Gale Warning 827, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 28, 2020, 2:57 PM AKST (23:57 UTC)

Expired

Dec 29, 2020, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

539 
FZAK52 PAFC 282357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291230-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 958 mb low 250 nm north of Kiska moves to 190 nm north of Attu at
968 mb by Tue evening then to 300 nm northwest of Attu at 976 mb 
Wed evening. A 979 mb low 250 nm south of Cold Bay crosses the 
Alaska Peninsula near Sand Point at 985 mb Tues morning then 
dissipates over Nunivak Island Tues evening.

$$

PKZ150-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. From 
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291230-
Bristol Bay-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-291230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 20 kt 
becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291230-
Unalaska Bay-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft late.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 60 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291230-
Adak to Kiska-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft Bering side...23 ft Pacific 
side. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 65 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291230-
Kiska to Attu-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 60 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 65 kt. Seas 43 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-291230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 45 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-291230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
257 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 30 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 28, 5:07 AM AKST, 9 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad, vertically stacked ~950mb low is currently weakening in
the central Bering. As such, gusty winds and rain/snow showers
will continue across the entire Bering/Aleutians. The heaviest
precipitation has ended over Southwest Alaska, however widespread
rain/snow showers are continuing as a number of shortwaves
propagate around the main upper low. Farther east, a potent vort
max is tracking south to north across the Gulf coast. This
combined with strong southerly flow aloft between the
aforementioned upper level Bering low and a ridge centered over
the Panhandle is leading to widespread precipitation. Heaviest
snow and strongest winds are confined to higher elevations over
the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while much of the western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage bowl will remain downsloped in cross-
barrier flow, with only brief light rain/snow showers likely under
the aforementioned shortwave/vort max.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic model agreement remains good. Winds in Anchorage remain
somewhat in question. The latest NAMNest shows gusty
southeasterly winds making it into town. This would significantly
warm temperatures, possibly into the lower 40s. In any case, even
if winds remain light/variable, minimal precipitation is expected
given the cross-barrier flow.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings will generally persist. Ceilings may briefly
drop to MVFR as brief showers are possible over the terminal,
particularly through the morning. Southeasterly surface winds are
likewise expected to develop this morning, becoming light and
variable by early afternoon. Moderate wind shear will continue
early this morning until surface winds switch to southeasterly and
become unidirectional with winds aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong frontal boundary extends from Prince William Sound and
southward through the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This front is nearly
stationary today and will slowly move eastward tonight. This will
keep the precipitation heaviest in eastern Prince William Sound
with some rain and snow showers persisting in the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. The western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valley will mostly downslope out though some light
precipitation may sneak across the mountains.

The biggest change in the forecast today is in the Anchorage and
Matanuska Valley where the southeast winds are expected to move
into the Anchorage bowl early this morning and persist most of the
day. This will also increase temperatures and highs around 40 are
now expected around the Anchorage Bowl. These winds are already
mixing into the Matanuska Valley and pushing temperatures toward
40 degrees there as well. Temperatures should be lower Tuesday as
the winds will have subsided which are the main driver of the
temperatures today, but it will remain rather mild for this time
of year around much of Southcentral into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread light snow is expected to develop from interior
Bristol Bay north to the Kuskokwim Valley this morning as a
trough lifts across the Alaska Range. As scattered snow showers
wind down this morning over the Kuskokwim Delta, a second
shortwave lifting north will allow snow to redevelop over the
beginning this afternoon. This system will lift to Norton Sound
by early Tuesday morning, signaling an end to the light snow from
Kipnuk to Hooper Bay.

An area of low pressure will then lift north across the AKPEN on
Tuesday with gusty easterly winds increasing and a mix of rain
and snow developing along the coast, first from Dillingham and
Togiak Tuesday morning to the Kuskokwim Delta coast by early
afternoon. The combination of snow and gusty winds along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast could produce periods of blowing snow
through late Tuesday before the precipitation comes to an end.
Areas of rain and snow are then expected to develop over interior
Bristol Bay Wednesday as low pressure spins up north of Kodiak
Island. By late Wednesday, this round of precipitation is expected
to wind down as the low moves farther away and a ridge builds
over Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread gales will continue from the Pribilofs south and west
to the Central and Western Aleutians through Monday as a 954 mb
low slowly tracks westward over the Western Bering. Scattered rain
and snow showers will also persist over the Bering and much of
the Chain today, enhanced by multiple upper-level shortwaves
pinwheeling around the main upper-level low. One shortwave moving
over the the Western Aleutians this afternoon will usher in colder
air in its wake, changing any mixed rain/snow showers to all snow
by Monday evening.

This shortwave will phase with a second shortwave lifting north to
the AKPEN for Tuesday, helping to draw a low south of the AKPEN
northwestward. This low will parallel the Southwest coast with
southeasterly gales and mixed precipitation through Tuesday
night.

By late Wednesday, a rapidly strengthening North Pacific low will
track north toward Attu. This system will lift a storm-force front
over the Western and Central Aleutians by Thursday morning as the
expected sub 940 mb low approaches Shemya.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska:
Good forecast confidence on Wednesday/Thursday for no significant
winds or waves. Model guidance shows the potential for a small
area of gale force easterly winds in the southern portions of the
Gulf on Friday.

Aleutians/Bering:
Model guidance are in good agreement on a sub 940 mb low lifting
north from the Pacific and moving over the central Bering and
western Aleutians Wednesday night to late Thursday. There is a
risk for more widespread coverage storm force winds than currently
forecasted Wednesday night through Thursday night for the western
and central Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active pattern will hold over the central Bering and western
Aleutians Thursday through Friday with a rapidly intensifying (sub
940 mb) low lifting south of the Aleutians and moving over the
Bering. Gusty winds and the potential of heavy precip, including
wintry mix, will cross the Aleutians Wednesday night through
Friday. After Friday, this low weakens and moves over the western
Bering. Model guidance diverge with the next potential storm
force low paralleling the Aleutians, but unsettled weather will
the continue with the risk for winds and precip over the weekend.

For Southcentral on Thursday, a trough moves from the western
Gulf to northeastern Pacific with a ridge over mainland AK. A
couple of weak shortwaves passes through the southern portions of
the gulf and AKPEN Thursday through Sunday. Southcentral will be
dry Thursday through Fri, but model guidance diverge with timing
of the next precip late Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119 125 150 160 165 170 172-180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2020Every gale warning in 2020

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.