Gale Warning 89, NWS Anchorage, AK

725 
FZAK51 PAFC 260043
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261345-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 mb low remains stationary across the north Gulf while a 984 mb
low 295 nm southwest of Sitka develops through Sat evening. This 984
mb low merges with the 985 mb low across the north Gulf Sun morning.
A 990 mb develops 220 nm southeast of Kodiak City and moves slowly
north while consolidating with a 984 mb low across the north Gulf Mon
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-261345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt except NE 20 kt near the coast. Gusts to
45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261345-
Resurrection Bay-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261345-
Prince William Sound-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261345-
Port Valdez-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40
kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261345-
Valdez Narrows-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261345-
Valdez Arm-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261345-
Passage Canal-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261345-
Barren Islands East-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt except NW 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261345-
Chiniak Bay-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261345-
Marmot Bay-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261345-
Shelikof Strait-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-261345-
Kachemak Bay-
343 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
700 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

This morning's analysis aloft showed a pair of mid-level lows over
the northern Gulf and eastern interior respectively, with a
negatively tilted ridge stretching from eastern Siberia, through
the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians, into the north
Pacific. Another mid-level low was located west of Shemya. All of
these lows have a surface low reflection as well.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical guidance remains in great agreement through the
middle of next week in the synoptic pattern aloft, with good
agreement at the surface through early Tuesday. Thereafter, the
main difference lies with a very strong area of low pressure
racing north into the Gulf by Wednesday. The GFS had previously
been an outlier in this as it depicted a surface low around ~940 mb
heading towards eastern Prince William Sound. It had been showing
this off and on (more so on) for a few days. However, it has gained
support from both the European and Canadian models, as they all show
a ~950 mb low (give or take a few mb) heading into the east central
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northeasterly wind gusts to 25 knots will
prevail through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...

Synoptically, the pattern will remain largely unchanged through
the weekend. The net effect for most locations will be continued
cold and dry surface conditions with gusty winds in the typical
gaps. A deep upper level trough remains parked over the entire
southern half of the state. Within the trough remains a broad
cyclonic circulation over the Northern Gulf. To the west of this
circulation, northwest flow over the warmer Cook Inlet and Gulf of
AK waters continues to produce bands of snow over north and west
Kodiak Island. On the eastern side of the circulation, there is
more moisture available which is leading to widespread snow
showers near Middleton Island and Cordova. Over the mainland, cold
temperatures remain largely dependent on exactly where the winds
are blowing and how much cloud cover is drifting through the area.
This forecast package has warmed some of the overnight lows in
places like the Susitna Valley and W Anchorage where winds will
remain breezy.

As we go through the weekend, the biggest change will a strong,
fast-moving low that sweeps up the eastern side of the trough
near Yakutat Sun morning. The forecast models are struggling
greatly with this feature and how it interacts with the current
circulation in the Gulf, so we have kept changes to a minimum
overnight. At the very least, it will enhance snow chances
markedly for the NE Gulf Coast (to include Valdez) where several
inches are expected. Some of that snow looks to pass through the
Copper River Basin bringing some light accumulations there as
well. This strong low will also serve to pull some even colder air
at 850 mb (5000') further south. Temperatures at that level look
to reach down into the 30 below range. If winds and temperatures
continue to line up, this will likely spell wind chill advisory
level conditions (-40F) for Thompson Pass as early as tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska remains currently situated between an upper low
centered in the northern Gulf and a strong upper high over the
Bering. This is leading to strong northerly winds aloft and thus
colder surface temperatures moving into the region. High and low
temperatures will continue to gradually fall as the aforementioned
upper low shifts westward this weekend. Wind Chill Advisories
remain in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones
through noon Sunday, though may need to be extended further.
Mostly sunny conditions should prevail across the area through
early next week, however onshore show showers/blowing snow are
possible across Bristol Bay and portions of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface low becoming vertically stacked near Kamchatka is
leading to the weakening of its associated front. As such,
rain/snow showers and gusty easterly winds will diminish over the
western Bering/Aleutians through today. Subsequent lows will
approach from the North Pacific Sunday and Monday, however will
remain far enough offshore to have any significant impacts. Strong
upper level high pressure will bring more benign conditions
farther east. Isolated flurries remain possible into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

For Sunday and Monday, the interaction between low pressure in
the northwest Gulf and a ridge inland will continue to produce
gusty outflow winds through bays and passes. Gales and heavy
freezing spray will remain likely across Kamishak Bay and the
Barren Islands. A front associated with the low will be situated
along the coast with southerly small-craft winds (and possibly a
small area of weak gales) over the central Gulf, behind this
feature. By late Tuesday, there is an increasing potential for a
strong gale-force (and potentially a storm-force) low (~950mb)
lifting north into the Gulf, reaching the Kenai Peninsula by late
Wednesday.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

Widespread small-craft winds and some gales will linger into early
Monday as a low near the western Aleutians continues to dive
southwest away from the Chain. Gusty northerly winds will
persist across the rest of the Bering and eastern half of the
Chain through mid-week with the strongest winds and greatest
potential for heavy freezing spray across the far eastern Aleutian
Chain and AKPEN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Moving into early next week, the core of the persistent upper-
level low centered over Kodiak Island will shift slightly west.
This shift looks to be enough to introduce a more southerly flow
over the Gulf and advance a potential storm-force low north from
the Pacific for late Tuesday into Wednesday. As it reaches the
Southcentral coast, its upper-level energy will phase with the
aforementioned low and reestablish the upper-level low back over
Kodiak Island through the end of the week. This pattern would
favor a push of gusty southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and
snow across the Southcentral coast, perhaps pushing inland a bit,
in association with the surface low through late Wednesday. After
that, conditions across the Southcentral coast look to remain
unsettled with a southeasterly flow continuing across the northern
Gulf. Elsewhere across the Southern Mainland, it looks to remain
quite cold as arctic air remains in place at the surface along
with northeasterly winds, especially for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley. Some clouds and snow could spill over the Alaska Range by
mid-week as the low in the Gulf nears the Kenai Peninsula. Farther
west, high pressure sliding south across the western Bering and
Aleutians will keep gusty northerly winds and snow showers going
through midweek. A weak surface low then looks to track across the
Bering by the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 155 161
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 121 127 128 130 131 138 139 150 175 176
         177 178 185 411 412 413
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 127 129 130 138 141
         150 160 165 179 180 185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM