Gale Warning 832, NWS Anchorage, AK

289 
FZAK51 PAFC 301558 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

Updated 131

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-310445-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure builds into the Gulf today. A 973 mb North Pacific 
low extends a front into the southern Gulf on Thu.

$$

PKZ119-310445-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. N wind gusting to 30 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-310445-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-310445-
Resurrection Bay-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Rain
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-310445-
Prince William Sound-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-310445-
Port Valdez-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-310445-
Valdez Narrows-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-310445-
Valdez Arm-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-310445-
Passage Canal-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Snow showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-310445-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-310445-
Barren Islands East-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-310445-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-310445-
Chiniak Bay-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-310445-
Marmot Bay-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-310445-
Shelikof Strait-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-310445-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-310445-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-310445-
Kachemak Bay-
658 AM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

299 
FZAK51 PAFC 310038
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-311315-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK 
INLET...

Weak high pressure builds into the Gulf through Thu evening. 
A 969 mb low in the central Gulf on Thu night moves to near 330 nm 
south of Middleton Island at 972 mb on Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-311315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-311315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-311315-
Resurrection Bay-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-311315-
Prince William Sound-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 
ft after midnight.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-311315-
Port Valdez-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Patchy 
freezing fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-311315-
Valdez Narrows-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-311315-
Valdez Arm-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-311315-
Passage Canal-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Snow showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-311315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-311315-
Barren Islands East-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-311315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-311315-
Chiniak Bay-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-311315-
Marmot Bay-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-311315-
Shelikof Strait-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-311315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-311315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-311315-
Kachemak Bay-
338 PM AKST Wed Dec 30 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
543 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Deep southerly flow between a nearly stationary trough centered
over the Western Bering and a ridge of high pressure over the
Interior/Yukon Territory continues to bring widespread cloudcover
and scattered rain/snow showers to the Southwest mainland. Just to
the east of this cloud cover, subsidence with the high pressure
allowed for a clear and cold morning today, along with some patchy
fog around Upper Cook Inlet.

A shortwave trough within the southerly flow over Kodiak Island
brought rain to the area today. This feature will continue
progressing northward this evening, and will be the focus for
light snow for much of Southcentral overnight. A weak low under
this shortwave trough is beginning the cross over the AKPen where
it is bringing rain and wet snow to the area as it progresses
northward. The western Bering low continues to slowly weaken and
drift westward. Winds from this system have now fallen below gale
force, but otherwise is not producing significant impacts outside
continued scattered shower activity.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

In general, synoptic model agreement remains good through
Wednesday leading to above average forecast confidence for much of
the area. There are some very minor timing differences with how
quickly the shortwave over Kodiak Island will move northward into
Southcentral early Wednesday morning that is producing some
uncertainty in the onset/dissipation of any snowfall, but
confidence is good in the forecast trends over the next 2 days.
Model agreement also remains very good with the extremely deep
low that will move into the Bering by Thursday. There still
remains around 10 mb in spread in this systems extremely low
central pressure between the most aggressive EC and least
aggressive NAM. The forecast continues to favor the GFS as a
middle ground solution. As far as impacts from this system
however, there is very good agreement in the location and timing for
highest winds and seas into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light/variable winds will continue
until overnight tonight, when a few hours of IFR snow and around
1 inch of accumulation is expected. As is mentioned in the model
discussion above there is some uncertainty in exact timing of
this feature, but there is generally good confidence that VFR
conditions will redevelop again after 18z on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

In the next two days, a mix of rain and snow will move across
much of Southcentral and Kodiak Island. A frontal boundary over
the northern Gulf will drive heavier rainfall inland this evening
before transitioning to snow along Prince William Sound and
Anchorage Bowl northward tonight. Meanwhile, warm temperatures
over southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island will maintain
precipitation in the form of liquid throughout most of the
forecast period.

A stacked low over Shelikof Strait will bring another round of
snowfall across the Bowl and Southcentral by Wednesday and
Wednesday night. GFS and NAM struggles a bit on the placement of
the upper low, with the GFS aiming to keep the upper low over
Anchorage Bowl and delay its motion eastward in the next couple
days. NAM whips the upper low past Anchorage Bowl by Thursday
morning and parks it over Prince William Sound through Thursday
night. Should the upper level low linger over the Anchorage Bowl
or PWS, new updates to the forecast will be provided. For now, the
amount of snowfall would likely be more over the Anchorage Bowl
than other areas tonight.

Much colder temperatures aloft will linger between the Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin before spreading eastward toward
Valdez and Thompson Pass on Thursday. At 850 mb, environmental
temperatures upstream will continue to fall to -16 degrees
Celsius by Thursday night. The potential for patchy freezing fog
around Port Valdez and Thompson Pass is feasible starting
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Light winds near Valdez
northward and along the southern Cook Inlet and lower temperatures
in the next couple nights will invite freezing fog in those
areas. As a result, it'll be relatively quiet and a bit cooler in
the next couple days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...

An upper level short-wave trough and surface low along the Alaska
Peninsula will lift northward across the Bristol Bay region
tonight through Thursday, bringing periods of light precipitation.
The airmass is warm enough to produce mostly rain this afternoon
and evening, but expect a transition to mostly snow overnight.
Snow accumulation will be light, with an inch or two at most by
Thursday afternoon. The remainder of Southwest Alaska will be on
the fringes of this system, with patchy light precipitation.

A ridge of high pressure will build overhead Wednesday night
through Thursday, leading to dry conditions, cooler temperatures,
and most likely areas of fog. For Thursday night through Friday,
a strong front associated with a hurricane-force low along the
western Aleutians will near the Southwest Alaska coast. It looks
like ridging over the mainland will hold the front at bay, so most
areas will likely remain dry. However, expect an increase in
easterly winds, especially along the immediate coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...

A large low spinning over the western Bering Sea will continue to
produce showers and gusty winds across much of the region through
Wednesday. Attention will then shift to what could end up being a
record-breaking storm. A weak low near Japan will rapidly
intensify ahead of short-wave trough moving out of Asia, aided by
a 200 kt+ upper level jet and extreme thermal gradients
between a sub-tropical air mass over the Pacific (850 mb
temperatures of +12 degrees Celsius or warmer) and a polar
airmass over Asia (-20 degrees Celsius near the coast). This low
will bottom out as it reaches the western Aleutian Islands
Thursday morning. Models continue to trend deeper with the central
pressure, with the various solutions ranging from 919 mb to 930
mb. This will rival the Bering Sea storm from November 2014 which
developed from the remnants of Typhoon Nuri. The estimated
central pressure of that storm was 924 mb. In any case, the
combination of extremely low pressure and rapidly falling pressure
as the storm arrives will lead to widespread storm force to
hurricane force winds along the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea
Wednesday night through Thursday. The low will stall along or
north of the western Aleutians, which means the most extreme
weather will remain in that area. The frontal system will progress
eastward across the Bering Sea and Aleutians Thursday through
Friday, weakening as it progresses eastward. Winds will remain
elevated along the Aleutians the entire time, as arctic air feeds
into the back side of the storm.

Have issued a High Wind Warning from Adak to Atka for the leading
front with southeasterly winds. At the moment it appears the
strongest core of winds on the south side of the low center
Thursday will remain away from populated islands. This could
change if the low track shifts, so stay tuned to the latest
forecasts.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska:
Confidence remains high for a broad low center to gradually drift
northwards over the southern Gulf on Friday with gale force winds
likely north of the low, or near the northern Gulf Coast. Winds
should decrease to small craft levels as the low and associated
front weaken from late Friday to early Saturday. Forecast
confidence decreases from Saturday to Sunday as the aforementioned
low slowly drifts towards the Gulf Coast and continues to weaken.

Several smaller lows may rotate around the broader circulation
this weekend and potentially track across the southern Gulf with
locally small craft to gale force winds possible as they push
eastwards. However, confidence for these individual low tracks is
poor at this time. This uncertainly stems from the placement of
the Gulf low by the weekend and from differences in the evolution
of the extremely deep low spanning across the Bering during the
forecast period.

Aleutians/Bering:
Forecast remains on track for an extremely deep to potentially
record setting low to track across the Western Aleutians and into
the western Bering Thursday into Friday. By Thursday evening, the
center will be positioned north of Attu with widespread storm
force winds wrapping the low to the west of Adak and across much
of the Bering, with an area of hurricane force winds likely
between Attu and Adak across the Rat Islands. Southeast gale to
storm force winds are also expected ahead of the low's front as it
tracks through the Central Bering/Aleutians and Pribilofs on
Friday. Waves as high as 40-55 ft will be possible on Friday near
the Pacific coastline of the far Western Aleutians until winds
weaken below storm force early Saturday. By Saturday, there is
good confidence the low will stall in the far western bering as it
slowly fills with winds weakening to gale force on Saturday, then
dropping to mostly small crafts from late Saturday to Sunday.
Winds along the front will quickly diminish as the boundary also
stalls in the eastern Bering on Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Despite continuing to have the remnants of a potentially record
setting low in the Bering, the weather for much of the southern
mainland for Saturday look quite benign with high pressure
dominating most areas. There is good agreement in low pressure in
the extreme southern Gulf through Saturday, that will produce
outflow winds to the typical channeled areas of the Gulf Coast,
however this does not look to impact most interior locations.
Starting Sunday, this Gulf low pressure will begin to lift into
the north Gulf Coast, likely bringing with it warming conditions
and a chance of precipitation to the Gulf Coast/Southcentral. By
Monday, model agreement becomes very poor, so forecast confidence
for early next week is very low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 185.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 177 178.
Storm Warning: 175 176 411 413.
Gale Warning: 119 130 185 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
MARINE/LONG TERM...AS/DEK