Gale Warning 757, NWS Anchorage, AK

491 
FZAK51 PAFC 052020 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-060915-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the southwestern Gulf and moves to the north Gulf 
coast Sun morning. A 961 mb North Pacific low moves to 180 nm south
of Kodiak Island Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-060915-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. 
Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-060915-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-060915-
Resurrection Bay-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Seward. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-060915-
Prince William Sound-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-060915-
Port Valdez-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-060915-
Valdez Narrows-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-060915-
Valdez Arm-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-060915-
Passage Canal-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-060915-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-060915-
Barren Islands East-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-060915-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. N of Dangerous Cape, seas 15 ft building to 24 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-060915-
Chiniak Bay-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-060915-
Marmot Bay-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-060915-
Shelikof Strait-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-060915-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-060915-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-060915-
Kachemak Bay-
1120 AM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

214 
FZAK51 PAFC 060020
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-061300-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the southwestern Gulf tonight and moves north
through the Gulf. It reaches the Southcentral Coast Sun Morning. 
A 945 mb North Pacific low supporting this front moves to 150 nm 
southeast of Kodiak Island Mon morning and weakens to 966 mb.

$$

PKZ119-061300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to 35
kt out of the Copper River Delta in the evening. Seas 8 ft. Rain and
snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft in
the morning building to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-061300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft in the morning building to 17 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-061300-
Resurrection Bay-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-061300-
Prince William Sound-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-061300-
Port Valdez-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-061300-
Valdez Narrows-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-061300-
Valdez Arm-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-061300-
Passage Canal-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-061300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and widespread rain
showers.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-061300-
Barren Islands East-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft
building to 10 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-061300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft building to 25 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-061300-
Chiniak Bay-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-061300-
Marmot Bay-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers
and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-061300-
Shelikof Strait-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain and widespread 
snow showers.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-061300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-061300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-061300-
Kachemak Bay-
320 PM AKST Sat Dec 5 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Fri Dec 4 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad weak upper trough extends south across Southcentral
Alaska. A weak short wave moving through the trough brought a
little light snow to the Copper River Basin. Shallow surface
inversions over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley trapped
low low level moisture allowing for low stratus and patchy fog
which lingered into the afternoon hours today. A weak short wave
moving east over Southwest Alaska is squeezing a little moisture
in the form of flurries out of the stratus over the region. That
said, there are a few areas in the eastern portion of the area
which have little cloud cover. A surface low over the West-
Central Aleutians is heading east and weakening producing some
snow and rain along the Western and Central Aleutians. A second
low center, located south of Unalaska, is moving northeast and
bring strong easterly winds and rain from the Western AKPEN to
the Eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(through Monday afternoon)...
The main feature will be a storm force low heading north toward
the Gulf this weekend. The NAM/GFS slower solutions are preferred
over the faster ECMWF. Tweaks to winds and Pops/QPF will likely
be required.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR to LIFR conditions are possible with stratus and fog
during the overnight and morning hours. Light winds will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low clouds have persisted across areas surrounding the Knik Arm
and Turnagain Arm this afternoon, and a further expansion of
these low clouds is likely again tonight with very weak synoptic
flow in place. Some patchy fog is also likely. Any areas that
manage to sneak in some clearing tonight are likely to see low
temperatures head below zero.

The next significant weather maker will lift out of the North
Pacific Saturday night, with briefly accumulating snow expected
in Kodiak early on Sunday morning before a quick changeover to
rain. Late Sunday the front associated with this storm system
pushes towards the Gulf Coast with precipitation starting as snow.
The precipitation will gradually mix with rain near the coast and
lower elevations from the eastern Kenai through Prince William
Sound Sunday night into early Monday.

The Anchorage Bowl looks to stay mostly dry through much of
Sunday due to cross-barrier flow. Chances for some light
precipitation making it over the Chugach look to increase a bit on
Monday. The precipitation type around the Anchorage Bowl could be
an issue at that time, with models indicating a stout temperature
inversion that could result in a snow/freezing rain mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday
through Monday)...

The main weekend weather story for Southwest is windy, clear, and
cold. High pressure over the northern Bering and a low approaching
the AKPEN will bring some brisk northeasterly winds to the
Southwest mainland. Clear skies and little diurnal heating should
allow temperatures to drop a few degrees from Saturday into
Sunday. Overnight on Saturday wind chill may reach as low as
30 below. A slight pattern change will begin to take place for
the interior late Sunday as high clouds to the north of a warm
front move over Southwest. This should help to bring temperatures
back above the 0F mark.

The AKPEN will be much more active than the mainland as the north
Pacific low approaches on Saturday. Precipitation is expected to
remain as snow but southern coastal areas like Cold Bay and Sand
Point may see some rain mix in. By late Sunday night the front is
expected to be just east of the western Alaska Range. Downsloping
should help to warm coastal areas from Nelson Lagoon north to King
Salmon. Some precipitation may make it over the mountains in the
form of snow. By Monday, light snow may push into the Middle
Kuskokwim but accumulations are expected to remain below 3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Active weather is expected across the southeastern Bering through
Monday. This is due to a broad and deep North Pacific low. This
low is expected to move south of the AKPEN on Saturday and then
drift slowly northeast towards the Gulf by Sunday night. A storm
force front is expected on the Pacific side of the Chain from
Dutch Harbor to Chirikof Island on Saturday. As the storm moves
east, the winds will pivot to the north resulting in strong gap
winds over the eastern Aleutians. For the eastern Bering, strong
offshore flow and heavy freezing spray is expected near the coast.
By Monday winds and waves will subside as the low moves into the
Gulf.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Gulf of Alaska: Fresh to strong winds will persist until Monday
night. Over Kamishak Bay and southern Cook Inlet (adjacent from
Anchor Point), strong northerly winds and hazardous wave heights
peaking near 11 to 13 ft will diminish by Monday night into
Tuesday morning. As the low races through the northern Gulf, it
loses its energy. Its strong winds begin to weaken too by Monday
evening. Winds will gradually drop near 20 kt between Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Solutions become a bit sketchy by Day 5, so will
focus mainly on Days 3 and 4 which will be a bit quieter for the
forecast area.

Bering: Minimum gales possible over the eastern Bering Sea Mon
into Tuesday. The focus shifts to a strong low approaching the
Central Aleutians on Wed. There will be a wide swath of gales with
the system and front as it sweeps north and east across the
Bering/Aleutians Wednesday through Friday. There is also a strong
possibility that embedded storm force winds will accompany this
system. Stay tuned for updates as confidence increases.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The model performance between Monday and Tuesday (Day 3 and 4)
shows the placement of synoptic features in close proximity,
except the GFS is a bit distant from most solutions. After day 4,
there's a lot of uncertainty among the models, yet they pick up
the next potential storm from the Northwest Pacific around the
middle of the week. Shortwaves from the upper low will make their
way across Southcentral and beyond the AKPEN through at least
Tuesday morning. Southerly winds bringing warm air advection to
Southcentral will yield to a rainy pattern for the first two days.
Over Southwest Alaska, a nearly stationary long wave from interior
Alaska extends southwestward to Nunivak Island on Monday morning.
Models pick up this upper level feature and a nicely uniform area
of northerly flow, including a broad area of cold air advection
over the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile, warm air advection continues
to extend over the AKPEN and fills parts of Bristol Bay through
Tuesday. An upper ridge over the Bering will either shift eastward
or settles over the central Bering until the longwave over
Southwest AK phases out. All in all, the forecast confidence is
moderate to high for Days 3 and 4.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 150 155 172.
Gale Warning: 130 132 138 139 160-171 173-176 179-185.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 140 160 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB