Gale Warning 658, NWS Anchorage, AK

097 
FZAK52 PAFC 160441 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161715-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 mb low 245 nm south of Attu moves to 145 nm west of 
Mekoryuk at 999 mb and dissipates Tue afternoon. Its front moves 
to the eastern Bering for Tue afternoon. A 1003 mb low Mon morning 
moves to 195 nm northwest of Attu at 957 mb Tue afternoon. Its front
moves over the Western Aleutians and Bering through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161715-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161715-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161715-
Bristol Bay-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161715-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161715-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight.  Seas
8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161715-
Unalaska Bay-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161715-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161715-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161715-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161715-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161715-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after 
midnight. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161715-
Adak to Kiska-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain. 
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft Bering side...28 ft Pac side. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side... 22 ft Pac
side. 
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161715-
Kiska to Attu-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 29
ft subsiding to 23 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161715-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161715-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161715-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161715-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
741 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low remains present yet again this morning over the
Gulf of Alaska. This low has been meandering in generally the same
place for the last couple of days. As a result, rain showers are
continuing on the northwest side of the low, primarily impacting
Middleton Island. Weak flow aloft across much of Southcentral
this morning is resulting in areas of low stratus and dense fog,
especially around Palmer where visibility has been at 1/4 mile or
less for much of the evening into the early morning hours.
Generally, low stratus has been observed in the Copper River Basin
with areas of patchy fog but not as dense as it has been in the
Matanuska Valley into Anchorage. The Susitna Valley when looking
at nighttime microphysics remains mostly clear and with light
winds prevailing. Due to the light winds, a good radiational
cooling regime has set up and temperatures have dropped below
zero.

Southwest Alaska remains under the influence of a strong upper
level ridge building into the region this morning. As a result,
strong northerly flow is being observed out ahead of this ridge
which is causing cold air advection to occur across much of
Southwest bringing at times gusty winds. Besides for some winds,
much of Southwest remains under a mostly clear to partly cloudy
sky with temperatures mainly in the single digits and teens with
20s along the coastal areas.

The eastern Bering including the Pribilofs and the eastern
Aleutian Chain remain under northerly flow at this time as the
upper level ridge axis remains off to the west. As a result, cold
air advection continues across these areas as can be seen on
nighttime microphysics by the puffy look to the clouds (cumulus).
These clouds form when cold air moves over a relatively warm
water surface creating an unstable atmosphere. Occasionally, some
of these cumulus grow tall enough to produce a rain/snow shower
that briefly lower visibility and ceilings.

The central Bering is being dominated by the upper level ridge
moving over the area which will continue eastward today. The
western Aleutians and western Bering are continuing to see the
winds pick up as the next storm force low approaches aided by a
140-150 kt jet stream aloft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features through the short term forecast period. The main forecast
challenges going forward the next 3 days across Southcentral will
be the gap winds and how strong these winds become. Mostly the
hi-res model guidance will be the models of choice for the short
term to capture the gap winds along with some hand edits. All
model guidance remains in agreement on the storm force low moving
into the Bering Sea today through Monday. Beyond that, for Day 3
(Tuesday), model guidance is converging on another storm force low
moving northward towards the western Aleutians/Bering but with the
center staying west. Its front is the main concern for moving
through the Bering and the Aleutian Chain. Some differences remain
in the overall intensity and exact track but moderate to high
confidence is there for another strong front to impact the
Bering/Aleutians Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Areas of fog (sometimes dense) is present this morning
across the Anchorage Bowl which is expected to occasionally make
it into the terminal this morning as low level moisture remains
present. When it does expect LIFR/IFR conditions. Drier air aloft
is expected to get mixed down throughout the morning and into the
early afternoon as offshore flow increases during the day. This
will lead to mainly VFR conditions through the remainder of the
TAF package but the risk continues to exist for some vicinity fog
once again this evening into the overnight hours that may briefly
lower visibility and ceilings to MVFR conditions. Light winds will
persist throughout the TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...
A strong, high amplitude ridge over the central Bering will shift
eastward today through Monday, then set up shop directly overhead
of mainland Alaska on Tuesday. Persistent northerly flow on the
east side of the ridge will maintain dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures across Southcentral. A low currently in the Gulf will
be pushed southward into the Pacific the next couple days as the
ridge gets closer. Thus, after a few snow showers this morning on
Kodiak, dry conditions will settle in there as well.

Meanwhile, gap winds will persist along the coast in response to
multiple weak short-waves dropping southward through the area,
periods of cold air advection, and tight surface pressure gradients.
While there will be an increase in the overall low level flow
inland, there isn't enough forcing to to bring this wind down to
the surface. As a result, think fog will linger from Anchorage to
the Kenai Peninsula, though it should be fairly localized. Do
expect increasing winds through the Matanuska River Valley, with
some wind eventually moving through the Palmer/Wasilla area.
However, the initial arrival and strength of wind is tricky, as
forcing is weak. Expect a least a little bit of wind this
afternoon to mix out the dense fog that has been sitting over
Palmer since last evening.

It does look like winds will strengthen region-wide Tuesday
through Tuesday night in response to a deep low tracking up the
west coast of the lower 48 and to Southeast Alaska. There is
uncertainty in exactly how deep of a low this will be when it
reaches the Panhandle, but all solutions agree on a significant
tightening of pressure gradients and strengthening low level
offshore flow. This pattern looks particularly favorable for the
Valdez area, so have upped winds there in the latest forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
morning through Tuesday)...

Northerly flow is producing cold air advection across the area
with clear skies and cold temperatures. The temperatures will
continue to cool through Monday but warm slightly on Tuesday as
clouds and warm air advection affect the area. High pressure will
move across the area Monday with areas of fog possible across the
Kuskokwim Delta. Tuesday, clouds will increase with chances of
rain and snow near coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
morning through Tuesday)...

Cold advection will persist across the eastern Bering/Aleutians
today, bringing continued snow showers to the eastern Aleutians
through the southern AKPEN with some light accumulations expected.
Snow showers will taper off this evening as the cold air
advection weakens.

Farther west, a storm force low will approach the western
Aleutians today, with this storm continuing northeast towards the
Pribilofs late Monday as it gradually weakens below Gale force.
This low will bring rain across the Aleutians and Bering through
Tuesday.

Another Gale force front will approach the western Aleutians by
early on Tuesday, with a Gale to Storm force low in its wake
approaching the western Bering Tuesday afternoon, still some
uncertainty on how strong this low will be.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:
Expect a deep low to approach southeast Alaska on Tuesday. This
will lead to strengthening winds across the Gulf. Of most
significance, this will ratchet up gap winds along the north Gulf
coast and Prince William Sound, likely reaching gale force but
with some potential for storm force depending on the exact depth
of the low near the Panhandle. The pattern will begin to shift by
Thursday, with the remnants of a Bering front likely reaching the
Gulf.

Bering Sea:
A very large storm system will lift northward across the western
Bering on Tuesday through Wednesday, with a frontal system
spreading out north and east across the entirety of the Bering
Sea. This looks like a storm force low, though most of the region
can expect gale force winds. A new potentially potent storm looks
like it will then rapidly form and deepen along the Aleutians
Wednesday and move into the southern Bering on Thursday. The
current forecast advertises small craft to gale winds, but with a
strong upper level jet and lots of cold air feeding into the storm,
expect this could easily end up being storm force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The forecast period will commence with a high amplitude ridge in
place over the eastern Bering. Looking west, the models ping into
a surface low north of Dutch Harbor with a second surface low
southwest of Attu Island. The GFS and the ECMWF are in decent
agreement with the timing and the tracks of the lows. Day 5
(Thursday/Nov 19th) the global models advertise a 3rd low spinning
up south of the central Aleutians with the track staying south of
the chain and moving towards the Gulf Of Alaska. A fourth surface
low will be at the doorstep of Attu and Shemya by Day 7
(Saturday/Nov 21st). Very confident that this pattern will be
progressive and active. Not much of a reprieve from winter in
sight.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 111
Special Weather Statement 145.

MARINE...Storm Warning 175 176 177 178
Gale Warning 411 412 413 414 130 131 150 155 173 174.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/PJS