Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

669 
FZAK52 PAFC 082356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091300-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Two 972 mb lows 95 nm South of Amchitka and 90 nm West of Attu 
merge to form a 974 mb low 300 nm West of Attu Thu afternoon. A 
968 mb North Pacific low merges with the 974 mb low and become a 
955 mb low 205 nm North of Attu for Fri afternoon. Its front 
pushes across the Bering and Alaska Peninsula through Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-091300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt early morning becoming variable 10 kt by late
morning, then increasing to W 30 kt in the afternoon. From the 
Shumagin Islands E, N wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt except W 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091300-
Bristol Bay-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt after
midnight. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091300-
Unalaska Bay-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091300-
Adak to Kiska-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side...23 ft Pacific 
side.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread snow showers and rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft Bering side...26 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091300-
Kiska to Attu-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 15
ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.THU...E wind 25 kt.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt.
.MON...W wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-091300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
256 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKST Tue Jan 7 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A deep 500 mb closed low continues to remain centered over the
interior of mainland Alaska, with a negatively-tilted trough axis
extending southeastward toward Haida Gwaii. Fairbanks, being the
closest sounding site to the center of this low recorded a 500 mb
height of 497 Dm at 12z. The upper-level flow remains weak across
the Southcentral Alaskan mainland due to the low center being in
close proximity to the region. Upper-level flow is also weak
across much of the Bering and over the Pribilof Islands due to a
combination of 500 mb ridging with a weak 500 mb height gradient.
Upper-level flow is strongest over the central Aleutians, across
the AKPEN and into the southern Gulf where the 500 mb height
gradient is steepest. Water vapor imagery shows an occluded front
southwest of the western Aleutians. Both GOES-17 visible satellite
imagery and radar imagery show a low off-shore from Cordova due
to winds through the channel between Hinchinbrook and Montague
Islands combined with the cold airmass in place. Snow shower
activity associated with this low is slowly moving eastward toward
Kayak Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern across the
region. The GFS, ECMWF, NAM and the Canadian GEM all have similar
solutions with respect to the placement and intensity of the low
that is expected to move through the western Aleutians/Bering on
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The NAMNest was favored for
the wind forecast across the Copper River Delta for the next
couple of days as it has the best handle with resolving the
current mesoscale features across the region when comparing to
real-time observations, satellite and radar.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR to LIFR visibilities and/or ceilings are expected through
the afternoon hours Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level low currently over the Interior will move to the
southeast by Wednesday afternoon. While gap winds along the
northern Gulf coast are currently occurring, they are expected to
strengthen overnight tonight through Wednesday morning. The
strongest winds can be expected for Seward/Resurrection Bay,
Whittier/Passage Canal, the Valdez area including Thompson Pass,
and the Copper River Delta. A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued
for Thompson Pass, as wind chills will drop to 45 below zero
through the Pass beginning tonight.

Looking ahead to Thursday, another low spins up south of the
Alaska Peninsula. This low looks to track across the Gulf,
remaining well south of the southern Mainland. A brief shot of
accumulating snow is possible for Kodiak Island Thursday
afternoon as the low quickly passes over before departing the area
by Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An Arctic high remains oriented over the mainland, with very cold
conditions continuing in the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta and Bristol
Bay. A wind chill advisory is in effect until noon Wednesday for
the Kuskokwim Delta, and for interior Bristol Bay (New Stuyahok,
Koliganek) for wind chills down to 50 below. Expect a transition
to southerly flow ahead of an approaching warm front by midday
Wednesday, and conditions will start trending warmer. Temperatures
will generally still be below zero Wednesday, but will cross into
the positives Thursday as the front nears the coast and Arctic
air recedes northward. The front will shear apart as it reaches
the mainland, but should still bring some precipitation to the
AKPEN, and coastal areas of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A gale force low south of the western Aleutians will push a front
northward through the Bering, bringing rain or a rain/snow mix to
the southern Bering and Aleutians Wednesday...reaching the
Pribilof Islands Wednesday afternoon. Expect another round of
gales on the backside of the parent low, over the central and
western Aleutians late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...
A storm in the western Bering Sea has a front that drapes across
the Bering Sea to the Alaska Peninsula on Friday. This storm will
track from St Lawrence Island to Nunivak Island Sunday. The main
impact is gale and storm force winds associated with this storm.
Gales in advance of the front with Gale and storm force wind south
of the low as it traverses across the Bering Sea offshore zones.
The gale and storm force wind should drop off south of the low
through the day Sunday.

A strong storm is exiting the southeast Gulf of Alaska Friday.
North to northwest wind wrapping around the backside of this low
should be below gale force Friday. Wind in the Gulf of Alaska and
along the coast of Gulf of Alaska will remain below gale force
Friday through Sunday with the exception of the Copper River
Delta. The Delta may still have gale force wind blowing out of it
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Tuesday)...
The models are on track with a pattern shift toward this weekend.
A large surface and upper level low will move across the Bering
Sea to the northeast Bering Sea by Sunday. The low then weakens to
a trough aloft as it rapidly moves across northern Alaska through
Monday. This will result in dramatic warming across southwest
Alaska through the weekend as temperatures rise to the 20s to near
30 above. South central Alaska will also see temperatures warm
through the weekend to the teens and 20s. The exception is in the
Copper River Basin where the cold air appears to be firmly
entrenched, and the coldest air will move over the area. Some of
the model guidance is forecasting low temperatures to as low as
-60 F for Gulkana Saturday and Sunday night. This is significantly
colder than what has been in most of the model solutions up to
this point. If this big of a temperature difference does form
between the Copper River Basin and Gulf of Alaska, we could see
very strong gap wind through the Chugach Mountains that would impact
Prince William Sound and the Copper River Delta.

A surface low will form along the front of this Bering low near
Kodiak Island or the Gulf of Alaska Thursday. Here the models
have not come into good agreement and the difference in the
location of the low, while small, has a significant difference in
the sensible weather, in particular for Kodiak Island. If the low
is further south and east, Kodiak could get little if any snow or
a mix of rain and snow, or if the low is closer to Kodiak, there
could be 4 to 10 inches of snow. This will bear watching through
the week.

Another upper trough follows behind this trough Monday and will
extend south across the Alaska Peninsula into the north Pacific. A
surface low will likely form in the base of this trough south of
Kodiak Island Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will primarily
impact the Gulf of Alaska offshore region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131 155 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning 121 127 129 170 173>180 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 119 121 127>130 139 141 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED/RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...SA