Gale Warning 646, NWS Anchorage, AK

797 
FZAK52 PAFC 110455 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

Updated zones 150, 155, and 180

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111715-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 mb low 85 nm Northwest of St Paul Island moves inland near 
Dillingham at 972 mb for Wed afternoon. Its front moves into the 
Eastern Bering through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111715-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 19 ft.
Rain. Isolated thunderstorms through early morning.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111715-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms through early morning.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt
after midnight. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111715-
Bristol Bay-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas building
to 13 ft. Rain. 
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111715-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 60 kt except SW 45 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
24 ft building to 34 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, seas
17 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 55 kt except W 50 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
32 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas  28 ft. 
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111715-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 60 kt becoming W 50 kt after midnight. Seas
32  ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111715-
Unalaska Bay-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kts. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers. 
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 60 kts in the morning. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111715-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25  ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111715-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
27 ft. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22  ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111715-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
29 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111715-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111715-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
31 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111715-
Adak to Kiska-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Bering
side, seas 20 ft. Pacific side, seas 32 ft subsiding to 25 ft
after midnight. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111715-
Kiska to Attu-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 ft after 
midnight. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111715-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 50 kt in the evening with gusts to 60 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft  building to 28 ft after midnight. Rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111715-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms
through early morning.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20  ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111715-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11  ft. Rain. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.  Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111715-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
755 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.WED...NW wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 25 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

111 
FZAK52 PAFC 111248
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-120145-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 mb low 110 nm southwest of Bethel this morning will move 
inland this afternoon. A front will enter the Western Bering 
Thursday morning and move to the Eastern Bering Friday morning.

$$

PKZ150-120145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-120145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-120145-
Bristol Bay-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-120145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt except W 50 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 32 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
28 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-120145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-120145-
Unalaska Bay-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ172-120145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-120145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-120145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-120145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-120145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-120145-
Adak to Kiska-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-120145-
Kiska to Attu-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-120145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-120145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-120145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-120145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weak upper level front has spread some cloud cover over
Southcentral this morning. The front is rapidly moving east, and
clearing over the Susitna Valley is allowing satellite to reveal
an area of stratus that is over the southern portion of the
Valley, extending south over the Kenai Peninsula. These clouds
are not producing precipitation, but may keep many areas around
the Inlet starting out the day with mostly cloudy skies. More
widespread stratus is in place across Southwest Alaska, though
some of that cloud cover is producing rain over the Kuskokwim
Delta. A developing low currently over the southern Bering will
be moving northeast into Southwest Alaska and will be the next big
weather maker for the area. Convective weather is overspreading
the Western Aleutians, where a few lightning strikes have been
detected this morning.

Temperature-wise, single digits are in the Copper River Basin,
teens in the Susitna Valley, 20s in the Mat Valley, Anchorage, and
the northern Kenai Peninsula, 30s along the Gulf Coast and most of
Bristol Bay, and temperatures around 40 are being reported from
the Kuskokwim Delta through the Western Aleutians.

In the upper levels, a 110 kt jet is over the YK valleys. Ridging
is over Southcentral. An upper level low over the Western
Aleutians is driving a 180 kt North Pacific upper level jet
eastward just south of the chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement is decently good through late Wednesday night.
One area where the models disagree a bit is where a 969 mb low
moves ashore in Southwest Alaska on Wednesday morning.
Fortunately, in this case that does not matter in the overall
forecast. The most impactful aspect of the low will be storm force
winds moving in behind the low over the eastern Bering, which is
well-agreed upon in the models. Strong winds along Turnagain Arm
and the Hillside are also being monitored for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There is a decent amount of disagreement in the models
as well regarding that, but the trends in the models and overall
pattern do not favor high winds. Forecast confidence is good.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected this morning as an area
of stratus may lower ceilings for a few hours this morning. This
evening, strong winds ahead of a front moving in will cause strong
wind shear for most of the night, which will continue into the
morning. A stray shower may drop rain as warmer air moves in.
There is a better chance of steadier light rain Wednesday morning
as the shear/downsloping winds weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A transient upper level ridge is moving over Southcentral this
morning which will lead to a pleasant day for most of the area.
The next storm is in the southern Bering Sea with a front that
will make it to the Kodiak area this afternoon and bring rain.
This system is moving in from the west and is warm overall.
The precipitation type along the coasts will be mostly rain as the
front moves through. Inland, the precipitation type will be more
challenging as the warm air will switch some areas to rain. As it
was with the system over the weekend, this one will also develop a
triple point low along the front and the location this low forms
and the track it takes will be one of the biggest factors in how
this system pans out.

It is looking more and more likely that this triple-point low will
develop around Shelikof Strait this evening and then track just
south of Prince William Sound early Wednesday morning. This is
important as this track, while still bringing is some strong winds
to Turnagain Arm and the Kenai and Chugach Mountains, is unlikely
to bring warning level winds (75 mph) due to its orientation. This
low undercutting the Kenai Peninsula usually keeps the pressure
gradient from increasing to the point it will produce warning
level winds in Turnagain Arm. The front is also weakening some
tomorrow night as it moves eastward. These factors were the main
ones in deciding to cancel the High Wind Watch for Turnagain Arm
and the higher elevations around Anchorage.

The other tricky call is on how much downsloping will occur on the
lee side of the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna Mountains. At this
point, it looks like the majority of the precipitation on
Wednesday to the lee of these mountain ranges will see
downsloping conditions and little precipitation. What does fall
from the Matanuska Valley southward will likely be rain. The
Susitna Valley is more likely to remain snow. Colder air aloft
will sweep into Southcentral Wednesday night turning remaining
rain to snow except for along the north Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The series of fronts from lows in the Bering continues today. The
tail end of the last front is just exiting Southwest AK early this
morning. Meanwhile, the next front is approaching the coast from
the Bering and will move ashore today. Temperatures will stay
warm enough for precipitation to fall as rain except for higher
elevations in the Kilbucks and AK Range. Therefore, no concerns
for winter weather this week.

The low sending this latest front into Southwest AK will slowly
work east the next couple of days. The low center will move
onshore late tomorrow and then push inland. Strong northwest winds
behind the low center will make for gusty winds along the coast
tomorrow night as the low moves over land. Winds will diminish
Thursday as the low weakens and moves away from the coast.
Generally unsettled weather with showery precipitation will then
linger through Thursday while the low exits.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern continues for the Bering Sea. The low
that pushed a front across the Eastern Bering yesterday is now
moving through the Bering Strait and exiting our forecast area.
The next low is already moving into the Western Bering with a
front stretched across the Western and Central Aleutians. This
area of low pressure is actually a double barrel low, which means
it has two distinct low centers. ASCAT imagery show storm force
winds on the backside of this low, which we have in the forecast.
So, high confidence in the forecast as it appears to be on track.

This low will move east-northeast across the Bering the next
couple of days, keeping stronger winds moving east along the
Aleutian Chain. The low exits the Bering Sea Wednesday night and
the Bering quiets for the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A Northern Gulf low drifts southeastward through Sat. Easterly
small craft winds and waves with local gale force winds near the
capes along coastal waters through Fri. A front stretches across
the Gulf through Sat. Confidence is good for widespread westerly
high-end gale force winds to expand northeast from the Shumagin
Islands to the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay and across the
Gulf and diminish on Sat.

Bering Sea:

A front exits the Eastern Bering for Fri. Widespread northwest
small craft winds and waves with local gale force winds move
across Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula diminishing Fri. A
broad upper level trough brings a change in airmass and increasing
confidence for widespread small craft winds and waves across the
Bering with local high-end gale force winds developing across the
Aleutians for Fri and move into the Eastern Bering by Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
There remains some differences in exactly how quickly the triple
point that will develop in the Gulf will dissipate and depart
the area, but the general trend will be for improving conditions
throughout the area as high pressure builds in from the Interior
and Bering Sea. The main impacts from this pattern will be for
offshore winds throughout the Gulf Coast and Cook Inlet due to a
strong pressure gradient ahead of the riding. Over the Eastern
Aleutians/AKPen this will also likely result in widespread
rain/snow showers and gusty norther winds through the weekend.

This gradient should then begin to slacken throughout the area by
early next week, allowing for more benign conditions to setup,
especially to the South Mainland. There is significant spread in
the track of a low through Siberia by Monday, especially with the
12z EC which is the most aggressive with tracking this well south
of the Bering Strait. For now the forecast will favor a track well
north of the AOR, leaving much quieter conditions in the
forecast, but model trends will continue to be monitored over the
coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 150 155 165 170-174 176 177 179 412-414.
Gale Warning: 119 120 125 130-138 160 175 178 180-185 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/DEK