Bay-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141245-
Prince William Sound-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141245-
Port Valdez-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141245-
Valdez Narrows-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141245-
Valdez Arm-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141245-
Passage Canal-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141245-
Barren Islands East-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141245-
Chiniak Bay-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141245-
Marmot Bay-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141245-
Shelikof Strait-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141245-
Kachemak Bay-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The longwave pattern features a ridge axis over Southeast Alaska
and extending into the Yukon Territory. There is a negative-tilted
shortwave near Kodiak. There is a closed low north of the Pribilof
Islands with the trough axis over the Central Aleutians and there
is a more robust closed low south of Attu Island. The radars at
Kenai and Middleton Island have been active overnight with the
system that is approaching the Anchorage Bowl. Gale force winds
were detected in Shelikof Strait and near the Barren Islands with
ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) data early this morning. A second
area of gale force winds were detected south of the western
Aleutians which are being generated from a 970 mb low that is
south of Shemya. There is a 90 knot jet core near Kodiak and a
160+ knot jet core south of Attu Island. The current snow depth at
the the NWS Office in Anchorage is 15 inches while Valdez City
has 75 inches of snow on the ground.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in decent agreement through Monday. The timing of the
precipitation shield up Cook Inlet and across the Kenai peninsula looks
reasonable with the GFS, NAM and Canadian. However, there are
some minor differences in the exact timing of the precipitation
starting across the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl. There are
2 additional systems upstream and the precipitation shields look
good with those systems as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...As of 10z the ceilings at PANC and PAMR were VFR. Homer's
ceiling was at 7,000 ft. The radars at Middleton Island and Kenai
clearly show a band of moisture with the much advertised feature
in the Gulf. The expectation is that the ceilings will continue to
decrease this morning and there is the potential for a rain/snow
mix at PANC. Its possible that PANC will go briefly into MVFR
territory, but its a tough call.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The warm front is upon Southcentral Alaska early this morning
bringing rain to Kodiak and a mix of precipitation types
elsewhere. A dry lower level of the atmosphere, combined with some
downsloping is keeping the precipitation at bay for the majority
of the Cook Inlet region, but that is expected to change as the
day wears on. While a rain/snow mix is expected, snow amounts are
expected to be very low as anything that falls should melt
quickly.

The Susitna Valley is the are with the best chance for
accumulating snowfall. Temperatures aloft will be colder there
then the rest of Southcentral and flow aloft will be southwest,
which is a favorable direction for there. Temperatures will be
warm enough to put a damper on accumulations for the daytime
hours, but overnight there should be enough cooling for the snow
to accumulate. After weighing all these factors, ended up going
with total snow amounts around 3 to 7 inches through Monday
morning in the Susitna Valley with this system.

For the Prince William Sound area, the precipitation should start
as snow this morning and then switch to rain by afternoon. The
snow may mix back in overnight as temperatures cool diurnally, but
temperatures aloft are still warm enough to give rain the upper
hand for areas near sea level through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow showers can be spotted around inland locations of Southwest
Alaska this morning, with a few rain showers along coastal areas.
By this afternoon, a surface low develops off the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast, which will bring a much more organized round of
precipitation to the region. As warmer air begins to move in with
this system, many locations that initially started off as snow
will transition over to rain or a mix of rain or snow as the band
of precipitation continues to move eastward through Monday
morning. By Monday, the bulk of the showers will have tapered off
across the region as a shortwave ridge moves in across Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Over the western Bering and Aleutians, a front continues to
dissipate, resulting in a showery pattern. Meanwhile, a surface
low in the eastern Bering this morning will bring a period of rain
and snow, as well as stronger winds, to the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula before the front moves inland by the afternoon
hours. Shortwave ridging moving in behind this feature will give a
brief period of quiet weather before the next North Pacific
surface low moves across the eastern Aleutians, allowing strong
winds and precipitation to return.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Tuesday through Thursday)

Monday

Bering Sea/Aleutians…

The well established area of high pressure residing over the eastern
Pacific will continue to influence the Bering with consistent
southerly winds and a tap of warmer, moist air. Tuesday morning a
1000 mb low over the central Bering looks to be on its way to
degrading into an open wave under an upper level trough. Wednesday
looks to be more of the same with the ridge holding its ground
and a series of minor disturbances moving across the eastern
Aleutians and eastern Bering. However, a bigger pattern shift
looks to be advertised for Thursday as a stronger low pressure
system materializes in the northwest Pacific and pushes through
the Bering. The first impacts look to be a strong push of
southerly moisture into the Aleutians Thursday morning and
spreading across the Pribilofs by Thursday afternoon before the
parent low pushes deeper into the Bering Thursday night.

Gulf of Alaska…

The resident high pressure in the eastern Pacific will continue to
push strong southerly flow into the Gulf of Alaska. The frontal
boundary stretched across the north Gulf coast Tuesday morning
will slowly erode as the low pressure in the Bering moves beyond
60N. This will usher in a relatively quiet Tuesday afternoon for
the Gulf of Alaska under the upper ridge that remains in place.
Late Tuesday night another upper level disturbance pushes into the
southwest Gulf and will extend its impact to the north Gulf coast
and the remainder of the Gulf Wednesday morning into mid-morning
Thursday. The remainder of Thursday looks to be quiet again as
high pressure regains a foothold in the wake of this disturbance.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Beginning Monday night, the entire forecast area will come under
the influence of the trough currently established over the Bering
Sea. While the main low center will remain to the south of the
Aleutian Islands, several waves will develop on the eastern side,
moving northward over Kodiak and into Southcentral. This will
bring periods of precipitation for both Southwest Alaska and
Southcentral as these waves move northward. With a southerly fetch
of warm air, for the most part this looks like precipitation will
mix across the mainland. However, with winter still hanging on by
its teeth in some of the more northern regions, this could mean
another round of snowfall for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and the
northern Susitna Valley.

Beginning Thursday, the operational model runs are in fairly good
agreement on an upper level ridge building in over eastern AK,
with a broad longwave trough settling in over the Bering Sea.
However, as the models progress, there is some difference in the
orientation of the ridge axis over eastern AK. GFS indicates a
broader, flatter ridge, which EC shows a much sharper ridge with
the axis slightly further west. This will make a difference in the
sensible weather at the surface, in particular for Southcentral
and areas eastward. Should the GFS solution set up, the broader
ridge will allow waves to move across the forecast area, thus
bringing the possibility of rain to the eastern half of the state.
However, should the EC solution eventuate, the sharper ridge will
keep weather systems further west and the eastern half of the
state will remain dry.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 131.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ALH
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF