Gale Warning 76, NWS Anchorage, AK

460 
FZAK51 PAFC 201205
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-210100-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 mb low near Seward will move to near Whittier late tonight and
weaken to 998 mb then dissipate Tue morning. Weak high pressure will
build over the Gulf Tue and Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-210100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-210100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-210100-
Resurrection Bay-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-210100-
Prince William Sound-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-210100-
Port Valdez-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-210100-
Valdez Narrows-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-210100-
Valdez Arm-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-210100-
Passage Canal-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming E by mid morning then becoming 
Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-210100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-210100-
Barren Islands East-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-210100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-210100-
Chiniak Bay-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-210100-
Marmot Bay-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-210100-
Shelikof Strait-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-210100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-210100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt or less. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...N wind 10 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-210100-
Kachemak Bay-
305 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

808 
FZAK51 PAFC 210026
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211345-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 mb low 30 nm south of Seward weakens along the north Gulf 
Tue morning. Offshore flow develops and continues through Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-211345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt decreasing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211345-
Resurrection Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211345-
Prince William Sound-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211345-
Port Valdez-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211345-
Valdez Narrows-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt in the evening decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211345-
Valdez Arm-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211345-
Passage Canal-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 
5 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211345-
Barren Islands East-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 
5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211345-
Chiniak Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211345-
Marmot Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211345-
Shelikof Strait-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-211345-
Kachemak Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough extends from eastern Russia to across
eastern Bristol Bay to south of the Alaska Peninsula. This feature
is helping to support a weak baroclinic zone which extends north
from the eastern Alaska Peninsula to over interior Bristol Bay.
Observations and radar imagery shows light snow falling along this
band. A moderately strong surface low over the east-central Gulf
of Alaska is moving northwest. Its leading edge of its associated
front band is spreading light snow west across the North Gulf
Coast and Prince William Sound. Generally fair skies and cold
temperatures were observed across the remainder of the mainland.
Partly to mostly cloudy conditions with open and closed cell
cumulus snow showers were observed with cold advection across the
Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically the models are all in fairly good agreement in the
short term. The biggest challenge will be in the details of
snowfall across Southcentral tonight and Monday. We will be
leaning closer to the NAM/Canadian Regional.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Lower ceilings and snow will work it's way in from the
east overnight. There is some uncertainty in timing, but expect a
period of IFR conditions in snow sometime Monday morning, most
likely between 12Z and 18Z. Lighter snow and MVFR conditions will
then likely hold through Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A surface low over the central Gulf will move northwest tonight
to just southwest of Prince William Sound. Precipitation will
continue to spread to the west, making its way towards the
Chugach Mountains. Snow could be heavy at times on the eastern
Kenai through Monday morning, especially over the higher terrain
of eastern Turnagain Arm (Girdwood to Turnagain Pass).

For areas around Cook Inlet, there will be chances of snow
through Monday night as southerly flow aloft brings moisture into
the region. This, combined with waves of energy rotating around a
lifting upper level trough, and cold enough temperatures
remaining at the surface, look to provide the conditions necessary
for snowfall across much of Southcentral. For areas around Cook
Inlet and the Mat-Su Valleys, a general 2 to 4 inches is
possible. Despite these cold surface temperatures, the air mass
associated with this system is considerably warmer than what has
been present across the region for the last few days, so
temperatures look to increase into the upper teens to lower 20s
for the Anchorage Bowl by late Monday. There is the potential
for a rain/snow mix across Prince William Sound and along the
immediate coast of the Kenai Peninsula as temperatures warm
even more.

Snow looks to remain across the Matanuska-Susitna Valleys into
Tuesday morning, albeit much lighter than the accumulations
expected earlier in the day. By Tuesday night, we should dry out
with scattered snow showers remaining in the Copper River Basin
and a snow/rain mix across the eastern Prince William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Wednesday)...
An arctic air mass will remain in place, however, a weak front
and trough from the Bering will move ashore tonight over the
Kuskokwim Delta. There will be increasing clouds in this area as
well as a chance for snow. Given the weak nature of the system,
accumulation is not expected. The Kuskokwim Valley will likely
remain frigid with low temperatures approaching -30F again despite
the mid-level overcast currently overhead. Behind this front,
into the middle of the week, dry conditions will return and a
colder airmass will settle back into place along with offshore
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Wednesday)...
Shishaldin Volcano continues to erupt. So far ash seems to be
limited with the plume, which is carrying to the southeast over
marine areas. Ashfall amounts beyond a trace are not expected at
this time. A weak trough over the eastern Bering Sea will keep
small chances for snow showers as it moves onshore over the next
couple days. Behind the trough a colder air mass will spread
numerous snow showers over the western and central Bering Sea. The
pattern shifts by mid-week with a gale-force front affecting the
western Chain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

After quiet weather across the Gulf on Wednesday, a low moving
into the eastern Gulf will bring the threat of north to
northwesterly gales through the Barren Islands and south of Kodiak
Island. There is some disagreement in the track of the low, but a
westerly track and stronger low could result in storm force winds
in those same areas, primarily Thursday night into Friday morning.
Gales will continue through the day Friday.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

A strong low meandering south of the western Aleutians is expected
to produce easterly gale force winds, with intermittent storm
force winds possible, for all three days across all of the western
and central Aleutians and adjacent waters. Where the strongest
winds set up will be determined by the exact track of the low and
associated fronts. Strengthening high pressure over the northern
Bering will also produce gale force outflow winds through the
eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and near Cape Newenham. The
strongest winds in these areas are expected Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through Sunday)...

A stagnant, slow-to-change weather pattern is expected to set up
across Alaska and the Bering Sea throughout the entire long-term
forecast period. A stalled out low is expected to set up south of
the western Aleutians, it's northern periphery will cause strong
winds and rain across the central and western Aleutians from
Wednesday through Sunday. Any fronts associated with the low may
briefly increase both the winds and the precipitation intensity.
Moving east from there, an area of high pressure over the
Pribilofs Wednesday morning will move over the west coast of
Alaska and intensify with time through the weekend. This will have
several effects: first, it will allow an Arctic air mass to
reestablish itself across much of mainland Alaska from Friday
through the weekend, resulting in another round of well-below
normal-temperatures across all of Southern mainland Alaska.
Second, it will cause gusty winds to develop, especially through
the mountain gaps such as Thompson Pass, the Seward area, the
Barren Islands, and south of Kodiak Island. The combination of
falling temperatures and gusty winds will almost certainly cause a
renewed round of wind chill concerns, both in Southwest and
Southcentral. The cold and gusty outflow winds currently appear to
be strong enough around the Anchorage area that freezing fog
concerns appear unlikely.

The last and certainly most uncertain element to the long term
forecast will be the tracks of a series of lows that are expected
to move through the Gulf through the long-term period. All of the
models agree that lows will move through the Gulf, so it's highly
likely that unsettled weather will be the norm across coastal
areas. The lows will each have the potential to produce snow for
coastal communities, spread some cloud cover inland at times,
which will make the temperature forecast more difficult, and
increase the winds through the gaps even further, adding both to
the wind chill concerns and possibly localized blizzards where the
strong winds and heavier snow could combine. Thus, despite an
otherwise stagnant weather pattern, the forecast will remain
challenging and active, especially for Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK/TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

AKZ181-200430-
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
440 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

...Trace or dusting of ashfall from Shishaldin Volcano possible
for False Pass and vicinity...

Another distinct eruption of Shishaldin Volcano was detected in
Satellite Imagery this afternoon, with an ash plume tracking
southeastward from the Volcano. This may lead to a trace or
dusting of ashfall for False Pass and nearby areas over the
next few hours.

Ash is an eye and respiratory irritant and is abrasive. Those with
respiratory sensitivities should take extra precautions to minimize
exposure. Protect electronics and cover air intakes if ashfall is
expected or confirmed. Remove ash from surfaces with water if
possible to prevent excessive accumulation.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
752 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

AKZ181-200845-
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
752 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

...Trace or dusting of ashfall from Shishaldin Volcano possible
for False Pass and vicinity...

As of 745 pm AKST, satellite imagery and pilot reports indicate
that Shishaldin Volcano, 45 nm southwest of Cold Bay, continues to
erupt. An ash plume is tracking east-southeast from the Volcano.
This may lead to a trace or dusting of ashfall for False Pass and
nearby areas over the next few hours.

Ash is an eye and respiratory irritant and is abrasive. Those with
respiratory sensitivities should take extra precautions to minimize
exposure. Protect electronics and cover air intakes if ashfall is
expected or confirmed. Remove ash from surfaces with water if
possible to prevent excessive accumulation.