Gale Warning 781, NWS Anchorage, AK

041 
FZAK51 PAFC 141308
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150200-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK
INLET... 

A surface trough over the Gulf approaches the Prince William Sound 
Mon morning, then moves inland and dissipating. A front enters the 
southern Gulf Mon night and persists through Tue. An area of low 
pressure lingers over the northern Gulf between Tue afternoon and Wed
morning.

$$

PKZ119-150200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt early becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt shifting to SW wind 25 kt then diminishing to 
15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150200-
Resurrection Bay-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...SE wind up to 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts to 
40 kt south of Caines Head early. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming N wind less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150200-
Prince William Sound-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150200-
Port Valdez-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150200-
Valdez Narrows-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150200-
Valdez Arm-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150200-
Passage Canal-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 25
kt near Whittier developing in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
10 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150200-
Barren Islands East-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
5 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150200-
Chiniak Bay-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150200-
Marmot Bay-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150200-
Shelikof Strait-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150200-
Kachemak Bay-
408 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt early becoming S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

793 
FZAK51 PAFC 141726 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150415-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK
INLET... 

A surface trough over the Gulf approaches the Prince William Sound 
Mon morning, then moves inland and dissipating. A front enters the 
southern Gulf Mon night and persists through Tue. An area of low 
pressure lingers over the northern Gulf between Tue afternoon and Wed
morning.

$$

PKZ119-150415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt early becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon.  
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt shifting to SW wind 25 kt then diminishing
to  15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150415-
Resurrection Bay-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming N wind 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150415-
Prince William Sound-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft  subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150415-
Port Valdez-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150415-
Valdez Narrows-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150415-
Valdez Arm-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150415-
Passage Canal-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 25 kt near Whittier developing in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow and  rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150415-
Barren Islands East-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas  5 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150415-
Chiniak Bay-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150415-
Marmot Bay-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150415-
Shelikof Strait-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft  subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150415-
Kachemak Bay-
826 AM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt early becoming S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKST Sun Dec 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A massive upper level trough extends northwestward from the North
Pacific through the northern Bering Sea, which ties to upper lows
seen at both ends of the upper trough axis this morning. To the
north and east of this trough, a high amplitude upper level ridge
extends northwest from the eastern Gulf through Southcentral to
beyond Yukon River. Meanwhile, moisture streaming across the Gulf
of Alaska to Southwest AK and across the eastern Bering enhances
mixing rain/snow along the coastal areas of Southwest AK and
AKPEN, with steady moderate rain over Kodiak City into early this
morning. Warm air advection associated with the trough will
continue to spread across the Gulf today, while colder
temperatures will linger upstream and around Copper River Basin.
Over the area which the upper level ridge parked, mainly dry
conditions prevailed. The overnight low temperature across the
region varies from the lower 20s to lower 30s, such as Anchorage,
portions of Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. While
several locations like AKPEN and Homer saw overnight low
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s, this was a reflection of
downsloping.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models indicate a fairly close placement of the synoptic features
through Tuesday morning. A developing surface trough over the
Gulf will bring increased mixing rain/snow across Prince William
Sound on Monday. Two low pressures emerging along the opposite
ends of the aforementioned trough will veer in opposite
directions. A low farthest east will steer north through the
northern Gulf before moving inland on Monday afternoon. The other
low to the far west of the Gulf will cross AKPEN and Bristol Bay
through Sunday night, then enters Kuskokwim Bay by Monday
afternoon before moving inland. Models show a few Northwest
Pacific lows entering the Aleutians and the Bering Sea starting
Tuesday morning if not sooner, but there's uncertainties with the
placement of these developing lows days ahead.

Based on the current upper level pattern in comparison with the
surface solutions, the potential for increased snow showers and
rain is high over Bristol Bay and AKPEN, while rain will continue
over Kodiak Island through at least this evening. As a result,
the model forecast confidence for the first 48 hours is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue. A surface pressure and wind
gradients will strengthen through Monday in response to a surface
trough moving through the northern Gulf. However, northerly winds
will remain just below 15 kt through at least Mon morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2..Sun and
Mon)...A couple of strong fronts will bring rain and wind to the
coast while much of the interior will remain dry with slightly
warmer temperatures. The pattern over the Gulf is quite complex.
An elongated trough stretches from the Alaska Peninsula all the
way down to Washington State. Within this trough are multiple
pieces of upper level energy and several developing surface lows.
There is some warm air trapped within the trough as well as
continued warm (45F at buoy 46076) sea surface temperatures. As
cold air continues to bleed down the west side of this trough, it
is creating just enough shear to help to generate some of these
perturbations. This makes it challenging for the weather models
to nail down on the finer scale details. However, one thing that
looks quite certain is that the pattern will be slow to shift
until late tonight. This means continued rain for Kodiak and
continued gale to storm force winds over much of the Gulf.

By tonight, a wave of energy will consolidate and help to lift the
entire trough from south to north. This should push the frontal
boundary into Southcentral AK. This will allow for the
precipitation to move in earnest into coastal locations such as
Seward, Whittier, and Portage Valley. Precipitation looks to fall
as rain near the immediate coastal sites with temperatures in the
upper 30s. However, not far above sea level, the rain should turn
back over to snow with freezing levels struggling to rise to 500
ft or so. Several inches of snow accumulation are once again
expected for Turnagain and Thompson Pass. Thanks to the
orientation of this front, very little if any precipitation will
make it over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. As low pressure
stays over the Northern Gulf, expect breezy north-northeast winds
to persist for much the populated areas from the Mat-Su Valleys
down through the Anchorage Bowl. These winds will help keep the
temperatures slightly warmer, but also serve to make the wind
chills feel colder.

The next chance for some light snow for much of the area returns
on Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday afternoon)...

A low moving near Kodiak Island will slowly move northward over
Bristol Bay. Light snow will continue for Dillingham and areas
north and east through Monday afternoon. Snow will likewise
persist across the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Both of these regions
will also likely see periods of reduced visibility with blowing
snow occurring in gusty northeasterly winds. Areas on the leeward
side of the Alaska Range, including King Salmon will remain
mostly downsloped and therefore not see much precipitation,
though light accumulations remain possible, mainly in the early-
morning hours on Monday. While total accumulations elsewhere
remain a bit more uncertain, highest totals are most likely in the
Dillingham area, with up to 9 inches possible (with higher
amounts farther north over the Kilbuck Mountains). Approximately 3
to 5 inches are expected along the Kuskokwim Delta coast with
amounts diminishing quickly farther inland. As the aforementioned
low moves offshore by Monday evening, the snow will shift slightly
east, though will become more scattered as the low weakens. An
additional 1 to 2 inches are possible for the Kuskokwim Valley and
northwestern Bristol Bay through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will
be diminished by this time, thus blowing snow will not be a
concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday afternoon)...

Gusty northeasterly winds associated with a low moving near Kodiak
Island will bring snow and periods of blowing snow to the Alaska
Peninsula through Monday morning. Approximately 3 to 6 inches are
possible between Egegik and Port Heiden, although these could be
lower farther east near the Alaska Range where initial mixed
precipitation could occur due to warmer temperatures from
downsloping flow. More benign conditions are expected elsewhere
through Monday under a weak upper ridge. A series of lows and
associated fronts will bring rain/snow and gusty winds to the
western and central Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Confidence is average to high for a storm force
low to move northeastward from the North Pacific towards Southeast
Alaska Monday night through Tuesday. This system may graze the
central Gulf with small crafts but any gales and storms are
expected to remain across the eastern areas of the Gulf.
Confidence is low beyond Wednesday afternoon in regards to where
the next potential gale force system tracks.

Bering Sea: Confidence is average for a gale force system to
impact the western and central Bering Sea Monday night through
Tuesday. The potential is there that this storm may be a storm
force low but there remain some intensity discrepancies. Beyond
Tuesday night, confidence is low on whether or not another
potential gale force system develops and affects the eastern
Bering Sea or rather benign conditions will prevail with sub small
crafts.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The weather pattern from mid week through the first half of next
weekend continues to look quite dynamic. The subtropical jet
stream is expected to remain strong over the North Pacific with a
deep Arctic low/trough anchored somewhere over the Yukon and
Mainland Alaska. More often than not, the subtropical jet will
phase with the northern polar jet stream energy. The combination
of these two will continue to spawn storm systems anywhere from
the western Bering/North Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska with the
details of each of these being entirely uncertain
(intensity/track of each one). Bottom line for this period is
expect periods of sensible weather impacts with occasionally quiet
conditions between any systems.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV