Hurricane Force Wind Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

994 
FZAK52 PAFC 292350
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301230-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure moves over the western Aleutians into the North 
Pacific by Thu morning. A 967 mb North Pacific low crosses the 
Alaska Peninsula to 65 nm southwest of Kipnuk at 990 mb for Thu 
afternoon. Its front stretches over the eastern Bering through Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-301230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 65 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 28
ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt, except N 40 kt W of the Shumagin Islands. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin 
Islands E. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301230-
Bristol Bay-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE 30 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, NE wind 35 kt becoming N
20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, N wind 15 kt 
becoming W after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301230-
Unalaska Bay-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after midnight.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301230-
Adak to Kiska-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301230-
Kiska to Attu-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-301230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...variable 10 kt
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

783 
FZAK52 PAFC 301204
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010045-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 190 nm S of Sitkinak Wed morning crosses the AKPEN 
to 160 nm W of Dillingham Thursday morning. This low will weaken
over the eastern Bering as a new low moves to 190 nm S of Sitkinak
at 967 nm Friday morning.

$$

PKZ150-010045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except S 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010045-
Bristol Bay-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, N wind 35 kt
diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except NW 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010045-
Unalaska Bay-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010045-
Adak to Kiska-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010045-
Kiska to Attu-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-010045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
404 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The remnants of the strong low that moved through the Gulf of
Alaska is elongating over Southcentral Alaska and into Bristol Bay
this afternoon bringing in some rain to a bit of the region. Some
pressure rises behind this low are bringing in some gusty
southerly winds into Prince William Sound and the Copper River
Basin.

The GOES-17 Satellite imagery for the North Pacific shows the
upper level longwave trough extending southward from the central
Bering Sea to about 35N in the Pacific and then curving sharply
around the base of the trough and back into Southeast Alaska. The
next low of significance can also be seen rapidly spinning-up
around 42N 160W this afternoon. This will be the next in a series
of lows to move into the western Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through mid week. By Wednesday
evening there is a notable difference in how fast models bring the
low from south of the Gulf into Bristol Bay around that time
frame. The ECMWF and Canadian are the fastest of the bunch while
the NAM is a bit slower and also stronger at that time. This
mostly resolves itself as the next low moves into the Gulf Friday
and absorbs the energy causing that first low to dissipate in the
central Bering Sea. In the longer term, models are in agreement
with bringing the parade of lows moving moving from the North
Pacific into the Gulf going through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty Southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected
this evening through most of the overnight hours. While there will
be some light rain at times in the area, these winds should help
keep ceilings VFR, although a period of MVFR ceilings is possible
early this evening in conjunction with the rain. Visibility
should also remain VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

The cloud remnants from the low pressure system from yesterday are
still making their way across the Gulf of Alaska, Copper River
Basin, Prince William Sound, Kenai and across Anchorage this
evening. Weather observations from across much of the coastal area
indicated steady light to moderate rain, and this should continue
through tonight before rainfall dissipates by early Tuesday
morning. However, western Kenai and Kodiak are expected to stay
dry tonight before the next round of rainfall approaches these
respective locations Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The next major circulation from the North Pacific is still
trekking toward the western Gulf, which will skirt right along the
south-southwest of Kodiak in the next couple days. A broad upper
level ridge settling east-northeast of this deepening low will
continue to build northwestward, and this will force the low
pressure system to steer westward and away from the Gulf in the
days ahead. A strong frontal boundary associated with the expected
storm will dump a lot of rainfall over much of Southcentral Alaska
through the middle of the week. Also, the onset of this next
frontal zone will elevate winds and hazardous wave heights through
the forecast period. Very strong and gusty winds will be felt over
populated areas especially near passes and gaps, and over the
Gulf, including Kodiak, between Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall,
an extensive period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, and
this will be closely monitored the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper level trough lifting northward from the Gulf across
Southwest Alaska tonight will produce just a few showers. Attention
will quickly shift to a much more significant feature. A storm
force low pushes towards the Southern Gulf tonight through Tuesday
before quickly curving northwest towards Bristol Bay. This system
becomes occluded early on, but will remain deep and cause significant
winds and waves as the leading front reaches the Alaska Peninsula
and Bristol Bay Tuesday through Tuesday night. Gusty northeasterly
flow will develop across all of Southwest Alaska Tuesday night
and Wednesday, though the winds over the marine areas will be the
strongest. Additionally, a band of light to moderate rainfall out
ahead of the front will push across the Southwest beginning
Wednesday followed by a more showery regime behind the front on
Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the track of the low as it
crosses into Bristol Bay Wednesday night. This will determine if
Southwest Alaska (especially Bristol bay) will see a period of
stronger easterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Tonight and tomorrow will remain relatively calm across the Bering
and Aleutians. Northerly winds will then strengthen as the
Pacific low makes its way to Bristol Bay Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The strongest winds will be confined to the eastern
half of the Bering and Aleutians, with enhanced winds through bays
and passes.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering/Aleutians

A weakening area of low pressure in the eastern Bering will bring
small craft winds to the area. A second and much stronger low will
move northwestward across the AKPEN and into the Bering Thursday
night into Friday morning. This low will bring widespread small
craft winds with small areas of gale force winds possible.
Confidence in the exact track of this system is low to moderate as
there are discrepancies on the placement of the low center between
models.

Gulf of Alaska

A strong area of low pressure will move across the western Gulf
Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Widespread gale force
winds are likely, especially in the western Gulf. Confidence is
lower on the timing of these winds as there are discrepancies
between models on the placement of the low center. Another low
will move into the Gulf Saturday afternoon, though confidence
remains very low with regard to this low due to major
discrepancies in the placement and intensity of the low center.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Thursday through Monday)...

The pattern will be highly amplified on Thursday with a deep
negatively-tilted upper level trough over the Bering/Aleutians and
a strong upper level ridge over the west coast of Canada. The
negative-tilt of this upper trough will be favorable for
cyclogenesis as a strong area of low pressure moves into the
western Gulf on Thursday and crosses the AKPEN into the Bering Sea
on Friday. Confidence is low in the exact placement of this low
due to discrepancies in guidance as this low crosses into the
Bering. Once in the Bering, this low will gradually weaken through
Sunday as the center of this low moves farther away from the core
of the jetstream and loses synoptic support. Another strong low
will move northeastward into the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday
afternoon then will gradually weaken while remaining in the
northern Gulf through Monday. Confidence with respect to this
system is very low as there are significant discrepancies with the
placement and intensity of this low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm warning 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155.
Gale warning 119 165 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB/MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM/SEB
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED