Gale Warning 717, NWS Anchorage, AK

192 
FZAK62 PAFC 162358
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171700-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 51N 161W moves into the Gulf by Thu afternoon. A
977 mb low at 50N 178E moves to 55N 172W at 972 mb by Thu afternoon 
and then moves to 57N 163W at 976 mb by Fri afternoon. A 985 mb 
complex low moves over the western Aleutians by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171700-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171700-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171700-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171700-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

394 
FZAK62 PAFC 171224
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180230-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 mb low at 54N 174W moves through the eastern Bering to near
56N 167E at 976 mb Sat morning. A second 976 mb low at 54N 165E 
moves to 55N 174W at 986 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TODAY...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

220 
FZAK62 PAFC 172344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181515-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 mb low at 55N 172W moves to 56N 169W at 973 mb by Fri
afternoon and then moves to 57N 161W at 978 mb by Sat afternoon. A
complex 982 mb low at 56N 172E Fri afternoon moves to 56N 177E at
988 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

856 
FZAK62 PAFC 181240
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190145-
340 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low near 576N 171W moves to 57N 167W at 976 mb by Sat 
morning then moves inland near 58N 157W at 984 mb by Sun morning. 
A complex 981 mb low near 55N 170E remains nearly stationary 
through Sat morning then moves to 57N 166E by Sun morning. A 965 
mb North Pacific low pushes a front to the western Aleutians by 
Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough is in place along the western Alaska coast
while an upper level ridge extends across the eastern part of the
state along the Alcan border. Moisture associated with a low in
the southeastern Gulf continues to be advected inland over
Southcentral. Light snow showers are falling across much of the
area from the Kenai Peninsula north to the Mat-Su Valleys. Light
snow also extends eastward over the Copper River Basin. Meanwhile
farther west, a low centered over Adak is slowly tracking
eastward, spreading rain and cloud cover across the Aleutian
Chain. As the trough centered over the western half of the state
slowly lifts eastward, snow showers will continue over the
Kuskowim Delta and Bristol Bay region this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good agreement through the short term. By
Wednesday afternoon, there is disagreement regarding the position
of a low tracking across the Alaska Peninsula and over Kodiak
Island into the Gulf. Farther west, models continue to struggle to
resolve a complex low over the Bering through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow will continue overnight. A period of heavier
snow is expected around 9-12z which should cause the worst
conditions within the TAF window.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tuesday
through Thursday)...

Moisture on the backside of a low in the eastern Gulf, continues
to propagate across Southcentral this afternoon. This will
allow for a continuation of the snowfall we've seen today through
the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

Tomorrow morning into the early afternoon, a strong, upper level
shortwave looks to provide more lift. This, combined with upslope
flow, will provide for an increase in snowfall intensity for the
western Chugach early tomorrow morning for a 3 to 6 hour period.
Snowfall intensity, due to the shortwave, will also increase along
the coastal areas of Prince William Sound, as it moves from west
to east through the day on Wednesday.

Another system is on track to approach the southwestern Gulf
Wednesday night. As the low moves towards Kodiak Island, a wintry
mix of precipitation is anticipated. Additionally, gale force
northeasterly winds are expected down Cook Inlet and into Shelikof
Strait. Offshore flow will continue to strengthen with the
increasing pressure gradient as this system approaches the
northern Gulf Coast. Expect gusty winds through the Matanuska
Valley, Copper River Delta, Thompson Pass and Valdez waters.

Temperatures will remain on a downward trend through the forecast
period for the Copper River Basin as cold air aloft settles into
the Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...
Areas of very light snow will persist tonight, primarily over
interior Southwest Alaska, as an upper trough swings through.
A weaker trough will follow behind on Wednesday, maintaining low
clouds, patchy fog, and a few flurries across the region. There
has been a change in the forecast for a storm tracking south of
the Alaska Wednesday and into the Gulf of Alaska Thursday. This
storm will take a further north track, with support from a
negatively tilted trough aloft. As a result, expect snow to
overspread much of Bristol Bay Thursday afternoon through
evening. Could also see snow make it up to the Kuskokwim delta,
though confidence in that is lower. Nonetheless, accumulation
will be light. Some locally gusty northerly winds from roughly
Dillingham westward will also produce some blowing snow, which
will reduce visibilities at times. This will all quickly wind
down Thursday night into friday as both the low and upper trough
exit. Friday then looks quiet as a ridge briefly moves overhead.
Never really see any significant low level winds or temperature
advection, so low clouds and patchy fog will likely remain in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...
Progressive cyclonic flow aloft, with a plethora of embedded
short-waves will lead to development of multiple compact lows over
the next few days. Forecast confidence in the track of most of
these storms is quite low. Fortunately, they will generally move
through any one area pretty fast and the stronger winds will be
confined to a small area near the low center. At the moment, it
appears the strongest of these lows will be one that tracks from
the North Pacific to near Adak Wednesday night, then eastward to
south of the Pribilof Islands Thursday night. Expect high end
gales on the south side of this low. The overall pattern will
produce rain and snow showers, with steadier precipitation near
low centers.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: There is a very good agreement that a gale force
low will impact the Gulf on Friday. Most of the gale force wind
activity is expected to be on the southern side of the low center.
Model guidance spreads out after this with the possibility for
relatively benign conditions across the Gulf whereas the other
models are showing at least small craft westerlies across the Gulf
Saturday through Sunday which is currently what we are leaning
towards. There is potential for these to be gale force as well
but there is still uncertainty for this.

Bering Sea: For Friday and Saturday, generally benign conditions
are expected across the Bering with winds below 30 kts and seas
less than 15 feet with some rather small compact lows. The big
weather maker is a rather large gale force storm system that is
expected to impact the Bering Saturday evening through the day
Sunday which all model guidance agrees on. As a result of the
winds, waves (greater than 15 feet) will be on the increase as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

The weather pattern during the first half of the forecast time
period continues to show strong Arctic high pressure locked in
over the Interior of Alaska east to the Yukon Territory. The
subtropical jet continues to remain fairly active during this time
frame as well with multiple storms trying to move northeastward
and into the cold air that is locked in across the interior areas
of Alaska and the Yukon. Latest data suggests that coastal areas
of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and Prince William
Sound area have the best chance to see any meaningful
precipitation during this timeframe. Some of the energy from these
systems may occasionally send some light snow into the Anchorage
area and across Southwest but this time frame looks to remain on
the colder side with temperatures averaging below normal. The
exact track and intensity of any of these systems in this time
frame continues to remain highly uncertain and will become more
clearer over the coming days.

Farther west, model guidance has since come into much better
agreement across the Bering and for Southwest Alaska for a rather
large low to impact the area. The details of this system remain
uncertain as this time but the threat is there for it bring a
decent amount of warmer air northward towards Southwest Alaska
Monday and Tuesday potentially creating precipitation type issues
for this time period. Stay tuned as we continue to hone in on the
details of this system in the coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130 138 172 175-177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV