Gale Warning 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

118 
FZAK52 PAFC 180012
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181300-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low 270 nm northwest of Shemya exits the Bering to the 
north Wed afternoon. A 974 mb low 70 nm northeast of Adak Wed 
night moves 130 nm south of Saint Paul Island at 968 mb Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-181300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181300-
Bristol Bay-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Freezing spray. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181300-
Unalaska Bay-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 50 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft building to 26 ft after midnight. Widespread rain 
showers.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181300-
Adak to Kiska-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and widespread rain
showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181300-
Kiska to Attu-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
312 PM AKST Tue Nov 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 35 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt 
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after 
midnight.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

125 
FZAK52 PAFC 181238
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190200-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 955 mb low 395 nm northwest of Attu moves inland over east 
Russia by Wed evening. A 990 mb low develops 170 nm southwest of
Adak Wed evening and moves 35 nm southeast of Saint Paul at 967 
mb by Thu night.

$$

PKZ150-190200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon, Seas 12 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, S
wind 30 kt, Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190200-
Bristol Bay-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
building to 25 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190200-
Unalaska Bay-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 26 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft building to 27 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 50 kt after midnight. Seas 19
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190200-
Adak to Kiska-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and widespread rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190200-
Kiska to Attu-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 
ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 AM AKST Wed Nov 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... variable 10 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 PM AKST Mon Nov 16 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A amplified upper ridge extends north across Western Alaska. With
the exception of some cirrus over the Kuskokwim Delta and patchy
low clouds over Knik Arm and the Copper River Basin, fair skies
prevailed across much of the Southern Mainland. Surface ridging
over the Mainland and lower pressure over the Gulf gave rise to
locally gusty outflow winds from the North Gulf Coast to the
Western Kenai Peninsula. A weakening 980s gale force surface low
was observed just north of the Central Aleutians this morning. Its
associated occluded front extended over the eastern Bering Sea,
through the Eastern Aleutians, and to a triple point well south
of the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (through Thursday afternoon)...
Models are in good agreement across Southcentral with outflow/gap
winds the main weather impact for the region. Will be leaning
toward the HI-RES models and hand edits.

The pattern is fairly active out west over the Bering
Sea/Aleutians through Thursday afternoon. Models overall are in
good agreement with the next storm that will move into the
western Bering Sea Tuesday. The next storm system after that
point, which moves east along the Aleutians Wednesday night and
to the eastern Bering Sea Thursday, is still a point of
contention between the models. The good news is that the GFS/ECMWF
have come into much better agreement, so confidence of storm force
winds with this system has increased.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through this evening. IFR
conditions are possible with areas of fog during the overnight and
morning hours Tuesday. Light winds will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An approaching upper level ridge combined with northerly surface
flow will continue to bring clear skies and colder temperatures to
Southcentral through mid-week. Patchy fog is possible overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning near Knik Arm. If this becomes more
widespread, low temperatures may not fall as much as forecast.
Offshore flow will gradually increase Tuesday as a low tracks
northward along the Panhandle, increasing the pressure gradient
along the coast. Moreover, the aforementioned ridge will continue
to track eastward, and this will cause mid to upper winds to
becoming more aligned with the surface flow. As such, gusts
across Thompson Pass, Valdez and the Copper River Delta could
approach 60 mph Tuesday night into Wednesday. Other areas such as
Whittier and Seward will likewise see gusty winds, although these
are not expected to be as strong. A low will move near Kodiak
Island by Thursday morning, bringing the potential for rain/snow
by that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a dome of high pressure over the interior that continues
to impact SW AK. Expect dry conditions for another day except for
Nunivak Island and Nightmute through Hooper Bay. In satellite
imagery and on several webcams, cirrus in advance of a front is
already present for some locations in SW AK. Wednesday, light
showers will impact the coastal communities, but the moisture
will not reach the interior SW AK on Wednesday. Thursday, the
chances for showers increase, and the thermodynamics suggest any
moisture that reaches the ground will fall as snow. There might be
a few tricky places like King Salmon, Togiak and Hooper Bay, but
generally expecting light snow on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A parade of lows will impact the region. A low north of Atka
will move towards the Pribilofs tonight and continue to fill.
As a result, the winds associated with this system will weaken.
Tuesday, this low will be over St Matthew Island. The low's
remnants will become absorbed into the longwave pattern Tuesday
night.

The next storm system to move in is already near Attu Island
today. This low will deepen and move towards Kamchatka. Cold air
will get wrapped into this system and gale force winds will
materialize. The associated cold front will impact the western
Bering/Aleutians early Tuesday. Late Tuesday/Tuesday night, this
front moves into the central Bering. By 12z Wednesday, the models
have the anchoring low at an intensity ranging from 954 mb to 959
mb.

On Wednesday, a new low will move out of the North Pacific and
towards Adak. The models have been waffling a bit with this
system, but the Aleutians can anticipate more windy and wet
weather. The surface low should be between Dutch Harbor and St
George Island on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A low in the southeastern Gulf will produce gap winds along the
northern Gulf coast through early Thursday morning. Another low
arrives over the western Gulf Thursday afternoon bringing small
craft level winds with gale force winds likely through narrow,
channeled terrain, including over Kamishak Gap and the Barren
Islands. By Friday morning, a storm force low approaches the
western Gulf, spreading in gales and storm force winds over Gulf
waters through Saturday.

Bering Sea:

There is increasing confidence that a storm force low in the North
Pacific will lift northward into the Bering by Thursday. This
storm force low is expected to track northward into the northern
Bering Friday evening. A second gale force low forms on the heels
of the first and tracks northward over the Bristol Bay area. There
is lower confidence in the strength and track of this second
system, although storm force winds are possible. A third low
arrives late Saturday that introduces a potential for gale force
winds, but confidence is extremely low at this time given
extensive model discrepancies.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Friday through Monday)...

The long term begins with a highly amplified pattern as a deep
upper level trough over the Bering remains in place. Meanwhile, an
upper level ridge builds over the mainland. As the upper level
trough ejects shortwaves eastward, this pattern will support a
series of surface lows developing near the Alaska Peninsula area
and tracking eastward into the Gulf. By the weekend, the ridge
retreats to the north allowing for the formation of a broad upper
level trough that should persist over the mainland through Sunday
night. By Monday, the active pattern continues over the western
Bering as there is growing model consensus that a strengthening
low will enter the western Bering Monday afternoon.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 178,411.
Gale Warning: 127,128,174-177,179,185,412-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO