Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

808 
WWAK61 PAFC 150941
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
141 AM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

AKZ101-160145-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.200815T2000Z-200816T0600Z/
141 AM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL...

* Winds...North 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...Saturday afternoon and evening

* Relative Humidity...25 to 35 percent.

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 70s.

* Location...Anchorage and locations along the Glenn Highway.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-160145-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.200815T2000Z-200816T0600Z/
141 AM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Saturday afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 35 percent.

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ121-160145-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.200815T2000Z-200816T0600Z/
141 AM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA NORTH OF CLAM GULCH...

* Winds...North 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Timing...Saturday afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 35 percent.

* Temperatures...Lower 70s to upper 70s.

* Location...Mainly along and north of the Sterling Highway.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ145-160145-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.200815T2000Z-200816T0600Z/
141 AM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SUSITNA VALLEY...

* Winds...North 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...Saturday afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 30 percent.

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

850 
WWAK61 PAFC 160038
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

AKZ101-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200816T0600Z/
438 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS 
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...

* Winds...North 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 35 percent.

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 70s.

* Location...Anchorage and locations along the Glenn Highway.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200816T0600Z/
438 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS 
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 35 percent.

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ121-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200816T0600Z/
438 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS 
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN KENAI 
PENINSULA NORTH OF CLAM GULCH...

* Winds...North 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 35 percent.

* Temperatures...Lower 70s to upper 70s.

* Location...Mainly along and north of the Sterling Highway.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ145-160600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200816T0600Z/
438 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS 
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUSITNA VALLEY...

* Winds...North 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon and evening.

* Relative Humidity...25 to 30 percent.

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

427 
WWAK61 PAFC 160550
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
950 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

AKZ101-111-121-145-160700-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200816T0600Z/
950 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL, MATANUSKA VALLEY, SUSITNA VALLEY AND
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Northeast flow continues across the interior and upstream of the
upper trough over the Eastern Gulf this morning with a smaller
easterly wave tracking into the Southcentral area. This
embedded/easterly wave most likely aided in the development of
another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the
Talkeetna range & Kenai peninsula to a lesser extent on Thursday
afternoon despite relatively dry lower levels visible on low level
water vapor and 00z AFC sounding. An expansive upper ridge
continues to build over the northern 2/3 of the state and over the
Bering Sea with mainly clear and dry downstream conditions
dominating much of the Western interior.

The remaining feature of note is the low crossing from the
Southeast Bering into the North Pacific near the tip of the
Alaska Peninsula as it begins to interact with the upper level jet
and the broader trough in the Gulf. Areas of light rain and dense
overcast from False Pass to Chignik have been observed to the
north over the past few hours near the low center. Meanwhile,
marine stratus extends to the west across most of the Aleutians
and Western Bering underneath the aforementioned ridging and
surface high pressure. Fog has been more scarce this morning with
somewhat warmer conditions filtering in from the north and the
general lack of widespread precip over the past day or so. Aside
from a few areas of broken/scattered clouds rotating through the
Southeast and Copper River Basin, another fairly calm and clear
morning is underway once more for most inland areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical models are aligning well in response to existing upper
level features including the circulations near surface. Of these
synoptic pattern, an upper level low over the Gulf is sandwiched
between two separate but broad areas of highs aloft. The pressure
and wind gradients will continue to steepen as well as the
elongated ridge north of the upper low through the weekend.
Essentially, this low will exit the Gulf into the North Pacific
starting Sunday morning, while the ridge settles undisturbingly
along the Yukon Territory through the north of Kuskokwim Mountains
into early next week.

Over the Bering, an amplified upper level ridge will shift inland
starting Friday night, and this should keep stratus/fog over much
of the Bering before the next frontal boundary creeps over
western Aleutians starting Sunday morning. As a result, solutions
are much more improved on this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday with the
exception of a few showers passing near PANC the next couple
days. Light winds will gradually rise to 10 to 15kt from the NNE
overnight Friday night, with gusts picking up to around 20 kt on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Sat night)...

A pattern change to drier, warmer, and windier conditions starts
today and continues into the weekend.

A broad upper low over the Gulf moves slowly south through the
weekend as ridging builds over the mainland. This will set up
offshore flow today which will strengthen into Saturday afternoon.
The result will be strong outflow winds across the North Gulf
Coast, Prince William Sound, and the western Kenai Peninsula.
Brisk northerly gap winds will also develop over the Susitna
Valley, NE winds over the Matanuska Valley, and northerly gap
flows through the Alaska Range. These outflow and gap winds will
strengthen through this afternoon and should peak Saturday before
diminishing Saturday night. Accompanying the winds will be warming
temperatures with many areas getting in the upper 60s to upper
70s with the warmest temperatures inland through Saturday. Coastal
areas will not be immune to the warm temperatures as compressional
warming and strengthening offshore flow will hold out the afternoon
seabreezes.

Before the drying occurs, there is still a chance of afternoon
and evening showers today. There may even be enough instability
to kick off a few wet thunderstorms along the Talkeetna
Mountains. Then the drying and ridging aloft take over.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level ridge is expected to dominate the pattern for the
forecast period for most of Southwest Alaska. Sensible weather-
wise anticipate dry conditions with high temperatures ranging from
the upper 60s to 70s through the weekend. An enhanced pressure
gradient will set up later today and Saturday resulting in breezy
winds for portions of SW AK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The high that has been hovering across the northern Bering Sea
will re-orient and bisect the Bering north to southward. Portions
of the central and east Bering might even see blue skies. Looking
upstream, a gale force frontal system will continue to move
towards the western Aleutian Chain. This is a mature low that will
deepen a little bit more today. As time elapses, the surface low
will jump the chain and move into the western Bering. This system
has a deep fetch of tropical moisture with it. Looking at
satellite imagery this plume of moisture extends west of the
Marianas Islands. Suffice to say, this system is juiced. While
the surface low will move northeastward, expect the frontal to
slowly push north and east. There is already some decent
lightning that has been detected with this front overnight. The
expectation is that more convection will percolate with this
baroclinic zone this forecast package.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Aleutians/Bering: A North Pacific low and front move across the
Aleutians and Bering through Tue. While the track and development
of the low are mixed through the end of the forecast, confidence
is good for showers and small craft winds and waves to move with
the front over the Aleutians and Bering. Some local gales may be
possible West of St Matthew Island and diminishing Sun as the
winds wrap around the low through Tue. As the front enters the
Eastern Bering Mon, the winds dissipate. Northerly small craft
winds and waves continue over the Western Bering behind the low
through Tue.

Gulf of AK: A Southern Gulf low dissipates over the North Pacific
by Tue. Confidence is fair for showers and Northerly small craft
winds and waves over the Western Gulf for Sun. Several troughs
move around the dissipating low through Tue. Confidence is good
for local Easterly small craft winds to develop along the North
Gulf Coast through Tue. A new front enters the Western Gulf for
Tue. Confidence is good for showers and Southerly small craft
winds over the Western Gulf for Mon and Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu)...

There is good model agreement that the amplified ridge will begin
to break down on Monday, with one piece lifting northeast and
phasing with the North American ridge and the second retreating
south over the North Pacific. This transition comes as a result of
the Bering low sliding southeast over the AKPEN, lifting a second
upper-level wave into the Gulf of Alaska. Upstream, yet another
upper-level low dives into the Bering from Siberia. These features
will all work to establish a long-wave trough right where the
ridge was over the weekend. The resulting flow will turn
southeasterly over the Gulf and Southcentral, ushering in moisture
and increasing clouds and chances for showers late Monday into
Tuesday. The pattern is similar over the Southwest where a
southerly flow ahead of a frontal system will also bring increased
chances for clouds and precipitation early next week. By mid-week,
the upper- level low in the Gulf remains as a ridge tries to build
over the interior from the north. This pattern would result in a
building of the thermal trough with warmer and drier conditions
under a northerly flow. Periodic easterly waves transiting the
region would bring a chance for afternoon and evening showers
across Southcentral mid-week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS/CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/TM